Saturday, April 23, 2005

A Cool Sunday Start

Looks like temperatures could get rather chilly out there tomorrow morning. We could see lows anywhere from 34-38 out there, with the coolest temperatures along and west of I-55 and along and north of I-20. The normally cooler locations could see some patchy frost tomorrow.

Winter's last gasp won't last too long, as we should begin a warmup by the first of next week. More showers and storms are possible by Tuesday. Indications are we could see a few strong to severe storms out of this system, but we will keep our eyes on it.

Will try to post something fun tomorrow. Enjoy a beautiful day with low humidity and cool temperatures. We will be wishing for days like these here in a month or so!

Friday, April 22, 2005

Beginning to Wind Down...

* Severe weather threat is diminishing for parts of the area. The NWS has dropped the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas along and north of Interstate 59. Areas south of I-59 will have to monitor things over the next few hours, but the trend is for activity to diminish and move south and east of us.

* For a complete listing of all the damage reports, check out the NWS Public Information Statements:

Mississippi Storm Reports

Alabama Storm Reports

* The numbers from today's event are pretty telling. Lots and lots of hail. Here are the national number of severe weather events since 6:00 AM (valid 9:40 PM):

171 Hail Reports
86 Wind Reports
5 Tornado Reports

Interesting to note that of the 171 Hail Reports, 5 of those saw hailstones 2 inches in diameter or more! Of those 5 LARGE hail reports, 4 occurred in central Mississippi.

* Chilly weather on the way for the weekend. Derek Kinkade will be along to update you on a calm weekend Saturday at 6 and 10! Enjoy the weekend!

Photos?

* If you have any pictures of wind damage or hail from today's storms, send them our way. E-mail them to me at josh.johnson@wtok.com. I'll post them here and try to get them on TV tonight at 10:00. Thanks in advance!

Hail Reports

* Too many individual hail reports to list, but I'll summarize a few from around the area. These happened at or before 7:15 pm:

- Baseball size hail near Tamola in southern Kemper County

- Golfball size hail near Mize in Smith County

- Quarter size hail near Lost Gap in Lauderdale County

- Penny size hail near Rose Hill in Jasper County

- Penny size hail near Decatur in Newton County

- Golfball size hail covered the ground earlier near Taylorsville in Smith County

- Quarter size hail near the Dayton community in Marengo County

- Dime size hail near Demopolis in Marengo County

* In addition to all of the hail reports, we've received reports of funnel clouds in parts of Jasper, Smith, and Rankin counties. Luckily, no reports of tornado touchdowns. We also had an unconfirmed report of softball size hail in Kemper County, just west of De Kalb along Highway 16.

* Back to watching the radar...

Tornado Warning

* Tornado warning has been issued for Kemper, Noxubee and Winston counties until 5:45. Places in the path of the possible tornado are just south of Shuqualak, as well as the towns of Gholson, Scooba, and rural northern Kemper County. Take shelter now!

More Warnings...

* Severe thunderstorm warnings continuing for Neshoba, Winston, Noxubee, Kemper and Sumter (AL) counties...Expiring at various times.

* Have received reports of golfball and even softball sized hail from Kemper County. The worst of it was along Highway 16, from De Kalb west towards the Neshoba County line.

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues until 9 pm. More storms are firing back towards Jackson, most of which are severe. The primary threat will continue to be large hail.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

* New Svr Tstorm Warning for Neshoba and Kemper County until 5:15pm...Golfball sized hail was reported in northeastern Neshoba County with this storm.

* Other storms continuing to rapidly develop across central Mississippi. Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued for several counties in the Jackson and Yazoo City areas. These will affect us later on this evening.

Hale County Storm

* BIG storm in Hale County...Probably getting golfball size hail out of that one. VIL up to 70! Mostly in the southern part of the county...Watching it closely.

* One storm trying to fire in southern Kemper County. Keeping my eye on that one as well...

Detailed Analysis

* This analysis will be in a "thinking out loud" format:

--Timing still looks to be late this afternoon 4-8 pm--

--Watching for development along boundary currently moving through east MS...Nothing happening right now EDIT: New storm just developing over northern Sumter County, Alabama...Not severe at the moment, but we'll watch it--

--Hail is the main threat, with damaging winds a close second...Can't rule out a tornado, especially along and south of I-59--

--Front moving into NW Mississippi right now...Will continue moving south---

--Expect development in central/western Mississippi within the next two hours--

--This development will move our way...Again, rough timeline is 4-8 pm--

* Watching it closely...Will report again in a few hours...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

* SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for much of central Mississippi and Alabama. The watch is in effect until 3:00 pm. Here's the outline of the watch:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

* Still thinking the main threat is wind and hail - but I wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated tornado or two.

