Late Night Update...
* The first round of severe weather is coming to a close. There is some chance of a second round later on. The NWS is going to cancel the tornado watch for counties north of a line from Lawrence County to Kemper County. The best course of action is for you to stay close to a good source of weather information.
* We have received numerous negative comments and e-mails tonight. Here is a sample, fresh from the comment section of the blog:
" After watching this evening "11 First Warn" I am convinced that WTOK should change the name to "11 First Bore". I can understand programming that warns of potential and/or imminent threats, but come on guys! repeating over and over is ridiculous! Haven’t you guys heard of “KISS”? keep it short and simple. Thanks for ruining what could have potentially been an enjoyable evening of entertainment."
***We received a bunch of messages like this tonight. But, I have a theory that only the negative perspectives actually leave comments or phone calls. If you liked our coverage tonight, please just leave a comment with your first name. This isn't to make us feel better - negative comments don't phase me a bit. I just want to see if people are satisfied with our efforts. Thanks**** Regardless, we'll be watching it all night tonight. And, if more warnings are issued, rest assured we'll be here.
Evening Update
* The dewpoint in Meridian has risen to 60 degrees. Sure seems like we are in the warm sector now. As warm, moist air surges northward, the chance of tornadoes will gradually increase. We will watch it closely.
* The SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch fo our counties in west Alabama. Don't be lulled into thinking the threat of tornadoes is over. As we go through the rest of the overnight hours, the threat of tornadoes will likely increase.
* Getting into a lull of sorts now. Still some scattered activity, but the flow of warnings has slowed somewhat.
* Back to watching the radar...
New Tornado Watch
* A new tornado watch has been issued for all of our Mississippi counties. Sumter, Greene, Pickens, and Hale are currently not in a watch. These counties will likely be under a watch later.
* Let me stress that this first wave is not the only show in town. These storms are along a boundary that continues to shift northward. Once this first wave moves through, more supercells currently over northern Louisiana will move through. These will also have a significant threat of tornadoes. In fact, the second wave will likely be worse than the first.
* Severe thunderstorm warnings now for Jones and Wayne.
Afternoon Update
* The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the southern half of our area under a tornado watch until 9:00 pm. They have used the rare "Particularly Dangerous Situation" wording for this tornado watch. This wording implies that they expect a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including the possibility of strong, long-lived tornadoes.
* Here's the tornado watch:
Tornado Watch* Let me again stress that this is a very dangerous situation. Today you must stay close to a good source of weather information! If you ar heading out to sunrise services tomorrow morning, please stay aware of what the weather is doing.
* The worst threat of tornadoes will stay along and south of I-20 for the next several hours, but I expect the threat to shift northward and include all of our area in the next several hours.
* We'll keep you posted.
Noon Update
* Just finished all kinds of coordination conferences with various NWS offices, EMA officials, and other meteorologists across the Southeast. Thanks to everyone, we are really breaking new ground with our level of communication.
* Here's our thinking:
A few storms fire as a warm front moves through the area this afternoon. These could be severe, with hail the big threat.
The worst of the weather comes tonight. Thunderstorms fire southwest of us and move in this direction. The overnight hours tonight will be of particular concern, with the threat of long-track tornadoes. I strongly encourage you to stay close to a good source of weather information tonight. Many people will be on the roads for the holidays, so try and keep informed on the road as well.
Sunrise services tomorrow will be very stormy. Again, if you are a pastor - you still have time to act. Purchase a NOAA Weather Radio today at any local electronics store. And, to reply to an e-mail, I DO NOT receive ANY money from the sale of weather radios. They are life-saving tools, and that's part of my job.
We could see a second wave of storms later tomorrow morning over west Alabama, and these could be rough as well. We'll keep you updated as much as possible.
* Here's a link to the new Day 1 Outlook:
SPC Day 1 Outlook* Lunch time...
Morning Severe Weather Update
* The new Day 1 Outlook is out from the Storm Prediction Center. Not much in it has changed. Still a moderate risk, with an enhanced risk of tornadoes over our area.
