Back in the saddle again...
Just flew in from New York City this past Wednesday, and I am glad to be back in the swing of things here in the Deep South, home to sweet tea and the best cookin' on the planet! Got to see some good snowfall last Friday (sorry for all the snow fans that I am making jealous). It was pretty cold up there as well.. had to stay bundled up in the scarf and gloves!
*Severe Weather Possible Monday Evening and Tuesday*
Battling a strange schedule tonight and some computer issues, so the nature of this blog will be brief. We will discuss the severe weather threat much more in depth and have a better handle on things in the 'blog tomorrow, so be sure to check back then.
Most areas north of Highway 80 will stay dry tonight and tomorrow, with the main focus for showers and storms remaining to the south. Still hard to pinpoint the timing of any showers or storms over the next few days, and we can't rule out the chance of any place seeing a shower at any time between now and Monday, when we think the 'big show' arrives. Looks like much of the deep south could be in store for some severe weather around the Monday evening-Tuesday time frame. At this time, the main threat looks to be from damaging winds and possible tornadoes. We are still 2 days away from the event, and things could change, but now is the time, as Josh has been writing, to have a severe weather safety plan and a way to get severe weather watches and warnings!
Beyond that in the longer range, I expect we clear out by the middle of the week, seeing more sun and less clouds. Looks like our next chance of some rain (and possibly thunderstorms...) comes in here in time for next weekend.
Remember we can't turn on your TV for you, especially at night. Also, outdoor warning sirens are only meant to warn people caught outdoors, not inside. Have a NOAA Weather Radio, and have a severe weather safety plan at home, school, work, church, and while driving.
Saturday Early AM Update
* Good morning from Biloxi! I'm down here for the big Robert Plant concert later tonight. I'm a big Led Zeppelin fan, and the busy nature of things lately really left me wanting a weekend to just get away. So here I am.
* Still concerned about the threat of severe weather late Monday into early Tuesday. The SPC has outlined us in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather. I expect this to be upgraded to a Moderate or High Risk in coming days.
* The National Weather Service is extremely concerned. Here's an excerpt from their morning discussion:
"ALL INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SVR WX OUTBREAK LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT. SUPERCELLS AND EVEN A SQUALL LINE LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. VEERING AND INCREASING WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF TORNADOES.
I'LL BE HONEST...WE HAVEN'T SEEN THIS COMBINATION OF REALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN QUITE SOME TIME. I CAN'T GIVE YOU ANY EXACT INSTABILITY VALUES...BUT JUST LOOKING AT HOW STEEP THE LAPSE RATES WILL
BE...2000-2500 JOULES OF MLCAPE WILL BE VERY REASONABLE. THIS SET UP WILL BE EXPLOSIVE! THESE EXPLOSIVE UPDRAFTS COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST STRONG TORNADOES. REMEMBER...THIS IS STILL 3 DAYS AWAY AND THE DETAILS WILL DETERMINE WHAT MODE OF CONVECTION WE WILL HAVE AND IF SIG SVR STORMS WILL OCCUR. STAY TUNED!"
* Pretty strong wording. We'll keep you up to date throughout the weekend and update the forecast as we get closer to the potential event.
Ready for the Weekend
* Tough forecast. A cold front will push through tomorrow, bringing an increase in clouds. There could be a few showers and perhaps even a thunderstorms. Any storms that form could have some small hail, but this threat should be confined to the extreme southwestern part of the state.
* A general decrease in the number of showers on Sunday. The front will stall south of us, and that's where the rain will be focused.
* The turbulent times arrive Monday afternoon. A strong area of low pressure will develop over the south-central Plains. This low pressure will be accompanied by a strong negative tilt trough and strong dynamics. This combination of factors will likely set the stage for a round of severe thunderstorms by Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. The 0z run of the NAM model is out, and it continues to indicate this possibility.
* If you have a severe weather safety plan, NOW is the time to review your plan. Make sure that your weather radio is functioning properly.
* IF you do not have a severe weather safety plan, NOW is the time to talk with your family about what you'll do in the event of a tornado warning. The first step is having a reliable way to receive warnings. NOAA Weather Radio is the best way. They are available at all electronics stores, and this weekend provides you a good time to go pick one up.
* Here are a few pointers on developing your severe weather safety plan:
- Get low! Get as low as you can, a basement if you have one. If not, lowest floor of your home.
- Get in! Get as far "in" your house as you can. Put as many walls between you and the outside as possible.
