Saturday Night Update
Just got 6 boxes of crawfish in the studio from the Jimmie Rodgers Festival. All of WTOK smells like a fishery now, but it sure is some good stuff! Not really the stuff to be eating in a suit and tie, but neither was the ribs that I had for dinner tonight, courtesy of our chief meteorologist, Mr. Josh Johnson, or as some call him, Wolfgang Johnson for his culinary expertise.
On to weather...
Not really a lot going on in the weather department for once, and I am very thankful! Low pressure that brought our last batch of thunderstorms through here yesterday is well up the Atlantic coast tonight, and we are seeing calm conditions behind it as high pressure builds in.
It was a very windy day today.. Had a gust at 31 mph at Key Field. With the strengthening low moving up the East Coast, and the high pressure behind it, a pressure gradient set up, and that brought the gusty winds around the Deep South today.
Tomorrow promises to be a picture perfect spring day. Look for highs in the 70s and not a cloud in the sky. A great day to get out and go to Arts in the Park! Josh and I will both be there tomorrow afternoon, so if you are there, be sure you come up and say hello!
Our weather remains nice for the next few days, and some locations could see 80 degrees by Tuesday. Our next chance of rain comes sometime Wednesday in the form of a cold front bringing some showers and storms in our area. Still to early to see about the severe weather threat with this system, but given the behavior of the last few, it is certainly possible, so we will be here to keep our eye on it. Still a bit of disagreement from the models about when the rain arrives, and my gut tells me they might hold the bulk of the rain off until after midnight on Wednesday.
After that, next weekend looks dry and seasonable. Enjoy the warm weather, and enjoy the nice weekend!
Derek Kinkade
Finally Calming Down
* After a very stormy 48 hours, our weather is finally beginning to calm down. Like many of you, I am very thankful for this - I sure could use some sleep. I look forward to enjoying some pleasant weather at the Jimmie Rodgers festival! I'm also excited about getting my new grill fired up this weekend. I really have a lot to look forward to and be thankful for. Grilling out is one of my favorite things to do. It's just too bad we don't have any football right now to go along with the barbeque!
* The weekend looks great, temperatures in the 60's and perhaps lower 70's on Sunday. Saturday night will be cold, with patchy frost as temperatures drop into the middle 30's.
* The next chance of rain comes in here by late Tuesday into early Wednesday. It's early in the game, but the GFS suggests that more thunderstorms could be in the offing. Nothing set in stone, but we'll certainly keep an eye on things.
* I have a few comments about our weather over the past week and a half.
- First, be thankful. I've seen video from places across Mississippi and Alabama with significant damage. A man was killed in southern Georgia last week. Things could have been worse, so let's count our blessings.
- Secondly, I'd like to thank everyone for their help. Derek Kinkade, our weekend meteorologist, was here working overtime and supporting our weather operation. Our EMA partners have really done a superb job in our new Instant Messaging network. The NWS in Jackson and Birmingham has been working long hours as well, so I'd like to thank them for their hard work. Spend some time with your family!
Surprise Severe Thunderstorm Watch
* Just when we thought it was safe to sleep...
* The SPC has placed much of our area under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. A broken line of storms continues to push eastward through the state. Some of these storms may have some hail and perhaps some damaging wind.
* Right now (1:30pm), they just don't look that impressive. But, strengthening is certainly possible, especially as you go north and east from Meridian. We'll keep an eye on things...
Focus on Flooding
* Still watching a squall line move across central Mississippi. This line of storms is not particularly impressive, but I suppose we could see some small hail or damaging winds. We are still under a Tornado Watch until 7 AM, so we'll have to keep an eye on things.
* As the severe weather threat winds down, we will turn our focus to flooding. Radar estimates that 2-4 inch rainfall amounts were rather common across the area. According to radar, portions of northern Clarke County (MS) got over 5". The highest storm total estimae I found was southwest of us, in Jefferson Davis County.
* Charles has relieved me at the station, and I'm now at home watching from here. I really have to get some sleep now. Be sure to enjoy the pleasant weather this weekend. With all of the stormy weather this week, you have certainly earned it!
Morning Coming....
* The storms in central/western Mississippi are forming into a squall line. This would seem to diminish the tornado threat. I believe all of our storms tonight were slightly "elevated" above a layer of stable air near the surface. That fact really cut down on the tornado threat.