7AM Day 1 Outlook* I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to a "High" risk later today. Understand - a moderate risk is rare and should be taken very seriously. It conveys an enhanced threat of severe weather. But, "High" risks are reserved for only the worst days. Regardless of what the official risk is, today is a day to stay close to a good source of weather information.
* Time for our first IM conference of the day...
Midnight Weather Snack
* The new SPC Day 1 Outlook is out, and the wording is troubling:
" ***A SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES*** "
Here's the updated outlook:
SPC Day 1 Outlook* Time to hit the hay. It's been a long day today, and I get the idea tomorrow will be even longer. Stay tuned...
Evening Update
* I just finished reviewing the 0z (evening) run of the NAM model, and the numbers are still troubling:
Valid 6 pm Saturday...
CAPE: 2597.2
LI: -6.5
0-3KM Helicity: 236.6
EHI: 2.9
SWEAT: 331.8
All of these numbers indicate the potential for supercell thunderstorms with VERY large hail, wind, and a few tornadoes.
* A variety of IM conferences tomorrow. We begin at 8:00 AM with a group of meteorologists from around the Southeast. Some of the guys in this group are really sharp, I look forward to picking their brain. Then, at 11:30 AM, we'll confer with our EMA partners from around east Mississippi and west Alabama.
* We may have to deal with more storms than originally thought. I am starting to buy in to the idea that we will see two waves of severe weather, one during the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow, and another by Sunday morning. This is dependent on whether the atmosphere has time to destabilize after the first round of storms. For now we'll go ahead and leave the chance of thunderstorms in there for Sunday morning. With it being Easter Sunday, I urge anyone attending sunrise services to stay close to a good source of weather information!
* Again, if you pastor a church without a NOAA Weather Radio, take the opportunity to purchase one tomorrow morning. Take the opportunity to prevent a disaster before it happens. If you have any questions about investing in a NOAA Weather Radio, please e-mail me!
Trouble Brewing
* I have just completed the 5:00 news and a full review of the latest 18z (afternoon) computer model guidance. This looks like a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes. Here is our latest idea on how things will happen:
A cluster of thunderstorms will track across north central Mississippi late tonight into early tomorrow morning. This will strengthen the gradient between cool and warm temperatures, forming and strengthening a boundary.
A surface area of low pressure will then form over northern Louisiana and track across northern Mississippi. There will be a zone southeast of this surface low where supercellular thunderstorms develop. These storms will have very large hail and strong damaging winds.
As these storms approach the boundary I mentioned above, they will likely begin to rotate, forming mesocyclones - which often are precursors of tornadoes. The maximum area of concern for tornadoes will be along this boundary. Pinpointing its location at this point is impossible, but I urge you to check back for updates late tonight and tomorrow morning.
The storms will likely develop around noon over southwestern Mississippi. They will start to affect our area by early afternoon, perhaps earlier over our western counties (Scott, Smith, etc.) The timeframe of concern is from 1 pm Saturday until around noon Sunday.
* Thanks go out to our new IM partners in Neshoba, Kemper, and Lauderdale Counties!
Ben Dudley (Kemper County)
Jeff Mayo (Neshoba County)
Lauderdale County (LEMA)
Thanks to their cooperation, we will be able to provide you with better weather coverage!
Severe Weather Expected This Weekend...
Josh Johnson is out on the road getting out EMA friends set up on Instant Messaging, so Derek Kinkade here with you now. The IM stuff is amazing! I'm currently in a conference call with the Jackson National Weather Service via IM, so I'll report to Josh and we'll have more later.
Still very concerned about the possibility of a significant severe weather outbreak this weekend. The main time of concern for us is Saturday and Saturday night. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has outlined all of our viewing area under a moderate risk for severe storms. You can check that out here:
http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Here is part of their Day 2 Discussion..
