Severe Weather Possible Sunday Night
* Hard to believe it's the twelve year anniversary of the infamous "Superstorm of 1993". I was ten years old at the time, and that event was a major reason that I began studying weather and wanting to do weather as a career. I have some pretty amazing pictures, I'll try to get those scanned and posted by tomorrow. Here's a link to NWS Birmingham's summary of the powerful snowstorm:
Blizzard of 1993There was the Superstorm of '93, then a tornado hit near my home on Palm Sunday 1994, and then Hurricane Opal plowed through Alabama in October 1995. Seeing all of those powerful weather events at a young age ignited a passion for learning about weather that still burns deep. Looking back, I am really blessed to be here doing something I love...On to the forecast....
* I am growing increasingly concerned about the chance of some severe weather Sunday night. This is not a typical severe thunderstorm setup, but I believe we'll see some severe thunderstorms nonetheless. The "shear" -- or veering of the wind as you go up in the atmosphere -- will be strong, but we will not have much lift. There is basically no upper-level support with this setup -- but the overwhelming surface heating will lead to decent instability by afternoon.
* Here's a look at the instability (CAPE) in the lowest 3 kilometers of the atmosphere, courtesy of the latest NAM model run:
0-3 KM CAPE Tomorrow 6 PMNote the bullseye over our area.
* The fly in the ointment will be the "cap" -- a layer of relatively warm air aloft. This layer of warm air will keep vertical thunderstorm development to a minimum. However, I think this layer will erode by late afternoon into the evening, and we'll see some thunderstorms develop. Please keep in mind that the areal coverage of thunderstorms will not be that great. So, some of you will probably stay completely dry, especially south of U.S. Highway 84. In the event that the "cap" doesn't break, I would imagine we'll all stay mostly dry.
* The best chance of severe weather will be across northern parts of our area. The main threat will be large hail. I anticipate some severe weather warnings, so stay close to a source of good weather information.
* I'll post again shortly, after the new Day 1 Outlook comes out at midnight. Also, I'll post tomorrow morning with an update after the Jackson upper-air sounding data comes out.
Winds of Change
* The Mississippi Forestry Commission reports that they continue to fight wildfires across central and southern Mississippi. The good news is that we expect winds to die down tonight and our relative humidity to rise. These two factors will decrease the chance of fires. Still, to be safe, try to avoid burning if at all possible.
* Forecast is interesting, as always. I'm beginning to believe we could see a strong thunderstorm or two by tomorrow evening. The amount of lift is not very strong, but we will see a lot of sun. This will heat the lower levels of the atmosphere, which in turn will create more instability. This means that the air will rise more easily -- the basic process of thunderstorm development depends on rising air. The main threat will be hail, but we could see an isolated report of strong thunderstorm winds. We'll monitor that closely.
* Bummer for local SEC teams. MSU and Ole Miss were put out yesterday, and Alabama was sent packing by Florida today. Also, LSU was tripped up in OT by Kentucky. Kentucky and Florida will play for the SEC Championship tomorrow afternoon. I don't really have a horse in that race, but I'll watch just to see how it turns out. LSU, Alabama and MSU fans -- don't lose hope. This was only the appetizer, the BIG DANCE starts soon!
* The KINKADE report: Derek Kinkade is on vacation in New York City this weekend. Central Park saw one-half inch of snow yesterday, and temperatures there continue in the 30's. Lows tonight in New York are forecast to drop into the 20's. I hope Derek is enjoying the deep freeze as much as we are enjoying these 70's and 80's!
Final Wind Tally
* The NWS in Jackson has issued a statement about today's dry and windy weather. Here's what they had to say about it:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CST THU MAR 10 2005
...A WINDY AND VERY DRY DAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION TODAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY BROUGHT WINDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH UNUSUALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. BELOW IS A LISTING OF SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY. ALL OF THESE ARE BASED ON HOURLY OBSERVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR JACKSON INTERNATIONAL WHOSE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND IS THE FASTEST TWO MINUTE WIND OBSERVED AT ANY POINT TODAY.