* Flash flood warnings have been issued for Neshoba, Newton, Lauderdale, Jasper, and Clarke counties. I would imagine local streams and rivers are over their banks in many places this morning.
* The squall line will race eastward across the state, making the flooding situation even worse. There could be some strong thunderstorm winds or small hail within the line; we may even require a few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. We'll keep an eye on it.
***BE SURE to check out our main website today! We have an update on a unique weather situation for Friday, including a picture of two of your favorite news/sports personalities enjoying the great outdoors together. Here's the link:
Newscenter 11 WeatherNewscenter 11 Weather
Severe Weather Update
* Watching a few severe storms roll across the area. Right now we have Jones, Wayne, Choctaw (AL), Newton, and Lauderdale under Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. The Newton/Lauderdale storm looks like it could be packing a punch in the wind department.
The southern storm (Jones/Wayne/Choctaw) was showing good signs of rotation earlier. Now, I believe the prime threat is from hail in that storm.
* The rest of the area is under a tornado watch until 7:00 AM. Storms continue to build over western Mississippi, northern Louisiana, and back into southeast Texas. Will be a long night for us. Can't WAIT for the weekend!
* Back to watching the radar screen. Wanted to thank our EMA and storm spotter friends on Instant Messenger for their communication. Really neat stuff...
Tornado Watch Issued
* The SPC has gone ahead and pulled the trigger on a Tornado Watch for all of our Mississippi counties:
Tornado Watch* Watching closely the location of the moisture boundary. Areas along and south of the boundary will be in a prime location for severe weather. Interesting to see that the dewpoint in Columbus went up to 59 degrees. They had been in the 40's for much of the evening.
* The prime area of concern for tornadoes will be between I-59 and U.S. Highway 43 in west Alabama. This includes places like Quitman, Waynesboro, Butler, Lisman, Thomasville, and Jackson (AL). But, ALL of us will have to keep a close eye on things tonight.
* I will try to update the blog as much as possible. I'm manning the station alone tonight, so I may run late. Please bear with me. Also, if you are in your car and need weather info, tune to AM 1010 WMOX! They simulcast our signal during severe weather, so it's another good way to get timely weather info.
* Back to watching the radar...
* Watching Things
* SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas roughly along and south of U.S. Highway 84. Here's the watch:
Severe Thunderstorm Watch* The watch has been issued for severe thunderstorms currently developing across portions of Louisiana. Most of those storms are severe, and there are currently a few tornado warnings for Louisiana parishes just south of the Mississippi state line. These storms will continue to move northeast and will likely affect much of our area through the evening.
* We are watching the exact position of a boundary stretching across the area. North of this boundary, the threat of severe weather will lessen dramatically. Right now, the boundary runs from roughly Natchez to Meridian. Areas along and south of the boundary will be under the gun later on.
* Tornado threat? We'll stick with the idea that the tornado threat remains low. However, there are indications that we could see an area of enhanced low level shear very close to the aforementioned boundary. This could increase the threat of tornadoes. The bottom line is that we expect an active weather night, so please stay close to a good source of weather information.
* Flooding is also possible. Heavy rain from last night's storms has already pushed many local rivers to their banks, and tonight could be the "straw that breaks the camel's back." If you live in a flood-prone area, NOW is the time to prepare.
* Watching Things
* SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas roughly along and south of U.S. Highway 84. Here's the watch:
Severe Thunderstorm Watch* The watch has been issued for severe thunderstorms currently developing across portions of Louisiana. Most of those storms are severe, and there are currently a few tornado warnings for Louisiana parishes just south of the Mississippi state line. These storms will continue to move northeast and will likely affect much of our area through the evening.
* We are watching the exact position of a boundary stretching across the area. North of this boundary, the threat of severe weather will lessen dramatically. Right now, the boundary runs from roughly Natchez to Meridian. Areas along and south of the boundary will be under the gun later on.
* Tornado threat? We'll stick with the idea that the tornado threat remains low. However, there are indications that we could see an area of enhanced low level shear very close to the aforementioned boundary. This could increase the threat of tornadoes. The bottom line is that we expect an active weather night, so please stay close to a good source of weather information.
* Flooding is also possible. Heavy rain from last night's storms has already pushed many local rivers to their banks, and tonight could be the "straw that breaks the camel's back." If you live in a flood-prone area, NOW is the time to prepare.