HOWEVER...INCREASING AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RESULTANT GREATER THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN LA...CNTRL/SRN MS AND CNTRL/SRN AL.The National Weather Service in Jackson remains very concerned this afternoon about the prospects for some very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes tomorrow across most of Mississippi and part of Alabama. I am going to get this information to Josh, and he will post later on this afternoon with a full update. I am heading down to Meridian tonight, as well as one of our chase teams here at MSU. We will meet with Josh and discuss the plan of action for tomorrow. Stay safe, and if you do not have a severe weather plan or a way to get watch and warning information, now is the time to do so.
On the Road
* Heading to Scooba and Philadelphia today to get a few of our EMA friends signed up on IM with us. We had our first conference this morning, and I think it was beneficial to everyone! If you are an EMA official, please email me at josh.johnson@wtok.com and I'll get you the information.
* Still looks rough for us Saturday night and into early Sunday morning. Will post a complete update when I get back later this afternoon.
* With the possibility of severe weather near Easter, I'd just like to remind everyone of a disaster that struck almost 11 years ago to the day. It was Palm Sunday of 1994, in a church in northeast Alabama - not far from where I grew up. The children were putting on a special performance, and a tornado struck the church.
The roof collapsed, 20 people were killed and 92 were injured. Many of those killed were children, including the Reverend Kelly Clem's daughter. The most striking part of this horrible story is that they never knew it was coming. A tornado warning had been issued for their county more than 10 minutes prior to the tornado. Had they received that warning, things could have turned out dramatically different.
Let's learn from the past. Every church, home, and business in Mississippi and Alabama should have a NOAA Weather Radio. If you have ANY questions about getting a weather radio (where, how, how much, anything), PLEASE contact me via email at josh.johnson@wtok.com! NOW, not Saturday night or Sunday morning, is the time to prepare for severe weather!
Day 2 Outlook
* Very worrisome statements from the Day 2 Outlook hot off the press from the Storm Prediction Center:
Day 2 OutlookWIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. ON SATURDAY.
* Got to get a few hours sleep before hitting it hard tomorrow. Going to the Kemper County and Neshoba County EMA offices to get them signed up on our IM Conference program. If you are interested in becoming a part of these weather conferences, sign up on Yahoo IM and send a message to my username: wtok_wx
You can download Yahoo IM at the following website:
Yahoo IM
Midnight Weather Snack
* Sorry for being tardy with this entry...It's laundry night! Yes, it's that time of year again, time to brush off the washer and dryer. My mother is cringing in her sleep right now I'd imagine. On to more serious items...
* The 0z (evening) run of the models has added more questions than answers. The NAM has cut our CAPE (instability) in half from the 18z (afternoon) run. Still, I get the idea we'll have two rounds of strong thunderstorms this weekend. Here's the scenario I see:
* Wave 1 is a round of clustered (multicellular and supercellular) thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Seems like the worst of it will be after sunset, especially here in east Mississippi and west Alabama. These storms will form in southwest Mississippi and northern Louisiana and track into our area. Please keep in mind that this could change between now and tomorrow morning.
* Wave 2 is more in question. The NAM keeps us dry Sunday, but the GFS indicates more storms. Dry air pushes in Sunday morning, which will bring the sun out. The sun will heat things up and add some instability. Combine this with a deep upper trough overhead, and I get the idea we see a few more storms Sunday.
* Bottom line is that we could see severe weather this weekend. The timeframe of concern is from around 2 pm Saturday lasting through Sunday. It appears that the thunderstorms will come in two waves. The main idea is to have a good source of weather information close by throughout the weekend. MAKE SURE your church has a NOAA Weather Radio. No school, church, home, or business in Mississippi or Alabama should be without one!
Evening Update
* Just reviewed the 18z (afternoon) run of the computer weather models. I'm still concerned about the threat of severe weather Saturday afternoon. Here are the latest severe weather indices for Meridian, valid for noon Saturday:
CAPE: 3009.6
Lifted Index: -7.7
Helicity: 231.6
EHI: 4.36
All of these parameters suggest the possibility of a significant severe weather episode Saturday afternoon.
For a good read on WHAT THESE MEAN, check out and bookmark this website:
Severe Weather Parameters Explained* Will review the 0z (evening) run of the weather models and post an update tonight just after the news.
