Dennis still strong...
The newest information is in regarding Hurricane Dennis. Here is the latest from the NHC's 10:00 pm CDT Advisory:
Location: 26.6 N 85.3 W
Movement: NW @ 14 mph
Pressure: 941 mb
Winds: 125 mph with higher gusts (Category 3)
We expect Dennis to continue to strengthen, possibly being a Category 4 storm by landfall. Landfall is expected near Mobile Bay, AL. We expect this to track inland and pass somewhere near Meridian. Heavy rain, flooding, and high winds in excess of 70 mph are expected.
An inland hurricane warning has been issued for Neshoba, Kemper, Newton, Lauderdale, Green, and Wayne counties in Mississippi and Choctaw county in Alabama from 5 pm Sunday until 7 am Monday.
We do not want anyone to panic, but we want everyone to be prepared. Wind damage and flooding is expected. Now is the time to prepare!
A few things to remember:
* We could be facing a widespread and lengthy power outage. Time to prepare:...Have enough non-perishable food to last a few days....Stock up on bottled water....Have plenty of flashlights and batteries....If you operate a generator, be sure to NOT use it indoors! This is not safe......Charge your cell phone and fill your gas tank....If you live in a mobile home, make arrangements to leave by late Sunday morning....Do not make plans to be on the roads late Sunday/Monday morning.
* There is also the potential for some flooding problems, so if you live in a flood-prone area, keep a wary eye on water levels. The safest bet is to make plans to spend Sunday night with a friend or relative on higher ground.
* We will also have to keep an eye out for tornadoes, mainly along and east of the center of circulation.
Check our website often as we will continue to update as the hurricane nears and the conditions deteriorate.
Dennis Rapidly Intensifying
* Hurricane Dennis is rapidly intensifying at this time. The pressure has dropped 20 mb in the last 4 hours which has increased its windspeed to 115 mph, or a Category 3 hurricane. For a reference, Dennis was at 938 mb before landfall in Cuba and we are currently sitting at 947 mb. We are continuing to watch Dennis very closely and will provide updates both on the blog and on Newscenter 11 at 6pm and 10pm.
4:00 pm CDT Dennis Update
There is an outer band of thunderstorms in Clarke and Washington County, AL that will be working its way into Chocktaw County and Wayne County shortly. We can expect up to an inch of rain in an hours time with this line as it moves to the northwest at 25 mph. This could enhance flooding potential for these areas as the main rainfall associated with Dennis moves through tomorrow. This will also loosen up the tree roots so the potential for fallen trees is increased with more rainfall.
The latest numbers are in for Hurricane Dennis at 4:00pm CDT. They are:
Location: 25.6 N 84.6 W
Pressure: 958mb
Movement: NW @ 15 mph
Winds: 105 mph...gusts to 125 mph
The NHC official forecast track has continued to slightly shift west, with landfall expected sometime in early evening Sunday near Gulf Shores, AL. We are still thinking that the storm could make landfall in the MS/AL border to Mobile Bay area before moving our direction inland. The NHC has Dennis moving over Butler, AL with sustained winds of 75 mph and higher gusts, still a hurricane. Of course where Dennis moves inland will be dependent upon where it tracks in the meantime. Regardless, we do think that we will feel potentially catastrophic effects.
Some things to remember:
* We could be facing a widespread and lengthy power outage. Time to prepare:...Have enough non-perishable food to last a few days....Stock up on bottled water....Have plenty of flashlights and batteries....If you operate a generator, be sure to NOT use it indoors! This is not safe......Charge your cell phone and fill your gas tank....If you live in a mobile home, make arrangements to leave by late Sunday morning....Do not make plans to be on the roads late Sunday/Monday morning.
* There is also the potential for some flooding problems, so if you live in a flood-prone area, keep a wary eye on water levels. The safest bet is to make plans to spend Sunday night with a friend or relative on higher ground.
* We will also have to keep an eye out for tornadoes, mainly along and east of the center of circulation.
Stay tuned to WTOK online as well as our TV broadcasts at 6 and 10 pm tonight for the latest on Hurricane Dennis.
Dennis Growing Stronger Again...