LOCATION HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND HIGHEST GUST LOWEST RH
JACKSON INTL 26 MPH 37 MPH 18 PCT
JACKSON HAWKINS 23 MPH 35 MPH 20 PCT
GREENVILLE 30 MPH 38 MPH 25 PCT
COLUMBUS AFB 26 MPH 31 MPH 35 PCT
MERIDIAN KEY 26 MPH 38 MPH 20 PCT
NAVY MERIDIAN 30 MPH 38 MPH 21 PCT
NATCHEZ 24 MPH 37 MPH 15 PCT
HATTIESBURG 23 MPH 36 MPH 15 PCT
TALLULAH VICKSBURG 26 MPH 37 MPH 21 PCT
TO GIVE SOME PERSPECTIVE ON HOW UNUSUAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE FOR OUR AREA...THEY ARE HISTORICALLY OBSERVED LESS THAN ONE PERCENT OF THE TIME AT JACKSON. THE RECORD LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT JACKSON IS 9 PERCENT...RECORDED ON NOVEMBER 6TH...1987.
* Tomorrow will be windy as well, but probably not
as windy as today was. Still, please try to avoid burning in your yard, and use caution if your plans take you to local lakes for a fishing trip.
* Time to finish up the 10:00 news and get some sleep. After waking up at 3:30 AM to work the morning shift, I am one sleepy weather geek! I'll post again this weekend. Spend some time with your family and enjoy the SEC Basketball Tournament!
Brief Evening Update
* Winds still blowing at 20-25 mph across much of the Southeast. We received a report of some light wind damage (small branches blown down) at Collinsville in northwestern Lauderdale County. If you've had any damage, please leave us a "Comment" below with your location and report!
* We might have to lower our forecast for overnight lows tonight. The wind will drop off considerably, especially in west Alabama. This will probably allow temperatures to fall into the upper 30's. Wind keeps us warmer because of friction with the earth's surface. Without the wind, we may be a few degrees cooler than advertised. I'll monitor this and probably make some changes by 10:00, when we have a better idea of if the winds are really going to drop off.
* Tomorrow will be another windy day. I'd imagine we'll be placed under another Wind Advisory by the National Weather Service. Like we discussed in the post below, please avoid any and all burning! Representatives with both the Alabama and Mississippi Forestry Commission have told me to pass along that recommendation. They say that although there is no formal burn ban, that people should postpone their plans to burn for a few days. Relax, it's a GREAT excuse to lounge on the couch all day, watch basketball and order a pizza!
* Next chance of rain rolls in here Sunday afternoon and evening. We won't see a lot of rain with this, just some showers. The next significant rain will occur on Wednesday into Thursday. There are indications that thunderstorms could be involved, and we'll monitor the threat for severe weather.
Winds are Howling
* The winds are really howling this afternoon! The last observation from Key Field has the wind sustained at 22mph with gusts to 32 mph. Pretty breezy stuff. Around the Southeast, the story is the same...Many locations seeing winds at 15-25 mph with gusts to 25-35mph.
* Just received a note from the National Weather Service in Birmingham:
Please mention all outdoor burning is discouraged due to breezy conditions expected through tomorrow. Although no official ban is in place...the Alabama Forestry Commission recommends extreme caution and discourages burning at all.
* Weekend looks great, lots of sunshine. Our next chance of rain comes Sunday night. A better chance of rain and thunderstorms will come Wednesday into Thursday. There could be some threat of severe weather with this, we'll continue to monitor that through the weekend.
* I'm going to get back to my lunch and watching the Ole Miss - Alabama basketball game. It's a slow go right now, 12-11 Ole Miss lead with 10:17 left in the first half.
March Madness
* Was great to eat out at Jean's Red Door Barbeque. Great stuff! They took my picture and put it on the wall, which will probably frighten any kids hanging out there. But, at least it will keep away pests. Thanks for the kind hospitality in Meehan!
* College basketball is not my favorite sport -- that distinction belongs to college football! But, March Madness may be my favorite sporting event. It's cranking up now, with Championship Week on ESPN (all of the conferences play their tournaments). Then, we'll take a few days off and the "Big Dance" will get underway. Can't wait for those first-round games.
* I HAVE to get some sleep tonight. I'll be working for Charles tomorrow morning, so I'll get about 4 hours of sleep tonight. If I look like a zombie tomorrow on Good Morning Meridian, bear with me.
* The going forecast seems to have everything handled. Warm and dry for much of the weekend, with an outside chance of a shower late Sunday night. Next week is as muddy as a puddle, with a stalled front meandering around us and shortwave troughs moving along that front. Those individual shortwaves kick up showers, and they are almost impossible to time correctly. For now, we'll simply broadbrush Tue-Thu of next week with some small rain chances.
* Apologize for any problems posting comments or accessing the blog. Apparently, our host site is having some server issues. We'll try our best to resolve the issue.