Afternoon Thoughts
* First, I'd like to send a big thank you to Gary Galloway and Ron Davis. Gary heads up the Newton County EMA, while Ron is the director of EMA for the city of Newton. We are working to get all of our EMA partners signed up on Yahoo Instant Messenger. This will allow us to instantly communicate! I will be visiting with Lauderdale, Kemper, and Neshoba counties tomorrow, and more counties in the days to come.
* Still expecting some severe weather this weekend. The latest trend is for the surface low to track further north, which would put more of our area at risk. I now think the worst of the weather will be along and south of a line from Forest to Philadelphia to Macon. Obviously, this includes almost all of our area. I'll have a full update on this situation tonight around 9:30.
* Again, let me take the chance to urge all pastors to purchase a NOAA Weather Radio for their church. No church is without a fire alarm, so it just doesn't make sense to have a church with no weather radio. Congregation members: ask your pastor about getting a NOAA Weather Radio! If he says no, ask him to e-mail, call, or come by WTOK and we'll chat!
Weekend on my mind
* Heading out to Newton County to meet with Gary Galloway of the Newton County EMA. We are trying to get all of our EMA friends signed up on Instant Messenger with us, so we can communicate instantly! This will only help both of us give you better service. If you are reading this and are part of an EMA operation in our viewing area, e-mail me and I'll come out to your office and get you set up!
* Details are beginning to emerge about the possibility of a severe weather event this weekend. Here is our current thinking:
Supercell thunderstorms develop over Texas and Louisiana on Saturday and move eastward. These will move into Mississippi Saturday afternoon, tracking across the state. Deep shear and strong instability indicate that tornadoes, hail, and wind will all be possible. The worst threat of severe weather will be along and south of Interstate 20 - places like Quitman, Bay Springs, Newton, Meridian, Waynesboro, York, Butler, and Jackson.
Here is an excerpt from the Storm Prediction Center's Day 3 Outlook:
"FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SUGGESTS AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS...STRONG 850 MB AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN E TX/WRN LA AND SPREADS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS."
Our thinking on timing and the location of the largest threat of severe weather will change, but here's a quick recap:
Threats: Supercell thunderstorms, with hail, wind, and possibly isolated tornadoes.
When: 2 PM Saturday - Noon Sunday (we'll narrow that down in later posts)
Where: Area-wide, but the area of maximum concern is along and south of I-20.
Important Note: Many churches will be holding Sunrise Services on Easter morning. It is VERY IMPORTANT that every church have a NOAA Weather Radio! Without a weather radio, you have NO WAY of getting the warning! Pastors and church administrators: If you have any questions about getting a weather radio (what kind to get, where to get it, cost, you name it), EMAIL me at josh.johnson@wtok.com.
Watching the Weekend
* The next few days look pretty fantastic. Tomorrow will feature almost full sunshine, with temperatures all the way up into the lower 70's. More nice weather will be around Friday, although we'll see a increase in the number of clouds. There is an outside chance of a shower across northern Mississippi Friday, but many locations will stay dry.
* Still watching the weekend system. A deep upper trough will be roaring through the southern Plains, while a surface low forms over northern Louisiana and moves through northern Mississippi. This is a favorable setup for severe weather, especially along and south of I-20.
* Our computer models offer differing solutions. First, the NAM is not as worrisome. It has impressive winds aloft, but does not develop a surface low. Here's that display:
NAM Surface Chart Valid Midnight Saturday NightThe GFS is far more aggressive with the development of the surface low:
GFS Surface Chart Valid Midnight Saturday NightThe European model is more in line with the GFS solution.
* Bottom line is that Easter weekend looks wet and stormy. And, some of the storms could be severe. We'll have a much better handle on this tomorrow and Friday.
Watching the Weekend
* The next few days look pretty fantastic. Tomorrow will feature almost full sunshine, with temperatures all the way up into the lower 70's. More nice weather will be around Friday, although we'll see a increase in the number of clouds. There is an outside chance of a shower across northern Mississippi Friday, but many locations will stay dry.