* Dennis continues to wind up over the Gulf of Mexico. Pressure is now down to 964 mb, and I would imagine we'll see an increase in winds soon. Here are the latest numbers from NHC:
Location: 25.3 N 84.2 W
Pressure: 965 mb (officially -- latest recon flight found 964mb)
Wind: 100 mph
Movement: NW 14
* Our forecast track may be shifted a bit further west. For now, we'll stick with the idea of landfall near Mobile Bay...But we may have to shift that further west, to places like Biloxi or near the MS/AL state line. We'll keep you posted. A westward shift in the track would mean more damaging wind in east Mississippi. Remember, the wind is worst along and east of the track of the storm.
* We could be facing a widespread and lengthy power outage. Time to prepare:
...Have enough non-perishable food to last a few days.
...Stock up on bottled water.
...Have plenty of flashlights and batteries.
...If you operate a generator, be sure to NOT use it indoors! This is not safe...
...Charge your cell phone and fill your gas tank.
...If you live in a mobile home, make arrangements to leave by late Sunday morning.
...Do not make plans to be on the roads late Sunday/Monday morning.
* There is also the potential for some flooding problems, so if you live in a flood-prone area, keep a wary eye on water levels. The safest bet is to make plans to spend Sunday night with a friend or relative on higher ground.
* We will also have to keep an eye out for tornadoes, mainly along and east of the center of circulation.
Dennis Reorganizing
* Cuba really took a toll on Dennis - the storm weakened considerably as it moved over the island country. But, Dennis is now back over water, and should begin to reintensifty. The amount of strengthening is in question - one model called SHIPS keeps the storm under 100 mph until landfall. If this is true, the winds around here will be more like 30-40mph. However, other models bring the strength back up to 130mph around landfall. If this solution is true, winds here would likely be more on the order of 60-70mph along and east of the center. We believe Dennis will restrengthen into a major hurricane at landfall, and will bring winds of 60-70 mph with higher gusts to parts of our area.
* There are indications that Dennis' forecast track may be shifting further west. This would bring an increased threat of wind damage to east Mississippi. Our forecast now calls for Dennis to make landfall near Mobile Bay, then track towards Meridian. Along and east of this track, there will be wind damage and power outages.
* The latest projections bring Dennis onshore Sunday afternoon, which would mean quickly deteriorating weather for us by Sunday afternoon. The worst of the weather here will come Sunday night into early Monday morning.
* Scroll down for a full rundown on what you need to do to prepare. High winds, flooding, and isolated tornadoes are all possible.
Dennis Update
* Latest numbers from National Hurricane Center:
Location: 23.5 N 82.6 W
Wind: 100 mph
Pressure: 28.73" (973 mb)
Movement: NW 14
* Dennis lost a lot of its' strength as it moved over Cuba earlier. It is now a Category 2 hurricane.
* Our thinking on the track remains mostly unchanged...Dennis will likely make landfall between Mobile Bay and Pensacola, and move NW into west Alabama and eventually pass near Meridian. Places along and east of the track will have the worst of the weather, but I get the idea that most of us will get some nasty weather out of this.
* We could be facing a widespread and lengthy power outage. Time to prepare:
...Have enough non-perishable food to last a few days.
...Stock up on bottled water.
...Have plenty of flashlights and batteries.
...If you operate a generator, be sure to NOT use it indoors! This is not safe...
...Charge your cell phone and fill your gas tank.
...If you live in a mobile home, make arrangements to leave by Sunday afternoon.
...Do not make plans to be on the roads late Sunday evening/Monday morning.
* There is also the potential for some flooding problems, so if you live in a flood-prone area, keep a wary eye on water levels. The safest bet is to make plans to spend Sunday night with a friend or relative on higher ground.
* We will also have to keep an eye out for tornadoes, mainly along and east of the center of circulation.
Afternoon Dennis Update...
* Dennis continues to move through Cuba, and will soon be emerging over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane has maintained it's strength reasonably well despite tracking over land. In fact, here are the latest numbers from the 4pm update from the National Hurricane Center:
Location: 22.6 N 81.1 W
Wind: 135 mph
Pressure: 28.02" (949 millibars)
Movement: NW 17
* Our thinking remains mostly unchanged. Landfall will occur somewhere between Biloxi and Panama City Beach, Florida, moving inland through portions of south and west Alabama. The exact track will be paramount in determining the threat to our area. The potential for widespread power outages is certainly present, especially across west Alabama.