- Evacuate mobile homes. They make great homes in calm weather, but simply aren't designed to withstand tornado winds. The best option is to prepare well ahead of time. Find a friend or relative who lives in a house and spend the day (or night) with them. If that's not an option, get out of your mobile home when a warning is issued. Once you hear about a tornado warning for your county, find the nearest ditch and get in it while covering your head.
- Stay out of the car! Cars are the worst places to be in tornadoes. Again, find a nearby ditch and cover your head. DO NOT go under an overpass; winds there are actually stronger.
* If you have any questions about what YOU should do if a tornado warning is issued, PLEASE e-mail me. I'm more than willing to answer any question you have. The only "stupid" question is one that should have been asked.
* Have a GREAT weekend!
Quick Evening Update
* March Madness continues, both on the court on in the world of weather. The weekend will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with scattered showers. There could be a thunderstorm tomorrow out in southwest Mississippi, but the threat of any severe weather tomorrow is very low.
* The significant threat of severe weather comes late Monday into early Tuesday. It's still too early to discuss specifics or exact timing, but the overall pattern supports a signficant outbreak of severe thunderstorms in the Southeast. We'll refine the forecast over the weekend. I'm heading down to Biloxi this weekend, but will be updating this space pretty regularly. Also, be sure to check out Derek Kinkade's forecast tomorrow night at around 10:45. We are going on late due to airing
The Ten Commandments. Derek will also be updating the 'blog throughout the weekend.
Early Next Week...
* Still closely watching early next week for the potential for severe weather. It looks like a classic severe weather setup for Mississippi and Alabama: a negatively tilted trough, developing low pressure northwest of us, strong wind fields aloft. We'll continue to monitor the latest model data throughout the weekend, but it sure looks like we could see some rough weather by late Monday into early Tuesday.
?? What is a negatively tilted trough ??
It's a trough that is tilted to the west. If you start at the southernmost (bottom) part of the trough, and go up the trough axis, it tilts towards the west (left). This allows the coldest air aloft to move directly over the warmest air below -- greatly enhancing instability. It also creates better vertical wind shear.
* NOW is the time to review your severe weather safety plans! If you don't have a plan, develop one today. This is also the time to make sure your weather radio is working, check the batteries, etc. Here's a review:
The first step is getting a NOAA Weather Radio. They are available at almost any electronics store. If you never hear the warning, the rest of the plan is worthless.
Secondly, meet with your family and develop a plan of action for when tornado warnings are issued. Each family situation is different, I can't give you one plan that works for everyone. But, here are some basics that work anywhere:
- Get low! Get as low as you can, a basement if you have one. If not, lowest floor of your home.
- Get in! Get as far "in" your house as you can. Put as many walls between you and the outside as possible.
- Evacuate mobile homes. They make great homes in calm weather, but simply aren't designed to withstand tornado winds. The best option is to find a friend or relative who lives in a house and spend the day (or night) with them. If that's not an option, find the nearest ditch and get in it while covering your head.
- Stay out of the car! Cars are the worst places to be in tornadoes. Again, find a nearby ditch and cover your head. DO NOT go under an overpass; winds there are actually stronger.
If you have any questions about YOUR severe weather plan, now is the time to ask! Leave a comment here or write me an email and I'll answer as best I can.
A Raw St. Patrick's Day
Well, there went my bracket. Bama ran into a buzzsaw today in Cleveland, and was beaten by UW-Milwaukee in the first round. I had them going to the Sweet 16. I guess that is my cue to stick to forecasting weather and leave sports to Lindsey and Jamie. But, still a great time of year. Go State! Now, on to the weather:
If you wore green today, I hope you wore something thick and green! Temperatures held in the middle 40's for much of the day, with clouds hanging tough.
The clouds are on the way out right now. Temperatures tonight will be pretty cold, with lows in the 30's. We might see some frost, especially along Highway 15 north of I-20 -- places like Decatur, Union, and Philadelphia. They will see the clouds clear first, so temperatures there will fall quickly due to radiational cooling.
The weekend forecast is a difficult one. We'll see partly cloudy skies on Saturday. A storm system will track across the northern Plains and drag a front through here. Moisture will be limited, and dynamics will be weak. So, I get the idea that many of us will stay dry Saturday. But, I cannot rule out a scattered shower or storm across northern parts of our area Saturday. Most of us will stay dry.
By late Sunday, we'll see a developing area of low pressure in the Plains. This low pressure will swing northeast and likely bring a round of showers and storms through here. Timing this is rather difficult, but our latest thinking is that the best chance of rain will come Monday into Tuesday. There could be some storms involved, we'll have to keep an eye on that...
Cold Weather Continues
* Enjoying the first round of the NCAA tournament. Well, maybe not "enjoying" -- Alabama is losing to UW-Milwaukee in the first half. Those guys just can't miss right now. MSU plays tomorrow vs. Stanford.