* Still watching the weekend system. A deep upper trough will be roaring through the southern Plains, while a surface low forms over northern Louisiana and moves through northern Mississippi. This is a favorable setup for severe weather, especially along and south of I-20.
* Our computer models offer differing solutions. First, the NAM is not as worrisome. It has impressive winds aloft, but does not develop a surface low. Here's that display:
NAM Surface Chart Valid Midnight Saturday NightThe GFS is far more aggressive with the development of the surface low:
GFS Surface Chart Valid Midnight Saturday NightThe European model is more in line with the GFS solution.
* Bottom line is that Easter weekend looks wet and stormy. And, some of the storms could be severe. We'll have a much better handle on this tomorrow and Friday.
Sunshine Returns...
* Good to see the sun out today. Temperatures getting up into the upper 60's and lower 70's across the Southeast. We certainly deserve the pleasant weather after the stormy start to the work week.
* Still expecting at least the threat for severe weather this weekend. Here is an excerpt from the latest forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Jackson:
"QUITE HONESTLY...MODEL-GENERATED BUOYANCY...SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FROM THE GFS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE (AND AREN'T MUCH DIFFERENT ON THE NAM). LIFTED INDICES AVERAGING -4 DEGREES...0 TO 1 KM VORTICITY GENERATION POTENTIAL AVERAGING 0.5...0 TO 3 KM HELICITY VALUES MORE THAN 150 M^2/S^2 EVERYWHERE...AND CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG ALL STRONGLY SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. EVEN AFTER LOOKING AT ALL OF THE INFORMATION...IT'S STILL KIND OF TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. I WILL SAY THIS THOUGH...I AM VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ENHANCED WORDING IN THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 PERIOD HAS BEEN CONTINUED IN THE AFTERNOON HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK."
* The primary concern will be late Saturday night into the day on Sunday. With it being Easter Sunday, I just want to give everyone a heads up on this threat. We'll be able to talk specifics about this event by late Thursday night and especially on Friday. Stay tuned...
Severe Weather Threat Over
* The severe thunderstorms have now pushed eastward into central Alabama. The tornado watch will be cancelled in the next few minutes for our west Alabama counties, and we'll finally be able to formally put this event to bed. While it wasn't as bad here as we had once thought, we still saw some pretty inclement weather. Our neighbors in southern Alabama and Georgia weren't as lucky as us. Still receiving reports of major damage there, with numerous injuries and one fatality.
* Our focus now turns to this upcoming weekend. I certainly don't want to alarm anyone, but it has the potential to bring us more severe weather. It's a good ways out , and a lot could change between now and then.
Right now, model data supports more of a heavy rain threat, with a surface low tracking across northern Mississippi. This type of setup generally causes any severe weather to be confined to the Gulf Coast. However, I am skeptical of tonight's GFS solution. I am worried that the surface low will end up further north...in Arkansas or Missouri. That would enhance our severe weather prospects.
With it being Easter this Sunday, I want to give a heads-up that it could be stormy at times. Here's the latest GFS model output:
GFS Valid Midnight Sunday NightAgain, this suggests more of a heavy rain setup. We'll closely monitor it over the coming days.
The European computer model suggests a severe weather threat, but confines it to the extreme Southeast (eastern Alabama, Georgia, etc.). Here's that output:
European Valid 6 AM SundayWe'll watch it closely...
* I love my job. But, I am worn out. Tomorrow's entry may be delayed until early afternoon as I catch up on some much-needed sleep. Thanks for bearing with me on that! Enjoy the sunny weather out there tomorrow!
Storms Continue
* Just saw a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Choctaw County in west Alabama. Looks like the worst of it will be across northern parts of the county, in places like Pushmataha, Lisman, Jachin, and Edna. Probably looking at some small hail and perhaps some gusty winds. It doesn't look bad enough to warrant interrupting programming right now. But, if that should change, I'll be on.