* I want people to understand that they should prepare now - but that this track is not written in stone. There will be hour to hour changes throughout the next few days that will ultimately have huge impacts on our weather. But, we must prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Watching Dennis...
* Dennis continues as a powerful Category Four hurricane this morning, and will soon pass over Cuba and emerge back into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Model guidance continues to offer up differing solutions on the eventual track. The NHC track takes Dennis inland near the AL/FL state line around 8 pm Sunday, and moves it to a point on the AL/MS state line just northeast of Meridian by 8 am Monday. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a little sooner than that.
* We should begin preparing now for the potential of widespread wind damage and flooding across our area. At this time, the greatest threat would likely be over west Alabama, but it's too early to write that in stone. Falling trees will likely bring down power lines in many areas, so prepare now for power outages.
Here are some tips for preparing:* Avoid driving during the peak of the storm. Falling trees are a threat to both power lines and vehicles.
* Prepare now for the possibility of power outages lasting a few days. Have non-perishable foods, batteries, flashlights, and bottled water supplies that are enough to last two or three days.
* If you live in a flood prone area, now is the time to make arrangements to leave. Also, if you live in a mobile home, now is the time to arrange to spend the night somewhere else Saturday night.
* Today is the day to prepare. Secure anything outside that might be blown away in high winds (patio furniture, children's toys, etc.).
* Keep in mind that stores will likely become crowded late tonight and tomorrow. So, today is the best day to prepare for the potential affects of Dennis.
* If you have any questions about preparation for Dennis, feel free to e-mail me at josh.johnson@wtok.com! Once the track of Dennis becomes more apparent, I will post an entry detailing the exact threats to our area and when we can expect those threats. I will likely post that late tonight or early tomorrow.
Dennis still Strengthening
* Dennis is now a strong Category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, gusts to 185 mph. It is still moving along the southern coast of Cuba in an area of very warm waters. It is possible that this becomes a Category 5 before it moves over Cuba. Cuba will most likely weaken the storm, but we expect it to become a Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and maintain that strength on its approach to the coast.
* The NHC official forecast has Dennis making landfall in the Orange Beach/Pensacola area. I still think that New Orleans to Panama City is possible for landfall, but we want to stress again that landfall is not the only important factor. Dennis will be a large storm and our entire area could see impact from it. Now is the time to be prepared for the worst but of course hope for the best.
* The official numbers at 10 am CDT
Position: 21.4N 79.9W
Winds: 150 mph
Movement: NW 14 mph
Pressure: 938mb (27.69")
* We highly encourage you to check in on Dennis periodically throughout the day via a number of options. You can check out our
Hurricane Dennis Info Desk, the 24 hr forecast line, the
website, and our television broadcasts each day at 6am and again at 5, 6, and 10 pm.
Dennis Pounding Cuba
* The 10pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center is out, and here are the latest numbers on the Category 4 powerhouse Dennis:
Location: 19.9 N 77.6 W
Wind: 135 mph
Pressure: 950 mb (28.05")
Movement: NW 15
* Our thinking remains unchanged: Dennis will likely make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast, somewhere between New Orleans and Apalachicola, Florida. Places like Mobile, Pensacola, and Panama City Beach are certainly under the gun. If you have a trip planned to those areas, it might be best to cancel. Many locations will probably begin evacuations tomorrow or Saturday.
* Dennis will likely slip a bit in intensity as it interacts with Cuba. But, once the storm emerges back into the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening will likely occur again.
* Bottom line: It is too early to assure you that Dennis will or will not affect our area. But, we must prepare for the potential of a strong hurricane affecting us. The best bet is to continue checking out our
Hurricane Dennis Info Desk,
website, and television broadcasts each morning at 6 AM and each weekday evening at 5, 6, and 10pm!
Dennis Update
Dennis continues to strengthen as the center churns just to the north of Jamaica. It is on the verge of becoming a category 3 hurricane. As of 2pm, this is the latest data on powerful Hurricane Dennis:
Location: 18.6 N 76.1 W
Winds: 110 mph
Pressure: 962 mb
Movement: NW 15
This system will likely become a category three hurricane (major hurricane) within the next 24 hours. This intensity means winds will be 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Other information about major hurricanes include:
Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal.
