Severe (weather) headache
* This kind of a forecast gives me a headache. Don't take that the wrong way, because this kind of headache I like...it's just hard to determine what will happen. Rain is very likely tonight into Sunday morning from the lead shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet. That is not the headache...the problem lies in the the next shortwave...
* The shortwave moves slightly to our northwest which would suggest a significant amount of uplift from a Jackson to Columbus line and northwestward, specifically the Delta region of MS. Next, the instability is really lacking. The NAM places only 500-800 J/kg of CAPE in here which is not very much. The big factor will be how much clearing will occur behind the MCS in place, and will it occur during sunlight (allowing for peak heating). If we get a ton of sunshine tomorrow, our forecast could really change. We'll just have to watch and wait.
* The main thing I am concerned with is wind shear. Our wind profile has a lot of speed shear and pretty good directional shear with vertical heights. While you need instability to generate storms that can use the shear to rotate, one thing really stands out. Historically we have had several events that have had less than sufficient instability but when storms did form they used every amount of shear available and rotated like a top. Remember the outbreak from Hurricane Rita? Hardly any instability was present, but the shear and helicity values were rather impressive. Again, this is a headache forecast. The thing to do is to keep checking this blog and our newscasts for updates! I'll be here until Monday morning around 3 am watching and waiting, just incase this were to formulate into a severe event! Also, it is a good idea to check the batteries in your NOAA weather radio!
Being Grateful
* I hope you and your family have had a wonderful Thanksgiving. While I didn't get to visit with my family, I still have had an excellent Thanksgiving. I have much for which to be thankful: a job I love, a great family, and living in the greatest country in the entire world. We should try to be more thankful about things we have in life, especially given the vast human suffering still occurring along the Gulf Coast. While it stings us because this suffering is so close to home, we should also remember that this kind of suffering occurs every second of every minute somewhere in the world. We just have so much to be thankful for around here.
* Simply by living in America, we have it better than millions of people. Don't get me wrong, I'm not preaching - I'm as guilty as they come when it comes to taking things for granted. I ran across this article and thought you might enjoy it...
Thanksgiving is the one day that Americans dwell on what they're grateful for in their lives (except for the poor turkey). The food is blessed, loved ones are gathered together, and people go around the table giving thanks to what they have in their life. The next day comes around, and too many people go back to watching the football game and complaining about how much stuffing and pumpkin pie they ate.
It would be great if every day, the Thanksgiving spirit was kept alive. Instead of looking at what we don't have each day, look at what we do have and be grateful for it. (Yes, that half full, half empty glass cliche'). It is once again a shift of perception that makes all the difference in the world. If a shift can be made to a perception of daily gratefulness, we'll all remind ourselves of how LUCKY WE ARE TO BE ALIVE!
The old tradition of blessing food each day is certainly admirable - it reminds us of how grateful we are to have this meal on the table - whether it be from a job's salary or a harvest.
I'd like to take it up one step further, and suggest picking out something different each day that you're grateful for, and reminding yourself throughout the day of that fact! You'll never run out of things to be grateful for - you can choose anything you want.
One day, you might think about how grateful you are to have the power of sight - how lucky you are to get to see flowers grow and the clear blue sky! The next day, you might be grateful for being given the sense of smell - to pick up the scent of a rose or a chocolate chip cookie baking. There are thousands of things to be grateful for - your child, home, job, legs, arms, lover, friends, your health, hands, sense of taste, furniture, photographs, books, music, the ocean, your pet. It doesn't matter what you choose, simply pick something each day and discover the many ways it touches your life and why you're grateful for that one thing. As time goes by, you'll see how many things you have to be grateful for.
You are so lucky to be alive and are given the chance each day to be here. Cherish what you have and who you are and what you can do. Concentrate on all the possibilities of your life, not the limitations. Be grateful for being you.
From "We are God, A Spiritual Guidebook" Copyright 1995 by Gregg Liebgold
Plenty of Weather (and Turkey) on the Plate
* Our weather will undergo many changes over the next week or so. First, Thanksgiving looks nearly perfect. Plenty of sunshine, warm temperatures - highs will likely reach 70 degrees in most communities tomorrow afternoon.
* A front will slip through late tomorrow night, and much colder air arrives Friday. Highs will stay in the upper 40's or lower 50's (depending on cloud cover) with a stiff north wind making it feel colder. Bundle up for that shopping.
* Saturday looks good, but by Sunday, a deep upper trough will pinwheel out of the southwestern U.S. and into the Southern Plains. This trough, and an attendant area of surface low pressure, will track northwest of here. This, combined with very strong winds aloft, will have to be monitored closely for the potential for severe weather.
* At this time, it appears that the threat of severe weather will be largely dependent on instability. The wind fields will be very favorable, but the extent of moisture return into the Deep South is in question. Also, a wedge of cooler air will likely be slipping into Alabama from the northeast. Exactly how far south and west this wedge of cool air makes it will also be very important. Obviously, these factors are too difficult to discern this far out. We'll watch closely, but just be advised that there is the potential for a major severe weather episode somewhere in the Southeast beginning late Sunday and lasting into the day on Monday.
* ENJOY your Thanksgiving holiday, and remember to be thankful for all that you have...If you have a computer to read this weblog, it is very likely that you have more than most in this world. Here's hoping you and your family have a wonderful Thanksgiving!