TalkWeather Forums
* Are you looking for a place to talk with other weather enthusiasts? Check out the TalkWeather forum! It's a bulletin board frequented by meteorologists and enthusiasts with a desire to discuss weather. You can jump in by clicking the link below:
TalkWeather Forum* Forecast looks to be in decent shape. I will probably add some drizzle to the forecast for late tonight as a cold front moves through. There isn't a lot of moisture to work with, and any sprinkles we see will be very light.
* We still expect a warmup this weekend. However, the NAM indicates temperatures Sunday will be cooler than our going forecast. I still believe temperatures will get into the lower 70's across much of our area Sunday afternoon. Speaking of the weekend, I'll be covering for Derek Kinkade on Saturday and Sunday. It's his "Spring Break," and he's headed to the BIG APPLE - New York City! I just hope he doesn't come back and talk like a New Yorker: "Hey Josh, pal, you see dat rain right there buddy?"...I can hear it now.
* Beyond the weekend, the pattern next week looks unsettled. We'll see showers at times, with the best chance coming on Wednesday.
* The rain we exp
New Mesonet
* We learned some great information while down at the EM/Media Workshop in Brandon last week. There are plans to build a "mesonet" of weather observation posts in Mississippi. These stations will be located about 20 miles apart, and will give us readings every two minutes! The observations will be available for free on the internet. One Mississippi station is already built and operational in Newton.
* Mesonets are very popular out in "Tornado Alley," where severe weather is a way of life. These stations will improve our forecasting, as well as give us "ground truth" of wind speeds and direction within thunderstorms.
* Louisiana has already built a similar mesonet, and they include the Newton observation. You can access the mesonet at:
http://www.lsuagcenter.com/weather/
Virga
* Our radar's bark is definitely worse than its' bite today. We are seeing a large swath of returns, but most of it is
virga. Virga is rain or snow that falls, but evaporates before reaching the ground. That is what we are seeing out there today.
* A few clouds hang around early tomorrow before clearing out. Still cool for tomorrow and Friday.
* Warmup begins this weekend, as a ridge of high pressure builds in. This will warm us into the upper 60's and lower 70's. Our next chance of rain comes early next week...
Busy Day...
* Had a great time representing WTOK at the Eagle Scout banquet earlier tonight. This year's class of Eagle Scouts has been named in honor of former U.S. Congressman G.V. "Sonny" Montgomery. Governor Barbour was there, and I had the pleasure of meeting him. The food was also very good, thanks to the kind hosts for their hospitality....Check out that story by clicking the link below:
Eagle Scout Banquet* Clouds will increase tomorrow, and we'll see a few showers. Best chance will come along and north of Highway 16. There is some chance that areas up in western Tennessee could see some snow out of this. Down here, we'll be too warm.
* The deep trough and northwesterly flow aloft will continue to keep us chilly. Cool weather lasts through the rest of the work week, with highs in the 50's.
* A warmup starts Saturday and Sunday, as highs get back into the upper 60's and lower 70's. Next rain chance rolls in here early next week.
Chill in the Air
* Brisk winds and cooler temperatures have arrived today. Locations in north Mississippi might not make it to 50. Around here, most of us will manage to get into the lower 50's, but it sure won't feel like it. Winds are howling, and those winds will push wind chills down into the 30's at times.
* I think we're going to have to amend our forecast a bit for late this week. Sure get the idea that we will be colder than what we are thinking right now. The GFS has been advertising a deep trough in the East. At first, I was skeptical about this, but as we get closer, other models continue to agree with this solution. So, we'll amend our temperatures down for Friday and Saturday.
* Long range forecast - looks like we'll see a transition to a zonal westerly flow by next week. This will leave us mostly dry, with near normal temperatures.
Forecast Notes
* Severe weather affecting parts of Florida now. Thunderstorms continue to move away from east Mississippi and west Alabama.
* Tuesday will feature clearing skies and cooler temperatures. Highs will only make it into the 50's, with stiff northwesterly winds.
* Clouds increase Wednesday, with showers Wednesday afternoon...Increasing evidence to support a chance of snow across northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and southern/western Tennessee. We will probably stay too warm, but it will be a close call. The atmosphere above about 3000' is cold enough for snow. Between the surface and about 3000', temperatures are forecast by the models to be warm enough to melt the snow. Still close enough to make me nervous. Could see a snowflake as far south as the Highway 14 corridor, but it won't be a big deal. Stay tuned, we may have to change our forecast if new model data comes in colder.
