Tornado warnings for Lauderdale and Kemper counties continues...
*Getting reports now of numerous trees down in both lanes of I-20 just west of Newton. Several traffic accidents have occurred in this area.
* Keep in mind, this storm has produced damage reports throughout the evening so residents in these counties need to take cover immediately.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning now for Jasper county until midnight. Storms are moving to the northeast at 60 mph.
Damage Reports...
0937 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E CARTHAGE 32.74N 89.48W
02/24/2007 LEAKE MS EMERGENCY MNGR
1042 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 W NEWTON 32.32N 89.26W
02/24/2007 NEWTON MS PUBLIC
SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND DEBRIS ACROSS INTERSTATE TWENTY
AROUND MILE MARKER 101. POSSIBLE TORNADO.
Labels: Severe Weather
Storms Reports:
*several trees down along Interstate 20 near mile marker 101 west of Newton due to possible tornado
*
Tornado warning now for Lauderdale County including the towns of Collinsville, Meridian Station.....
* New
Tornado warning for Pickens County until 11:30pm....this includes Aliceville, Cochrane....
*Tornado warnings for Scott and Smith counties have been allowed to expire at this time.
*Tornado warnings still in effect for Newton, Noxubee, and Kemper counties...
*These storms have a history of producing damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. Circulations in both Newton and Kemper counties are pulsing in intensity and residents in these counties need to take cover immediately. There are no reports at this time.
TORNADO WARNING FOR: NOXUBEE, KEMPER, SCOTT, NEWTON
Noxubee county until 11pm. Doppler radar indicated a possible tornado approaching the Macon area.
Kemper county until 11pm. Doppler radar indicated a possible tornado 15 miles west of De Kalb.
Scott county until 1045pm near the town of Morton.
Newton county until 11pm. Doppler has indicated a tornado 17 miles SW of Conehatta.
Take cover immediatly
Tornado Warning - Noxubee, Kemper, Newton
* Tornado Warning for Noxubee County until 11:00 PM.
Warning Text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0702250423.wfus54.html Take cover in Macon, Bigbee Valley, Praire Point, Shuqualak
* Tornado Warning for Newton County until 11:15 PM
Warning Text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0702250423.wfus54.html Take cover in Conehatta, Union, Decatur, Newton, Little Rock, Hickory, Chunky
* Tornado Warning for Kemper County until 11:15 PM
Warning Text:
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings_cat.phtml?year=2007&wfo=JAN&phenomena=TO&eventid=43&significance=WTake cover in De Kalb, Enondale, Preston and across all the county.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Smith Co.
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Smith County until 11:00 PM
* Here is the warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0702250423.wuus54.html* Watch out in the Southern part of the county.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Leake, Neshoba, Kemper Co.
* New warning has been issued for Leake, Neshoba and Kemper County.
* Here is the warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0702250411.wuus54.html* Areas in the warning include Southeast Leake County. Neshoba County areas include Choctaw, Philadelphia, Neshoba, McDonald, Bethsaida. Storms will move later into Western Kemper County.
Tornado Warning - Smith Co.
* Tornado warning for Smith County until 10:45 PM
* Here is the warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0702250405.wfus54.html* The storm will affect the northern half of the county. The warning area does include Burns and Polkville
Rankin County Storm Damage:
*Reports from our online conference from NWS... this is the storm moving into Scott Co.
Lots of trees across roads in the area between Robinhood and shell oil road in Rankin county. may have had a tor down there. said they are getting the major roads cleared but county roads still have trees across.
Trees down on a car in may estates Shell road area
Tornado Warning: Scott County
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0702250400.wfus54.htmlTornado Warning for Scott County...
The circulation is presently very near the intersection of MS 13 and I-20...moving ENE...Will pass close to Pulaski, Morton, and Forest.
The Tornado Warning runs until 10:45 PM.
Labels: Severe Weather
Tornado Warning Rankin County...
* There is a tornado warning for a storm in Rankin County, and it will soon move into Scott County...This storm shows strong signs of rotation, and could be producing a tornado...We believe a Tornado Warning will be forthcoming for Scott County shortly....
Labels: Severe Weather
Severe T-Storm Warning -- Neshoba County
* NWS has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Neshoba County, effective until 10pm...
* Storm moving very rapidly to the NE at 70mph...
* The storm will remain over northernmost Neshoba County, north of Hwy. 16. Wind damage is the main threat.
Labels: Severe Weather
Baseball Size Hail...Madison
Rankin County EOC Reporting that they are getting BB Size hail in Madison, Madision County...Labels: Severe Weather
Severe T-Storm Warning -- Winston County
* NWS has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Winston County...Main threats are large hail and very strong winds, perhaps greater than 70mph...The thunderstorm approaching Winston County is showing signs of "bowing" out, which could certainly increase the threat of damaging winds...
* The entire county will be affected by this storm...Stay indoors.
Labels: Severe Weather
Damage: Clay County
* The NWS has informed us of major damage in Clay County, MS...
trees and powerlines down - barn heavily damaged...We also know of a tree down in Attala County, and large hail has fallen near Weir in Choctaw County..