* Looks like the action is coming to an end across east Mississippi. The SPC has cancelled the tornado watch for all Mississippi counties. The watch continues for now in west Alabama, but will probably be cancelled by 11pm. I'll keep you posted.
* Looks like we might have a potent setup for severe weather again by this weekend. It's a good ways out, but we'll still need to watch it. I'll have a big blog entry on those severe weather prospects later tonight, after the news.
* Parts of Southeast Alabama and southern Georgia were really hard hit. We've seen reports of widespread damage, injuries and even one confirmed fatality. Keep those folks in your prayers...
Update
* Tornado warning just about to expire for Noxubee County.
* Still watching several storms with no formal warning, especially the one in southeast Lauderdale/northern Clarke. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for that cell soon.
* More storms firing over south-central Mississippi. The SPC has issued a Tornado Watch until 2:00 tomorrow morning for much of our area, mainly along and east of the Hwy 45 corridor. Here's that watch:
Tornado Watch 72* Back to watching the radar screen...
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings...
* Still have several of our counties under severe thunderstorm warnings. For all the warnings, check out this website below. Simply click on any warning issued by "Jackson MS":
Severe Weather Warnings* Watching closely...
Quick Update
* The Storm Prediction Center has issued a new Mesoscale Discussion for our area. They say that a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch could be required in the near future. Here's a link:
SPC Mesoscale Discussion* Time for final weather...
Weather Flaring Up...
* Just had a flurry of severe thunderstorm warnings. Right now, we have Neshoba, Newton, Scott, and Jasper counties under Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for the next 15-30 minutes.
* These storms will continue pushing east and will affect us a little later. I still anticipate a slow weakening trend once the sun goes down and we lose some heating. We'll continue to watch closely...
* Hearing word of tornadoes with at least one fatality in portions of southern Georgia. We've had it bad, but we have had it better than some others -- let's keep safe the rest of the evening and count our blessings.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
* The SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the northern part of the area, along and north of Highway 14. The watch is in effect until 8 pm tonight. Storms continue to fire across central Mississippi. There is a severe thunderstorm warning for a county or two south of Jackson with the stronger cells.
* These storms will continue moving off to the east and northeast through the evening hours tonight. They could be briefly severe, with large hail the primary threat. We'll keep an eye on things.
Things Winding Down...
* The tornado watch that was issued this morning continues to be whittled away as the storms move east. The strongest activity has now shifted into Alabama. Watching some very strong thunderstorms in Sumter and Greene counties in west Alabama.
* Sunshine is on the way. If the sun isn't shining at house now, it will be this afternoon. This, combined with a pool of cold air aloft, could kick off a few showers or storms later today. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a "Moderate Risk" across northern Mississippi for this threat. In our area, the worst of it will be along and north of Highway 14. Hail will be a big threat, but a few tornadoes could happen further north.
* Early damage reports indicate only scattered damage. Worst reports were that some chicken houses in Jones County were destroyed. Also several reports from the central part of the state.
* Thanks to Charles Daniel and the WTOK production staff for their great work this morning...
Line of Storms Heading East...
* Watching a line of powerful thunderstorms push east across the state. The worst of the weather right now is just east of Winona. I also am keeping a close eye on the storms down near Laurel that have developed in the past hour.
* We'll see the squall line move through before noon, with small hail and damaging winds the primary threat. We could see an isolated storm develop later today, but right now the threat looks pretty low. We'll keep an eye on it.
* To summarize...So far, so good. It appears as though we don't have as much instability as we thought we would. This has caused the thunderstorms to be weaker than we had originally anticipated. But, with the sun rising as I write this, that could change. We'll watch it closely...
Storms Moving East
* A line of supercell thunderstorms continues to push eastward. A new tornado watch has been issued for parts of western Mississippi:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0061.html* Things are a tad slower than we had originally anticipated. Looks like the worst of it gets here around 7 AM - Noon.
* Will continue to monitor.
Moderate Risk Issued
* Still watching the radar closely. Severe thunderstorms are in progress across northern Louisiana, some of these are producing tornado warnings. Once cell in particular looks very strong, right along I-20 east of Shreveport. These will continue to move eastward.