Structural damage to small residences.
Damage to shrubbery and large trees blown down.
Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed.
Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center.
Dennis will most likely pass over Cuba which will hinder any strengthening. Dennis should move into the Gulf of Mexico by Friday night. Water temperaturs in Gulf are then certainly favorable for intensification. Some bouys in the Gulf report temperatures in the upper 80s.
Dennis is still on course for somewhere along the Gulf coast. The latest forecast track takes Dennis anywhere from as far west as New Orleans to possibly anywhere along Florida's Gulf Coast. The most likely track puts the system near Mobile and Pensacola Sunday afternoon.
Of course, any specifics on the track are much to early to tell. Stay tuned to WTOK newscasts and also check out the
Hurricane Dennis Info Desk for all the latest information.
Dennis Looks Angry...
* Dennis has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane, with sustained winds now of around 105 mph. The satellite presentation of the storm is rather impressive; good outflow, strong circulation, and an eye-like feature are all present this morning.
* Where does Dennis go? Model guidance this morning has jumped to the east, with many of the major tropical models bringing Dennis inland along the Florida panhandle and then bringing him northwest through some portion of east Mississippi and Alabama. The official NHC track still brings the storm to near Meridian as a strong hurricane. Best advice: check back with us frequently, as track forecasts can and will change.
* When does Dennis arrive? It seems to be moving a bit ahead of schedule, and we may have to bump our landfall time up to sometime Sunday afternoon or night. We'll continue to refine our forecast as Dennis approaches...
* A good source of info (along with our television broadcasts and website) is the Hurricane Dennis Info Desk:
Hurricane Dennis Info Desk
Early Morning Dennis Update...
* Dennis continues to intensify in the Caribbean Sea. Here are the latest numbers on Dennis from the National Hurricane Center's 1 AM update:
Location: 16.7 N 74.2 W
Winds: 85 mph
Pressure: 975 mb (28.79")
Movement: WNW 15
* Dennis will likely hit Jamaica later today as a Category 2 hurricane. The storm will likely continue on a west-northwesterly track, eventually moving over western Cuba and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. From there, it will continue moving through the Gulf, likely making landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast late Sunday or early Monday.
* For a full rundown of satellite and radar images, model output, and webcams, be sure to check out the Info Desk on Dennis:
Hurricane Dennis Info Desk* While it's far too early to pinpoint an exact landfall point, we do believe the highest risk area right now runs from roughly New Orleans, LA to Panama City, FL. Let me say up front that this could be a potentially historic July hurricane along the northern Gulf Coast. I urge anyone who has plans to visit the coast this weekend/early next week to watch our website, blog, and television broadcasts for the latest.
5:30 PM CDT Cindy Update
* The newest NHC Advisory is out at 4:00 PM CDT. The official intensity is 70 mph with higher gusts. Cindy is located at 28.2 N 90.3W or about 95 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The storm is moving N @ 14 mph and is expected to make its turn to the NE in the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Morgan City, LA eastward to Destin, FL. A tornado watch is also in effect for the coastal counties of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
* Heavy rain still looks like the main threat. A few strong wind gusts can't be ruled out along the coast. We will continue to watch Cindy very closely, as well as Dennis, and keep you updated. Be sure to watch Josh Johnson at 6pm and 10pm and Charles Daniel on Good Morning Meridian tomorrow morning for up-to-date information.
* The latest information, including webcams, audio forecasts, and satellite/radar imagery can be seen at the
TS Cindy Info Desk.
Cindy Update
* At 1:00 pm CDT the official intensity was raised to 60 mph. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico reported a wind gust of 70 mph just northeast of the center of circulation, however that estimate may be just a little high. The storm is still moving North at 14 mph and we are expecting a shift to a NE movement soon.
* New data in from NHC at 2:20 pm CDT:
"DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN CINDY ARE NEAR 70 MPH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. "
* We are still forecasting landfall late tonight/early tomorrow somewhere between Biloxi and Mobile. Main threats for our area continue to be heavy rain and a wind gust of 30 mph is not out of the question.
* For the latest up-to-date information, check out our TS Cindy Info Desk. Josh will provide audio updates as well as updated satellite images, webcams, and the official NHC forecast track plus much more! Also keep checking the Weather Blog for updated information!