* Watching and waiting...Watch WTOK/Fox Meridian and listen to AM 1010WMOX for the latest...And, of course, check out the blog...
Labels: Severe Weather
First Warning...
* First warning of the night for our area, and its a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Leake County....* Main threat is damaging wind...This storm will enter into the western part of the county within the next 10-15 minutes, affecting places like Thomastown and Wiggins first, then overspreading the remainder of the county through the next hour.
Labels: Severe Weather
Still Watching, Still Waiting
* We continue to watch the storms and wait on their arrival...
* RADAR DISCUSSION: The line of severe thunderstorms extends from Ackerman to Canton to Natchez...The worst storm at this time appears to be along the Attala/Madison county line, and will soon push into Leake County. But, the entire line is potent.
* The timetable for the second round seems to be working out pretty well, 10pm to 2am...
* We saw no rain and a little sun in E MS today, so theoretically, we should be a bit more unstable...But, the atmosphere is always changing, so we'll just have to see what the storms do as they arrive. There is a chance the line could intensify once it reaches the Hwy 15. corridor.
Labels: Severe Weather
Incoming Severe Weather...
...CLICK THE IMAGE ABOVE FOR THE FULL SIZE VERSION...
The much-anticipated severe weather threat is approaching now. We will begin to see our northwestern most tier of counties go under severe thunderstorm and/or tornado warnings within the next hour...Beginning with Winston and Leake, and eventually overspreading the remainder of the area.
We are all under a tornado watch until 3 AM...
Labels: Severe Weather
New Tornado Watch Until 3:00 AM
* Storm Prediction Center has issued a new Tornado Watch for East Mississippi and West Alabama until 3:00 AM.
* Mississippi counties: Lauderdale, Winston, Noxubee, Leake, Kemper, Neshoba, Newton, Scott, Smith, Clarke, Jasper, Jones, Wayne
* Alabama counties: Sumter, Choctaw, Pickens, Greene, Hale, Marengo, Clarke
* Stay with Newscenter 11 and FOX Meridian for the latest weather information.
Dumas, Arkansas Pics
* An apparent tornado has caused significant damage in Dumas, Arkansas...Here are some pics of the damage, courtesy of Ryan Vaughan with KAIT-TV in Jonesboro, AR (Click on the image below for the full-size version):
Labels: Pictures
6 O'Clock News Update
Storms approaching the area...
Tune in at 6pm for a full weather update. We will take an in-depth look at the severe weather threat in our area and what to expect over the next 8 hours.
Afternoon Thoughts...
* Things are beginning to play out, so let's take this opportunity to update our thinking:
We will deal with two severe weather threats over the next 12 hours.
FIRST ROUND: First, a band of individual cellular thunderstorms will push through parts of the area, mainly the northwestern part of the area, from Forest to Philadelphia to Macon and points west. But, if more activity fires south of the current storms, then more of our area could deal with these storms.
At this point, none of these cellular thunderstorms are tornadic. But, I do feel that as these storms move into central MS, they will encounter a more favorable atmosphere for tornadoes, and the threat will increase a bit.
Timing: Between 6pm and 9pm.
SECOND ROUND: A line of powerful thunderstorms, currently slicing from roughly West Memphis to Monroe, LA to just north of Houston, TX will move through late tonight/early tomorrow morning.
Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the key threats with this band, especially wind damage.
This band of storms will likely affect our area between 10pm and 2 am.
Labels: Severe Weather
Stout Winds..
* BE sure to scroll down for still-pertinent information...
* Just wanted to share a few max wind gusts thus far. These winds are simply from the pressure gradient, and have nothing to do with any thunderstorm activity. Here are the numbers:
Meridian 30 MPH
Jackson 43 MPH
Vicksburg 44 MPH
Greenville 47 MPH
Greenwood 47 MPH
Hattiesburg 35 MPH
* Tornado Watch continues for areas along and west of MS Highway 15 until 9pm...
Labels: Severe Weather
Very Strong Winds Aloft
* The National Weather Service in Jackson is launching an upper air balloon this afternoon, and the data from that launch is coming in as we speak...
* They have informed us that winds at 5000' above the ground are roaring along at 62 knots (71mph)...Those are very strong winds, and processes within thunderstorms help channel those winds toward the surface. This is a big reason we are concerned about the possibility of wide swaths of wind damage, especially if we see some bowing segments within the line.
* RADAR: We are watching the cluster of storms crossing the MS River right now...Those are discrete cells and have the potential to become tornadic. Parts of central MS received sunshine earlier today, so when those storms move into those areas that saw the sunshine, the tornado threat will increase.
* The weather office is fully staffed, we are watching and waiting...Our timing hasn't changed very much, between 4pm-2am, with the worst of it coming after dark.
Labels: Severe Weather
Tornado Watch Issued:
* A TORNADO WATCH is in effect until 9pm CST for the following counties:
-Winston, Leake, Neshoba, Scott, Newton, Smith, and Jasper
*A tornado watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and the threat of tornadoes.
* The watch runs roughly along and West of Mississippi Hwy 15.