* Temperatures not moving a lot -- mostly stationary in the 40's. Key Field in Meridian reported 43 degrees last hour, and Columbus reported 39! Definitely feels more like December than St. Patrick's Day.
* The back edge of the clouds is across western Mississippi, and its not making much progress. So, I'd imagine we'll stay in clouds for most of the day. But, it's possible that we could see a few breaks in the clouds late in the day along and west of Highway 15.
* Tomorrow looks much nicer. Ample sunshine and temperatures getting back into the 60's. Rain chances look pretty small through at least Sunday. Our next chance of rain comes early next week. We were concerned about severe weather with this system, but the latest model data suggests the threat has lessened. Stay tuned, these things can change quickly!
Running Late...
* I apologize for the late nature of today's post. I've been in meetings for much of the afternoon. I can't give exact details, but we are getting close to changing some things! More to come on that later!
* Cold and damp tomorrow. Highs MIGHT make it to 50 if we are lucky. The good news is that we start a warming trend into the weekend. Sunshine returns Friday and Saturday, and highs will get back into the 60's and 70's. There is an outside chance of a shower late Friday night, but most of us will stay dry.
* There is a chance of rain and storms early next week. The models all have widely varying solutions, but I still get the idea we'll have some rain and storms at some point early next week. Stay tuned!
Heavy Rain Tonight...
* Rain continues to overspread the northern Gulf Coast. We'll see plenty of rain through the evening tonight. Many places will see an inch or more of rain with this, especially along and south of I-20. The SPC has a "Slight Risk" for severe weather for areas along and south of Highway 84. I don't think this will be a big deal for us, but we cannot rule out isolated pockets of small hail south of a line from Laurel to Waynesboro to Millry, Alabama. Again, doesn't look too bad.
* Clouds and patchy light rain will hang with us as a surface low deepens and moves east across southern Alabama into southern Georgia. We will forecast mostly cloudy conditions and scattered showers for Wednesday and Thursday. The upper trough associated with the surface low will swing through Thursday afternoon, and this will cause us to keep small rain chances going.
* I believe we may escape Friday and Saturday rain-free. There will be a surface low moving across the northern Plains, with an associated upper trough. These features should stay far enough north to keep us mostly dry. While there certainly could be an isolated shower across northern Mississippi Friday afternoon, I get the idea that many of us will stay dry.
* Closely watching the threat for severe weather late Sunday into Monday of next week. The GFS and European computer models are both advertising a strong surface low tracking northwest of us, with a strong negatively tilted trough. If these solutions verify, we could really be under the gun for severe weather on Monday. We'll keep a close eye on that over the coming days.
Slight Risk South
* The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of southern Mississippi under a "Slight Risk" for severe thunderstorms. Again, these storms will be elevated over a cool layer of air at the surface. The main threat will be small hail, and will generally be along and south of U.S. Highway 84. Here's the text and graphic of the Slight Risk:
1630Z Day 1 Outlook* Interesting weather across northern Alabama this morning. Evaporative cooling led to some sleet across the Tennessee Valley, in places like Athens, Madison, and Huntsville. It wasn't a big deal and quickly melted, but just a reminder that it's still Winter in some nearby parts of the world!
Alabama Tornado
* Still investigating the possible tornado in Noxubee County. The NWS told me today that they found no damage. WCBI (Columbus) is sending their morning meteorologist, Rich Wirdzek, down there to take some pictures and evaluate any damage. I'll be sure to pass along any new info on that.
* Confirmed tornado in Pickens County, Alabama. Here's the summary, courtesy of NWS Birmingham:
....NWS STORM SURVEY DETERMINES F0 TORNADO DAMAGE OCCURRED IN WEST
CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...MARCH 13....
NWS METEOROLOGIST CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY TODAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY AND DETERMINED THAT AN F0 TORNADO DID OCCUR ACROSS THIS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SPECIFICALLY...A THUNDERSTORM MOVED OUT OF LOWNDES COUNTY....MISSISSIPPI AND MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY AROUND 949 PM CST....AND PRODUCED A TORNADO THAT TOUCHED DOWN AROUND 954 PM CST NEAR PINE GROVE.
THIS TORNADO THEN MOVED EAST NORTHEAST BEFORE LIFTING 2 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MCSHAN AROUND 1004 PM CST. TOTAL PATH LENGTH WAS 5 MILES WITH A WIDTH OF 150 YARDS. NUMEROUS TREES WERE DOWNED, ALONG WITH DAMAGE TO AT LEAST 3 HOMES, AND 2 OUTBUILDINGS. MOST OF THIS DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG WILL JONES ROAD. NO FATALITIES OR INJURIES OCCURRED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS IN EFFECT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 1000 PM CST.