* The SPC has placed us under a "Moderate" risk of severe weather. Don't let the word moderate fool you; this level of risk is relatively rare and implies a serious situation. Here's the Moderate Risk:
SPC Day 1 Outlook* Tornado watches are in effect for parts of southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. These will likely be shifted eastward throughout the early morning.
* Just spoke with Derek Kinkade. He's heading for Monroe, Louisiana to intercept the storms as they move through northern Louisiana. He reports frequent lightning to his west. I'll stay in touch with Derek and pass along his updates...
* The storms won't get here for another 3-5 hours. I'm going to try and snag a quick power nap here at the station. Will post as the situation warrants...
Timeframe Change
* Going to go ahead and edit our timeframe of concern. I really get the idea some of the activity could linger into early afternoon, especially across west Alabama. For now, we'll say that the worst of it will be between 3:00 AM - Noon Tuesday.
* I'm continuing to analyze the 0z model suite. I have to wonder if we won't see another round of thunderstorms later tomorrow afternoon, especially along and north of Highway 14. This would cause our timeframe above to be extended even further. Will address this in a post in the next couple of hours.
* Beginning an Instant Messaging conference with the National Weather Service in Jackson. Will report back shortly...
0z Models Coming...
* The 0z run of the major models continues to slowly become available. The 0z NAM brings a line of supercells to near I-55 by 6:00 tomorrow morning. This worries me that we might have to extend our timeframe out a little further. Right now, we'll stick with 2:00 AM - 10:00 AM, but don't be surprised if we have to extend that out into early Tuesday afternoon - especially for our west Alabama counties.
* I have to wonder about the chances of supercell thunderstorms across northern Mississippi tomorrow. The air aloft will be very cold, and they will be close to the surface low up there. I can see a scenario where there are two areas of supercells; one in central Alabama/Mississippi and another across eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. I'm not saying that's what is going to happen -- just some food for thought.
Watching and Waiting
* We have our plan for covering this potential event. I will be manning the post here tonight until early tomorrow morning, when Charles Daniel will join me here. Derek Kinkade is storm chasing tonight and tomorrow out in the field and will be providing us with live reports via phone.
* I've been in various teleconferences and internet conferences today. We had a conference call with the NWS in Mobile and Birmingham, and an internet conference with our NWS friends in Jackson. Great job by all of the local NWS offices putting those together.
* Tornado watches have been issued off to our west. The watches include parts of central Oklahoma and eastern Texas. These will likely be shifted east as the night goes on...
Severe Weather Coming
* Continuing to evaluate the potential for severe weather early Tuesday morning. We'll have to adjust our timing somewhat...Now looks like the best chance comes between 2:00 AM - 10:00 AM.
* There is a significant threat for tornadoes and large hail. This situation bears close watching.
* Here are some numbers from the NAM model, valid noon tomorrow:
LI: -4.7
CAPE: 2060
SRH: 261.8
EHI: 3.2
For a great guide to these indices, check out the following website:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/indices.htmThese are all very favorable for supercellular thunderstorms and possible tornadoes.
* Here's the scenario as we see it right now:
A cluster of thunderstorms moves through northern and western Mississippi late tonight. We will not see too much activity from this, but our northern and western counties could see some of these storms. We'll watch it.
The big show comes after midnight. Supercells will fire across southwestern Mississippi and move east-northeast. These will likely have some large hail and possibly tornadoes. The time frame of maximum concern is early Tuesday morning, from 2AM - 10AM.
* The SPC continues to have us under a "Moderate" risk for severe weather. Here's a link to that:
SPC Day 2 Outlook
* The new SPC Outlook will be issued at midnight tonight. I will post after that with an update, if not before then.
Early AM Update
* The SPC has outlined parts of our area under a "Moderate" risk for severe weather Tuesday:
SPC Day 2 OutlookModerate risks imply a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms, and in most situations, greater magnitude of severe weather.