Early Afternoon Update
* Watching and waiting for storms to fire across eastern Louisiana. They are under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and I anticipate storms will fire there and move into our neck of the woods.
* We could see more severe weather tonight. The SPC has placed us under the dreaded "Moderate" risk:
SPC Day 1 OutlookLarge hail and strong winds will be the primary threats with these storms. There is an outside chance of a tornado, but the big story will be hail and wind.
* Heading in to work. We have a couple of IM conferences with various partners this afternoon. I will post again before the 5:00 news.
Rocking and Rolling....
Just when I thought it was safe to go home...
A second round of storms, previously thought to be dead, rapidly became intense. No real tornado threat, but many reports of hail across many areas of east Mississippi and reaching into west Alabama.
Charles Daniel is at the station now, monitoring the situation and keeping everyone informed via our TV reports. I'm at my home, watching the weather and prepared to come in and help Charles out at any moment, should the situation worsen. Right now, we don't expect that. Just some heavy rain, hail, and a LOT of lightning. As I wrote that, I had a cloud-to-ground lightning strike outside the window here in north Meridian.
Flash flooding will also be a concern, and the NWS in Jackson has issued a Flash Flood Warning for Lauderdale and Newton counties until around 6:15 AM.
Time to get a nap...Tomorrow night could feature more severe weather. Will update that situation later this morning.
Severe Weather Update
Derek Kinkade with you now...
Josh and I are still watching for the potential development of severe weather across the area tonight. It looks like the first round made its way through our area already, with only lingering showers and thunderstorms in areas north and east of Meridian. There were no tornado warnings with this first batch of severe weather, but numerous severe thunderstorm warnings were issued (and are being issued) by the National Weather Service in Jackson and Birmingham. Looks like we had some reports of large hail with some of the storms, but still waiting to hear of any other damage reports. There is the possibility more severe weather may enter the area tonight, and the Tornado Watch that is in effect lasts until 1 AM.
We have an axis of higher dewpoints that will be moving into the area later this evening, but I am not sure if that will be enough to trigger more severe storms. We have used up a lot of the atmosphere's 'juice' with the thunderstorms that moved through earlier, and it will remain to be seen if we have enough left for more severe weather.
We will be here as long as it takes to keep you up to date. Stay tuned!
Severe Weather in Progress..
* SPC has placed many of our counties under a Tornado Watch until 1:00 AM. Here's that watch:
Tornado Watch* Storms continue to overspread the area, some of which are severe. Several of our counties are currently under Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. In fact, we've received several reports of large hail from Newton and Jasper counties thus far. Here is a website that shows every warning from across the country:
Severe Weather Warnings* We'll be monitoring it closely...
Here's the Latest...
* Wanted to post a quick update with our thinking...We've been evaluating the latest data all morning, and here's our best shot:
* The biggest threat of severe weather in the next 72 hours will come later tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded this to a "Moderate" risk of severe weather. Could see some really large hail and strong winds out of this. As far as tornadoes go, here's our best shot at the highest risk area:
Along and WEST of U.S. Highway 43
Along and NORTH of I-20
Along and EAST of Mississippi Highway 15
This includes places like Newton, Decatur, Meridian, Philadelphia, De Kalb, Scooba, York, and Collinsville.
Keep in mind that's just an estimate. Areas outside of that area could also see tornadoes, so ANYONE living in east Mississippi and west Alabama should definitely monitor the weather closely tonight.
Here's the official SPC outlook:
SPC Day 1 Outlook* Still watching it, but the threat of severe weather Thursday afternoon/night seems pretty low. If we do see severe weather, it will probably be along and south of I-20...
* Back to work...
Update for Thursday
* The 12z (morning) run of the computer models has been evaluated, and the threat of severe weather late Thursday seems to be slightly increasing. The 12z NAM brings our CAPE values up above 2000 J/kg by Thursday afternoon.
The SPC Day 2 Outlook has most of area in a Slight Risk for severe weather for Thursday/Thursday night. In this, they mention a possible upgrade to a moderate risk for us. Here's the outlook:
SPC Day 2 Outlook* This is a tricky, tricky forecast with high "bust" potential. The threat of severe weather is highly dependent on the exact track of the surface low. Also critical will be the location of any morning rain or thunderstorms, which will create small-scale boundaries that enhance the local severe weather threat. It's simply too far out to try and pinpoint these factors right now, so check back for updates.