* Heavy rain looks like a real possibility late tomorrow into tomorrow night. I think we'll see just a few showers early in the day, with most of the rain holding off until early afternoon. Here's tonight's run of the NAM, valid midnight Tuesday night:
NAM Valid Midnight Tuesday NightThat shows the accumulated rain that fell between 6pm Tuesday and midnight Tuesday night. As far as thunderstorms go, we could see a few isolated storms embedded within the shield of rain. However, these storms will be "elevated" -- this means that they will develop ABOVE a layer of cool air closest to the ground. The primary threat with elevated storms is generally small hail. So, we certainly do not anticipate any widespread severe weather Tuesday night. Worst case scenario is that a few people see some small hail. But, as always, we'll monitor it closely and update you if the situation changes.
* Lingering showers will stay with us for parts of Wednesday. We don't anticipate a washout, only mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers and light rain. Another shortwave trough moves through by Thursday night into early Friday, this will cause some more light rain and showers. Again, not a washout.
* Let me say up front that this progressive, fast paced pattern is very difficult to forecast. Timing individual upper-air shortwaves moving in that fast-paced flow is almost impossible. So, the potential for error is great. Keep a close eye on this space for any amendments to our forecast!
Ides of March
* I've been in contact with the NWS in Jackson, they still haven't found damage from the reported tornado in Noxubee County. They said they will pass along any new info as soon as they get it. And, once they do, I'll pass it along via this space.
* Forecast looks unsettled for the next 4-5 days. We expect a wave of showers and storms tomorrow, especially after noon. There could be some thunderstorms involved, and some could have some small hail. But, we do not anticipate anything as severe as what we saw last night.
* Cloudy and showery weather will rule the roost Wednesday and Thursday. Hopefully, we'll get some nicer weather in here by the end of the work week and into the weekend!
Calming Down
* The storms are winding down. We'll keep an eye on things for the next couple of hours, but I really think we are out of the woods. Here's a rundown of the damage reports that we know about:
Mississippi Damage Reports* I still notice the report of a confirmed tornado touchdown near Macon. Will try to do some investigating on this tomorrow morning.
* Hopefully our coverage didn't upset too many people. We received numerous calls and e-mails from people upset because we interrupted "Extreme Home Makeover." I wonder if their tune would change if it was their neighborhood in the path of the storm.
Still Watching...
* Severe thunderstorm warnings continue in effect for southern Jasper and Clarke counties until 10:45. The primary threat is large hail. The worst of it seems to be across eastern Clarke counties, near Sykes, Pine Ridge, Crandall and Carmichael. Also seeing some bad weather are our neighbors in southern Jasper County, from Stringer over towards Heidelberg.
* The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been allowed to expire at 10:00 pm. We'll see rain with perhaps an embedded thunderstorm for much of the overnight hours, but the threat of severe weather is diminishing.
* Having problems with our FirstWarn system, I apologize. The problems are with our software, not anything our people are doing. But, it's my responsibility, and rest assured I'm working tirelessly to get it fixed.
* Have to get some rest...
Active Night...
* Still watching the radar closely. Band of severe storms moving through Newton and Jasper counties as we speak. Severe T-Storm Warnings there...Tornado warnings were required earlier for Noxubee, Sumter, and Pickens...Reports of a tornado on the ground near Macon, still investigating that.
* Back to radar...Will stay in touch.
Some Hail Reports
* Severe T'Storm Watch continues for much the area tonight until 10:00 pm. We've seen a few severe thunderstorm warnings across Winston, Attala, and Noxubee counties. Winston County Civil Defense reports pea sized hail near the Lobutcha community, and we've seen some really large hail further north, near Starkville and Columbus.
* A large complex of severe thunderstorms is moving across the Mississippi River as I type this. Tornado warning for Madison Parish over in northern Louisiana, just west of the Mississippi River. These storms really mean business, and they are moving our way. There is some chance they will weaken as the sun goes down and we lose the surface heating. But, I wouldn't count on it.
* Back to radar duty...
Hail/Wind Reports
* If you have seen or heard of hail/wind or any other significant weather, let us know! Leave a comment below and we'll pass your report along to the NWS and report it via television.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
* The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for much of central Mississippi and Alabama until 10:00 pm tonight. Here are the counties in our area that are included:
MISSISSIPPI
Attala
Clarke
Jasper
Kemper
Lauderdale
Leake
Neshoba
Newton
Noxubee
Scott
Smith
Winston
ALABAMA
Greene
Hale
Marengo
Pickens
Sumter
* The overwhelming threat today will be large hail. We've already received reports of 1.25" diameter hail in Starkville today, with more hail along U.S. Highway 45 south of Columbus.