Here is the criteria for a "Moderate" risk, courtesy of the SPC:
- 30 reports of hail 1 inch or larger, or
- 6-19 tornadoes, or
- 30 damaging thunderstorm wind events
Our thinking remains the same on timing. I'll be along this afternoon to post another update...
SEVERE WEATHER -- SUNDAY UPDATE
*SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY*Here with the late evening update on the severe weather threat in the next few days. While our main focus is on the weather happening Monday and Tuesay, we may have to talk about another severe threat by the Easter weekend. Still too far out to talk about specifics with this, but it appears parts of the Deep South may again see areas of strong storms by then.
The thinking now remains about the same as the afternoon. Two rounds of severe weather will be possible, with both featuring large hail, damaging winds, and the possibility of tornadoes.
*ROUND 1*Supercell thunderstorms will form in the ARKLATEX region Monday and move into the Delta region of MS by Monday afternoon. Later in the evening and overnight, they should organize themselves into a squall line (damaging winds being the biggest threat), but any isolated storms ahead of the line will have the possibilty to rotate and produce tornades. It looks like the main threat at this time for tornadoes will be to the north and west of the Meridian area, but the squall line will likely affect Meridian and much of the state Monday night.
*ROUND 2*By Tuesday afternoon, the bulk of the upper-level energy (fast jet stream, around 100 knots), moderate instability, and forcing mechanism (cold front) will be close to East MS and West AL. Another round of severe weather (including supercells with isolated tornadoes) will be possible Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday evening. The air aloft will be much colder, so large hail will also be a major threat, along with damaging straight-line winds. Should we see any sunshine to allow temperatures to climb well into the 70s on Monday or Tuesday, instability values will be much greater.
*OTHER THOUGHTS...*Josh and I discussed today that the models may be under-estimating moisture return to the Deep South. With a low pressure center that strong, winds from the south, and the Gulf of Mexico 'open for business' I expect dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and possibly even touching 70 instead of the mid 60s values forecast for us. The quickest way to destablize the atmosphere is to add moisture, not heat, so this is something to keep in mind.
I expect the "Moderate" risk the Storm Prediction Center has out will be extended more to the east in future updates, and will possibly be upgraded to a very rare "High" risk. It is very possible that if we see tornadoes, some of them may be long-lived and violent. We say this not to scare people, but just to inform that as of right now, certain parameters are coming together to make for the
possibility of a major outbreak of severe weather. Until we get into the time frame in question, we can't be much more specific than that.
Once again, and we've had this written everyday, but now is the time to have a severe weather safety plan and know where you are getting your watch and warning information from. Hopefully the first place won't be from us! We recommend that EVERY home, school, church, community center, and place of business have a NOAA Weather Radio. No, we aren't getting a cut of their profits for plugging them so much. They simply work and save lives.
Stay tuned to WTOK for weather updates Monday and Tuesday, and check back on the internet for frequent updates to the Blog and main weather page. Charles and Josh will be here Monday and Tuesday for weather coverage, and I will either be out in the field or right here with them if need be. Stay safe!
Quick Afternoon Update
* Still refining our forecast for the severe weather event tomorrow night into Tuesday. Here's my latest thinking on how things will unfold:
Supercells form in eastern Texas/northern Louisiana/southern Arkansas. These cells move east throughout the afternoon tomorrow. They will likely be severe, with tornadoes a distinct possibility. Much of our day tomorrow should be dry though, with the action off to our west. The SPC has issued a "Moderate Risk" for parts of western Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana, and we are included in a "Slight Risk":
SPC Day 2 OutlookThe supercells then slowly merge into a line of broken supercells. Large hail and high winds will be present in many of these storms, with isolated tornadoes also possible.
The line moves in to Alabama early Tuesday morning. By early Tuesday afternoon, we see more thunderstorms develop over central Mississippi. These will also probably be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes possible - especially in west Alabama, where the atmosphere will have more time destabilize before the storms arrive.
* Derek will be along later this evening to update things. Again, let me reiterate that NOW is the time to review your severe weather safety plan.