* For now, we'll stick with the idea that severe weather is possible across the area, with the worst of it along the I-20 corridor.
Tricky Forecast
* Here's our latest thinking on how the next 72 hours will unfold:
Today: Showers and storms develop late in the day, and some of these will be severe. The worst of it will be along and north of Highway 25, but the threat of a strong or severe storm exists across the entire area. The SPC has outlooked much of the area in a "Slight" risk for severe weather:
SPC Day 1 OutlookTonight: Showers and storms are still possible, mainly in west Alabama. Again, a few could be strong.
Thursday/Thursday Night: An area of low pressure develops and tracks through central Mississippi. Good instability will be present southeast of the low, and a few severe storms are possible there. In our viewing area, the best chance of this would be along and south of roughly I-20. There is still considerable uncertainty about the threat of severe weather Thursday, so I urge you to check back for frequent updates.
Friday: Rain lingers early, then we turn much cooler. Temperatures will probably fall or stay steady in the 60's Friday afternoon.
* The weekend looks good at this point. But, we have quite a mine field to maneuver before we get there.
Tricky Forecast
* Here's our latest thinking on how the next 72 hours will unfold:
Today: Showers and storms develop late in the day, and some of these will be severe. The worst of it will be along and north of Highway 25, but the threat of a strong or severe storm exists across the entire area. The SPC has outlooked much of the area in a "Slight" risk for severe weather:
SPC Day 1 OutlookTonight: Showers and storms are still possible, mainly in west Alabama. Again, a few could be strong.
Thursday/Thursday Night: An area of low pressure develops and tracks through central Mississippi. Good instability will be present southeast of the low, and a few severe storms are possible there. In our viewing area, the best chance of this would be along and south of roughly I-20. There is still considerable uncertainty about the threat of severe weather Thursday, so I urge you to check back for frequent updates.
Friday: Rain lingers early, then we turn much cooler. Temperatures will probably fall or stay steady in the 60's Friday afternoon.
* The weekend looks good at this point. But, we have quite a mine field to maneuver before we get there.
A Big Headache
* Very tough forecast on tap for the next 72 hours. Before we get started, let me say that this is a very difficult forecast with a high "bust" potential. But, I have to say what I think will happen, so here goes...
* Looks like our first chance of rain comes Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A deepening area of low pressure over the central Plains will draw warm, moist air northward. This will set the stage for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. A few of those could be strong, but it doesn't look like a huge deal. We'll monitor it closely.
* The really tricky part is what happens Thursday night into Friday. We were concerned about the threat of a significant severe weather outbreak, that now appears to be a small threat. In fact, the latest run of the NAM model doesn't develop a closed surface low until after the system has moved east of us:
NAM Valid 6AM FridayThis would lead to a cold rain with perhaps a thunderstorm or two in the mix. I think this is off by a little bit, and the surface low will track slightly north of us. So, we'll leave a chance of thunderstorms in there for late Thursday into early Friday. Earlier today, the SPC hinted at an upgrade to a "Moderate" risk in later outlooks. At this point, I think that's unlikely. These things can change quickly, so we'll keep you posted. If we do see any severe weather, I believe it will be along and south of a line from Waynesboro to Demopolis.
* We do still anticipate a change to much cooler temperatures in here by Friday night, once the cold front pushes through. We could even see some snow as far south as the mountains of Tennessee and North Carolina!
Clouds Rolling In...
* Clouds continue to slowly roll in from the west. These clouds are mostly high clouds, and don't have much in the way of any rain. Temperatures tomorrow will be pleasant, with highs in the lower 80's.
* The trouble begins by late tomorrow night. A few showers and perhaps a storm or two will develop by tomorrow night. A few of these storms could be strong, but the threat of widespread severe weather seems low.
* We'll see a lull in the action for several hours during the day Thursday. Then, a wave of low pressure will move across central Mississippi, bringing some rain with it. There is another threat of strong to severe storms with this wave of activity. Right now, it appears that the best chance of severe weather will be along and south of a Waynesboro-Demopolis line. We are still a long way out, and we'll probably have to adjust our forecast as we get closer.
* Friday will be a wet day, especially during the morning hours. Heavy rain and storms are possible, and we will monitor for the threat of any severe weather. MUCH cooler air will slam southward into Mississippi and Alabama Friday night. Temperatures will likely fall into the middle 30's by Saturday morning. These are wild and wooly times!