* Afternoon sounding from 1 pm in Jackson has arrived. Here are some of the indices:
CAPE: 402
SRH: 151
EHI: 0.38
LI: -3.2
These numbers are not overwhelming, but the atmosphere has destabilized more since then. Also, the cap continues to weaken and has broken across north central Mississippi.
* We'll keep you posted...
Watching and Waiting...
* The NWS in Jackson is planning a special release of an upper-air sounding at 2 pm. This will give us an updated look at the vertical temperature and moisture profile of the atmosphere. I'll post an update with the results of that.
* Front has really slowed down this afternoon. Right now, its running from El Dorado, AR to Tupelo to Crossville, TN. The more the front slows down, the less our severe weather threat.
* Temperature now up to 76, with a dewpoint of 57. Watching and waiting...
Morning Update
* Dewpoints continue to rise quickly across the area. This increase in moisture will aid in thunderstorm development later this evening. Dewpoint at Key Field now up to 58...
* Morning sounding from Jackson shows a pretty strong "cap". Still, with enough heating, we should break the cap later this afternoon across northern Mississippi, where the storms will initially form. Then, the storms will track east, while the front moves south.
* NAM continues to show impressive parameters by later this afternoon and especially into the evening hours. These are valid at 6pm today:
CAPE: 1511
Storm Relative Helicity: 162
EHI: 1.4
LI: -6.0
For a rundown of what each of these mean, check out the post directly below this one.
* I sure get the idea that someone is going to see some pretty big hail today. The combination of intense surface heating and very cold temperatures aloft set the stage. Factor in a very low freezing level (so the hail doesn't melt much as it falls), and I wouldn't be surprised to hear about some golf-ball sized hail or larger. The best chance of this will occur along a line from Louisville to Columbus, but we could certainly see some large hail further south as well.
Early Morning Update
* Still watching all of the data come in...The 6z NAM is rolling out, and it shows thunderstorms developing over northern Mississippi later this afternoon, then forming into a line and sinking southeastward.
* I get the idea that many locations along and south of I-20 will stay dry. Conversely, northern parts of our viewing area will probably see some thunderstorms, some of which will be severe.
* Here are some severe weather parameters off of the 0z NAM. These values are valid for 6 pm Sunday:
CAPE: 1660
Storm Relative Helicity: 177
Energy Helicity Index (EHI): 1.7 (combines CAPE and Helicity)
LI -6.4I don't want to just throw these values around without some explanation.
CAPE is a measure of instability, or the tendency of air to rise. Rapidly rising air is the process behind thunderstorm development. Values above 1000 are generally unstable and favorable for thunderstorms.
Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) measures the vertical wind shear in the atmosphere. When the wind direction shifts in a clockwise fashion as we go up in the atmosphere, this is a profile favorable for enhanced thunderstorm development. For example, if the winds at the surface are from the southeast, and the winds 5,000 feet above the ground are from the southwest - we have shifted clockwise with height. This is favorable for severe weather. Values over 150 are characteristic of thunderstorm environments.
EHI combines CAPE and Storm Relative Helicity. By looking at both instability and wind shear, this value provides a thorough assessment of severe thunderstorm potential. Values over 1 are favorable for severe weather.
LI stands for "Lifted Index". It takes into account how warm the surface is and how cold the temperatures are about 15,000 feet off the ground. Negative numbers are unstable, the lower the number, the more unstable.
These are some of the parameters we look at to determine the severe weather threat on a given day. I must caution you that these are not hard, fast guidelines. Instead, we use these parameters along with a detailed analysis of the atmosphere to try and pinpoint the severe weather potential.
* Maybe it's just late, but I have to wonder why the SPC's Day 1 "Slight Risk" doesn't extend further north. I believe the storms will pop initially across the northern part of Mississippi, and they will be severe there. It wouldn't surprise me to see the "Slight Risk" shifted northward early tomorrow morning. Just food for thought.
* Time to hit the hay!
Midnight Weather Snack...
The new Day 1 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center is out, and our area is under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather. The discussion mentions hail, winds, and a few isolated tornadoes. Again, I believe we will see some warnings tomorrow, so stay close to a good source of weather information. Here's the new Day 1 Outlook:
SPC Day 1 OutlookI'll post another update Sunday morning around 10 AM, earlier if the situation changes...