* I'm going to do a detailed analysis and will report back here in an hour or two.

New Day 1 Outlook

* The new Day 1 Outlook is out. They have moved it even further east, now including just a sliver of southeast Mississippi. Otherwise, it remains generally the same.

* The forecast has not changed much, hail and wind are the main threats. Timeline is from around Noon - 10 pm.

* Going to run a few errands before things get going later. I'll have an eye to the sky though.

New Day 1 Outlook

* SPC has issued the new Day 1 Outlook. They have moved the Moderate Risk further east, but it still includes roughly along and east of a line from Columbus to Meridian to Hattiesburg. Amazing to note the 45% probabilities for damaging wind and large hail over central Alabama and points northward. It wouldn't shock me to see an upgrade to High risk for areas like Birmingham, Huntsville, and Nashville. The most significant tornado threat will be further north, closer to the surface low.

* Here's the new Day 1 Outlook:

SPC Day 1


* Time to get some rest. After visiting with the students at Pilate Middle School this morning, I drove to Meridian and ate lunch with several of our local EMA friends. They were in town for a workshop, and it was nice to chat with them. Then, from there it was to WTOK for the evening shift. The station played in a benefit basketball game tonight, and I netted a whopping 2 points in a tough 52-51 loss. Then, it was back to WTOK to broadcast the 10:00 news and put together the web update. All in all, about an 18 hour day. But, it's a great job and I love what I do!

Night Notes

* Just finished reviewing the complete suite of 0z computer model guidance. It seems to suggest that the more significant threat of severe weather will be in areas north and east of here, across northern Mississippi, northern Alabama and especially into Tennessee.

* Waiting on the 1 AM update from SPC, just wanted to post the quick update. I would not be shocked if the new outlook shifts the Moderate risk further north. But, we will continue to watch it very closely!

Thursday, April 21, 2005

Watching the Sky...

* Watching the 0z (evening) run of the NAM model come in...Here's a quick glance at the severe weather parameters. These are valid tomorrow at 7:00pm:

CAPE: 2125
SRH: 159
LI: -6.8
EHI: 2.1

While the CAPE and LI are certainly impressive, the Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) and Energy-Helicity Index (EHI) are not that large. This indicates that instability will be high, but the wind shear is not significant. This leads me to believe that the main threat will be damaging winds and large hail.

* I will post again late tonight when the new Day 1 Outlook is posted (just after 1:00 AM). Hope you are awake!

Moderate Risk

* SPC has upgraded to a Moderate Risk...For almost all of our viewing area. I will admit, it's a bit further south than I would have anticipated. The main threat will be damaging winds, with perhaps some large hail. Can't rule out a tornado, but that doesn't appear to be the main threat. Here's the Day 2 Outlook:

SPC Day 2 Outlook


* In the short term, we are watching for a few isolated thunderstorms to develop today. The SPC has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for roughly along and east of Highway 35:

Mesoscale Discussion

* Had a GREAT time with the students at N.H. Pilate Middle School in Newton. If you are a teacher and would like to schedule a weather program for your class, send me an e-mail at josh.johnson@wtok.com!

Renegade Storm

* We had a nice little surprise early this morning, as a thunderstorm developed along an outflow boundary from a cluster of storms in northern Alabama. It wasn't severe, but it was a surprise! Just goes to show you how unpredictable it can be at times...

* New Day 2 Outlook has a Slight Risk and 25% hatched probability of severe weather across northern Mississippi. The northern part of the state could be upgraded to a Moderate Risk later tonight. Here's the outlook:

SPC Day 2 Outlook

* Showers and storms likely tomorrow night, some could be strong. Still don't expect widespread severe weather, but a few isolated severe thunderstorms are certainly possible.

* It turns really chilly this weekend! The latest GFS model run has a low of 36 for Sunday morning! That would be a new record low for that date. Highs will probably stay in the 60's, almost 20 degrees below seasonal averages.

* Heading off to Pilate Middle School in Newton. I'm looking forward to visiting with the students there!