TS Cindy Info Desk
Cindy...and Dennis
*TD 3 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Cindy in the Gulf of Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City, LA to Destin, FL. As of 10:00 am CDT, TS Cindy was located about 165 miles South-Southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving North at 14mph. Current sustained winds are at 50 mph with higher gusts. Cindy will make a shift to a northeasterly movement.
*Our current thinking is that Cindy's track will be to the right of the NHC official forecast track. We believe the system will skirt the SE LA coast and make landfall late tonight/early tomorrow near the MS/AL state line, between Mobile and Biloxi. The center of the storm will remain to our south and heavy rain will be our main threat and perhaps some wind gusts of 20-25 mph.
*Be sure to check out the "info desk" on TS Cindy. Webcams, satellites, official National Hurricane Center forecasts - it's all there in one place! Be sure to bookmark the Info Desk and check back for updates. Here's the Info Desk on Tropical Storm Cindy:
TS Cindy Info Desk*TD 4 in the Caribbean has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Dennis. This marks the earliest in history to have four named tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin. As of 10:00 am CDT, Dennis had winds of 40 mph with higher gusts and was located 355 miles south of San Juan, PR, moving West-Northwest at 18 mph. Dennis is forecasted to become a hurricane in the next 48 to 72 hrs. This is still too far out to forecast landfall and its impacts on us, however it certainly does warrant watching. We'll continue to watch Dennis and refine our forecast.
Early Morning Musings...
* Watching the latest in the tropics...Be sure to check out our "Info Desk" pages on the various tropical systems. Our "Info Desks" are simply places that you can go to get information about a specific tropical system that could affect us within 3 days. Webcams, satellites, official National Hurricane Center forecasts - it's all there in one place! Be sure to bookmark the Info Desk and check back for updates. Here's the Info Desk on Tropical Depression 3:
TD 3 Info Desk* I think the NHC track is much too far to the west. I believe the system will skirt extreme southeastern Louisiana, and ultimately make landfall somewhere between Biloxi and Pensacola. As far as intensity, I believe the system will become a tropical storm later today, and likely make landfall as a tropical storm. There is a small chance it could become a minimal hurricane before landfall, but there are no signs pointing to that as of right now.
* I'm working on getting software to offer VIDEO updates on tropical weather systems - I should have that resolved sometime in the next week or so.
Busy Day...
* We've had a few thunderstorms across parts of the area today. As of 5 pm, most of the activity was along the Highway 84 corridor, with more activity affecting Sumter and Greene counties in west Alabama. These storms should die down in time for the 9pm fireworks shows across the area!
* Tropical Depression 3 is having some trouble getting organized in the southern Gulf of Mexico. But, the water temperatures down there are VERY warm, and we certainly can't write this system off just yet. I still believe the system will make landfall somewhere along the Louisiana or Mississippi coast. As far as timing, the system will probably make landfall late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. We'll be able to better refine the forecast once a low-level circulation becomes more apparent.
* DENNIS? Computer models are indicating a stronger, more organized system forming in the Caribbean Sea in a few days. We believe that this system is one to watch! Here's the FSU MM5 output for that system (it's the one nearing the Florida peninsula):
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/mm5fsu/2005070400/slp20.png
Tropical Depression 3 Forms
* After sending a hurricane hunter aircraft into the cluster of storms in the western Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center has determined that it has formed into a Tropical Depression. Here's their official statement:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/032018.shtml?* The depression has weak low level winds, but its presentation on satellite is impressive. It shows good "outflow," which tells us that the structure of the system is getting better organized. The main issue here will be the influence of land on the system as it tracks over the Yucatan peninsula. If it can hold together and emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico, I believe this depression will quickly strengthen into a tropical storm and perhaps eventually a hurricane. If that does happen, the system will be named Cindy.
* The computer models aren't suggesting any development with Tropical Depression 3. And, they may be right - it may not survive the track over land. Tropical systems thrive on warm water, and when that supply of warm water is no longer available, weakening does occur.
* We are watching ANOTHER tropical disturbance in the extreme eastern Caribbean Sea. The FSU MM5 wants to develop this into a strong tropical system next week. Here's that output:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//mm5fsu/2005070300//slp18.png