Watching Thursday...
* Starting to think we may have to continue to watch potential of severe weather Thursday. The 12z NAM develops more instability than previous runs - it gets our CAPE up above 2000 by Thursday afternoon. Helicity values on the NAM are rather low, but the presence of a deep trough and a strong low-level jet are worrisome.
* The last couple of severe weather events have not been as bad as we had expected. While that is definitely a blessing, there is a natural tendency among weather forecasters to be "gun-shy." But, forecasting weather is not about what is in the past, but rather what is going to happen. That being said, we always try to learn from forecasts that don't pan out. But, we can't let those mistakes haunt us in later forecasts.
* It's a little early to really get into specifics, but I get the idea we'll see a cluster of storms, perhaps Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Then, by Thursday afternoon a line of storms will move across the area. This is a very rough first estimate, please understand that will will adjust this forecast over the next few days.
Warm and Dry...For Now
* Wrapping up the 10:00 News as we speak...Jim Butch, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist from the NWS in Jackson, is heading out to Smith and Jasper counties tomorrow morning to inspect possible tornado damage. I will post the results of those surveys when they are available.
* Wade Phillips promised me a shiny nickel if we hit 80 on Tuesday (on the 5:00 news). I hope we get to 80; every nickel helps (especially with the price of gas these days!).
* Still watching the threat of severe weather Thursday. Several parameters indicate the possibility of a substantial severe weather threat. However, the latest run of the NAM model keeps our instability rather low. If that should change, we will definitely be dealing with another round of severe thunderstorms by late Thursday. I have a hunch that this one is one to watch closely...And that's exactly what we'll do.
* It was nice to visit with my friend Matt Settineri today. Matt is a very bright student at Lamar. He has a deep interest in meteorology and visited with me this afternoon as I put together our various forecast products. I look forward to having Matt around here more often and wish him the best in a very bright future.
Afternoon Update
* Discussing several things with the NWS in Jackson today via Instant Messenger. First, they do have reports of damage in Jasper County with a possible tornado. They are sending out a storm survey team tomorrow to further investigate the damage. I will post the results of that survey as soon as the become available.
* Warm and dry for today and tomorrow. Get out and enjoy the nice weather! Temperatures will get back into the upper 70's and lower 80's with plenty of sunshine.
* Clouds slowly increase Wednesday. There is an outside chance of some rain Wednesday, but for now we'll go with only widely isolated showers.
* The next significant chance of rain comes in here Thursday. There are increasing indications that some strong storms could be involved. However, we aren't completely sold on the threat of severe weather just yet. We'll have a much better handle on the situation by tomorrow afternoon, so keep checking back for frequent updates!
* Thanks to all of our EMA partners! The conference Saturday night went very well, with plenty of communication between counties and our meteorologists. Thanks again for participating!
Weekend Ramblings
Looks like the severe weather threat is winding down now across all of Alabama as just a few showers and storms are pushing through the eastern part of the state. Thankfully, we are in for a rather calm period of weather for about the next 3 days or so before more showers and storms threaten our area by Thursday.
We will see warm weather by the middle of the week with temperatures near 80 degrees by Wednesday. More thunderstorms possible by Thursday, and yet again we run the risk of a severe weather threat by that time. It is still way to early to determine the exact threat, but once again we will keep our eye on things around here.
Enjoy a beautiful start to the week!
Derek Kinkade
Afternoon Update
* Severe weather now unfolding across portions of central Alabama. Tornado watches extend across much of Alabama, as far west as Hale County. This band of activity will stay east of us.
* Watching a cluster of thunderstorms back over Texas. These are "elevated" on top of a layer of cool, dry air. Elevated storms generally produce hail and wind rather than tornadoes.
* Many reports of hail last night, along with a few tornadoes. I would be very surprised if there was not a brief tornado touchdown somewhere in Jasper or Smith County with the first supercellular storm that moved through there last night. The rotation on radar was very strong, but it was over a rural area. So, the NWS may not actually find any damage.
* Thanks for the comments and e-mails about our coverage. In the end, it's about saving lives - regardless of what TV show gets interrupted. Thanks also to Derek Kinkade, the WTOK production staff, and the LDCT Stormchasers from Mississippi State University (and 2 storm chasers from the University of South Alabama).