* Clearing trend Thursday and lasting into the weekend. I think we start a slow warming trend as well.
* Thanks for reading!
Winding Down?
* First wave of thunderstorms is winding down and moving into central Alabama. We are watching a line of thunderstorms across northern and western Mississippi. That could affect us later tonight, but it will not be as severe as this first wave.
* Still going through all of the damage reports. Here's what we know as of 6:55 PM:
- Trees down county wide in Scott County
- Roof blown off of a barn on Highway 485 just north of Damascus in Kemper County
- Numerous trees and power lines down in southern Neshoba County
- Widespread trees down in northern Newton County
* Power outages have been a problem for some people:
- EMEPA reports that 2500 customers in Collinsville are without power, with an additional 600 without power in various other areas.
* Back to watching the radar screen...
Damage Reports
* IF YOU HAVE DAMAGE REPORTS: Please leave a "Comment" below with your location and what kind of damage you saw. Thanks!!
* Even if you had no damage, please comment and let us know what you saw. This will help us identify the worst storms.
* Severe Weather
* Busy, busy night. Frequent severe thunderstorm warnings...Hearing some damage reports, worst of it seems to be across northern Newton, southern Neshoba, southern Kemper, northern Lauderdale and Sumter County, Alabama. Roofs blown off in Kemper County....Also heard a report of a roof blown off in southern Neshoba County...
* Been doing frequent cut-ins, but will try to update this as much as possible!
Forecast Notes
* SPC has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for parts of Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. You can read it here:
SPC Mesoscale Discussion #264* Airmass continues to gradually become more unstable. The dewpoint have risen 15 degrees in Meridian since 8 AM, an indicator of the moist air surging northward. We are watching breaks in the clouds across the Arklatex. Areas that see sun will have a more unstable airmass and more severe weather.
* Our thinking is that we'll see a line of thunderstorms in here late tonight, probably between 6pm-midnight. Primary threats will be damaging winds and large hail. Can't rule out an isolated tornado along bowing segments of the line. I would imagine we will be placed under a severe thunderstorm watch later today, especially along and south of Mississippi Highway 16.
* Communicating with the National Weather Service in Jackson via Instant Messenger. This is a really great tool, it allows for instant discussion of the threat for severe weather!
Morning Update
* Still watching the potential for severe weather today. We have a setup that is lacking in instability, but has strong dynamics.
* The setup looks similar to Jon Davies' research at the Symposium this weekend. He suggested that one way to get severe weather in "non-classic" situations was extreme low level CAPE and steep lapse rates (the atmosphere cools faster than normal with height). We expect both of those to be present to some degree today.
* Current thinking is that we see a squall line go through here late this afternoon. Probably have some bowing segments with strong winds and perhaps some hail. Within this line, there could be a brief tornado or two. The threat of a widespread tornado outbreak is very low.
* Storms move out late tonight, with breezy weather after the front passes.
* 12z NAM looks rather interesting...Shows moisture falling into air cold enough to support snow. For now, we'll just leave our forecast as it is and evaluate this again later tonight. Here's the link to the 12z NAM:
12z NAM Valid Midnight Wednesday NightEven if that verified, moisture is very limited. Doesn't look like a big deal, but we'll of course monitor it and keep you informed...
Severe Weather Today?
* Had a great time in Starkville this weekend at Symposium. Sure was nice to visit with old friends and learn some great weather info. I never get tired of hearing Jon Davies present -- definitely one of the brightest minds in the science today.
* Still analyzing the possibility of severe weather later today (it is just after midnight as I write this). New Storm Prediction Center--"SPC"--Day 1 Outlook is out and it continues us under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. You can check it out:
Day 1 Outlook for TomorrowA deep upper-air trough will combine with warm, moist air to kick off showers and storms. The amount of unstable air in the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere is rather significant. Here's that display from the 0z NAM:
0-3 KM CAPE Valid Midnight Monday NightThe color scheme there is tough to read, but notice the red bullseye from about Mendenhall to Newton. Values in that axis are running at about 260 J/Kg, which is supportive of severe thunderstorms. The overall instability in the entire atmosphere is in question. If we get sun, we could be in for a long afternoon and evening. Sun heats the surface, which leads to greater instability.
* Bottom line: Keep an eye on tomorrow. Although the SPC risk is "slight", they mention a possible upgrade to "moderate" later today. If we get some sunshine, watch out! We'll be monitoring it closely...