Wednesday, April 20, 2005

Interesting Story

I ran across this and thought you might like to see it. Apparently, researchers have developed a long-range hurricane computer model to forecast the activity during the entire hurricane season. The model uses wind patterns over much of the northern hemisphere to try and predict if the hurricane season will be an active one.

These are exciting times in meteorology, and hopefully this will aid in the preparation process. But, I would caution you that seasonal hurricane forecasting is difficult at best, and generally doesn't offer much in the way of specific information.

Here's the article, check it out:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7574069/

Showers and Storms, Then Cooler

Forecast Notes:

* After a great run of pleasant weather, we are now transitioning to an active pattern. A cold front is gathering strength over the central U.S., and will be moving our way. We'll see a few widely scattered showers or storms tomorrow, especially across northern Mississippi. But, the majority of the storms will come later...

* As the cold front gets closer, our instability values will begin to increase. In fact, the latest run of the NAM shows our CAPE (instability) reaching up over 1000 J/Kg by Friday evening, with a Lifted Index of -3.9. Both of these values are marginal for widespread severe weather.

* The SPC has placed us under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather on their latest Day 3 Outlook:

SPC Day 3 Outlook

* The bottom line is that we may see a few strong or severe storms. The main threat would be damaging winds, but we cannot rule out a few reports of small hail. The tornado threat seems pretty small at this time. The threat of severe weather here is iffy in my opinion - but that can certainly change between now and then. Check this space for frequent updates!

* Big cool-down on the way for the weekend. Highs Saturday will barely reach 70 degrees, and we could see 40 degrees by Sunday morning! We may even set a new record low if our forecast is off by a degree or two - the record low for Sunday is 38.

Tuesday, April 19, 2005

Changes Coming

We have a few changes in our weather heading in our direction. First, we'll probably escape Wednesday and most, if not all, of Thursday rain-free. We might see some showers/storms by late Thursday night.

The better chance of thunderstorms will come by Friday afternoon into Friday night. Some of these could be strong, but we do not anticipate a widespread severe weather event. Keep in mind that its still a few days out, so we'll have to refine the forecast as we get closer to Friday.

We'll see a big cool-down after the front pushes through late Friday night. Highs Saturday will probably stay in the 60's. Morning lows Sunday morning could reach record low levels, with upper 30's possible in some of the low-lying areas. Don't put away the coats just yet!

Monday, April 18, 2005

April 6 Severe Weather Summary

* The National Weather Service in Jackson has completed much of their storm surveys and written an excellent summary of the very active weather day. Included are pictures from the Rankin County (F3) tornado and the F3 tornado that hit Mize in Smith County. Here's the link:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/events/April062005/index.html

* No stormy weather on the immediate horizon. We'll have a sprinkle or two possible Wednesday, but most (if not all) locations should stay dry. Another more significant round of showers will move through late Friday night into early Saturday morning. We may see some storms involved there.

* Back to the 6:00 news...

Sunday, April 17, 2005

Sunday, Sunday...

Oh yeah.. I suppose that song goes "Monday, Monday". Gotta love that 'old' music. I'm 21 years old, but give me that over some of the music that is out nowadays ANY day of the week.

* Looks like a great end to the weekend! We are really going to get spoiled if we have too many more nice weekends in a row. High pressure will be the dominate feature in our weather over the next few days, until about Wednesday or so. As the ridge weakens, more disturbances will try to knock on our door from the west. I've put a 30% chance of rain in for Thursday and Friday, but I believe the most rain might fall on Saturday as a cold front will try to make its way through. I don't think any rain that falls will be a big deal. Nothing severe and nothing heavy at this time.

* Temperatures remain mild, and right around or just above seasonal normals for this time of year. We will go with upper 70s to near 80 through most of the forecast period. With more rain around here Saturday and slightly cooler air behind the front, I'll go with highs in the mid 70s next weekend with morning lows throughout the next seven days in the low to mid 50s.

* For those of you who are interested, the National Weather Service Offices of Jackson and Birmingham have weather pages where they have archived data from past severe weather events and anomolous weather, including hurricanes, tornadoes, winter weather, and other events. You can check those out here to learn about events that you may have witnessed.

For Jackson (JAN): http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/events/index.html
For Birmingham (BMX): http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/altopics.html

* Have a wonderful week!!!!!

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