Midday Update:
* First a reminder a Wind Advisory remains in effect for all of the WTOK viewing area until 3:00 AM Sunday morning. As you've probably noticed this morning, quite windy outside. Sustained winds will range from 20 to 30 mph, with higher gusts possible.
* Tornado warnings are increasing across Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana. At the moment, there are no counties in Mississippi under warnings or a watch. That will change in the next few hours as storms move toward the Mississippi River. As Josh mentions below in a previous blog entry, the SPC has extended its moderate risk well into a large area of the Magnolia State.
* As Lauren mentions in below in a previous blog, there are scattered showers across Mississippi but just be prepared for the gusty winds ahead of this storm system moving our way.
* Again I strongly recommend if you and your family have not picked out a safe place in your home to go during severe weather, take a few minutes
now while there is no active severe weather to find that safe place. Remember a small room, near the center, away from windows. A basement, a hallway, an interior bathroom, or an interior closet.
* If your going to be out and about early this afternoon doing some shopping, would not be a bad thing to pick up some fresh batteries for the flashlights and the weather radio in case of power outages.
* Again timing of bad weather: Roughly 4pm Saturday - 2am Sunday across our viewing area with the main threat damaging winds and the possibility of some tornadoes.
* Josh, Lauren and I are watching the situation and will continue to keep you updated on the blog with the latest information. We will have team coverage of the storms this evening on Newscenter 11.
Severe Weather Update
*A few spotty showers are beginning to pop up across the area this morning, but no watches are in effect at this time. However, severe weather is expected in SE MS late this afternoon and into the evening hours. A PDS (Potentially Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch Box has been issued just west of the river and encompasses much of Arkansas, extending into northern Louisiana.
*Throughout the afternoon today winds should begin to pick up quite significantly. A Wind Advisory has been issued for our area until 3am Sunday, meaning winds in excess of 30-40 mph is expected.
*As surface winds increase this afternoon, moisture will advect into the area very rapidly. This will create a more favorable environment (more instability) for the storms that do form this afternoon. Be advised that the storms that do form in SE MS will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.
Once we get into the overnight hours, any discrete cells will quickly turn into a very strong squall line.
*Nevertheless, very active weather expected over the next 15 hours....
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
New Day 1 Outlook
Our area is now right on the fringe of the
newly expanded Moderate Risk area. Again, as we've been saying, the question with this event will be instability.
There are a few areas that appear on satellite to be breaks in the clouds. If those are actually breaks in that cloud deck, more sun will be allowed to reach the Earth's surface. This will heat the surface, making things more unstable.
Our dewpoint is still in the 40's, but there are middle 60's dewpoints building into central Louisiana. The air there is becoming rich with moisture and relatively unstable. We will be watching the dewpoint closely here to see how much it rises.
Let's do another overview quickly this morning:
When: 4pm Today - 2am Saturday
Where: All across our area
Main Threat: Damaging Winds and Isolated tornadoes (we won't have many tornadoes, but those that do form could be significant)
* Questions? Shoot us an email and we'll do our best to answer any questions you may have about the possibility of severe weather later today:
josh.johnson@wtok.comchris.whited@wtok.comlauren.raymer@wtok.com* Storm Reports? To give us storm reports, simply leave a comment on the Storm Report blog post, or submit a report using our Online Weather Watcher system.
Storm Report blog (Leave a comment with your location, report, and time of severe weather)
Online Weather Watchers
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Wind Advisory Issued For Our Area:
* Wind advisory is in effect for East Mississippi and West Alabama:
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM CST SUNDAY... AS A STORM SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO HEAT UP STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN...LEADING TO WINDS GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES TRAVELING ON EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ANY LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED. ALSO...AREA LAKES WILL BE ROUGH AND CHOPPY...WATER ENTHUSIASTS ARE URGED TO AVOID OR USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN VENTURING OUT ON AREA LAKES.
A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 MPH OR GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR OCCASIONALLY BRING DOWN LARGE LIMBS AND ROTTED TREES CAUSING SERIOUS INJURY AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS DURING THESE STRONG WINDS.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
NWS Special Weather Statement:
* Quick note from our friends at the National Weather Service in Jackson:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
644 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING... ...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES POSSIBLE...
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI.
THE INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THE MAIN RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
BY MID AFTERNOON...MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES. BY 6 PM...AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXTEND ROUGHLY ALONG THE AXIS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT SEVERE STORMS COULD BE WELL UNDER WAY WELL EAST OF IT.
DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...EXITING TO AREAS EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY 10 PM. THE RISK SHOULD SHIFT ENTIRELY EAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN 11 PM AND 2 AM AS THE BRUNT OF STORMS MOVES INTO ALABAMA. A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF WIND DAMAGE...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD...WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE TWENTY CORRIDOR. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR THE SQUALL LINE WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS STORMS MAY TEND TO REMAIN MORE DISCRETE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH EVENING.
RESIDENTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION TODAY AS WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. PEOPLE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON THROUGH THIS EVENING SHOULD ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE WEATHER INFORMATION READILY AVAILABLE...AND HAVE A PLAN TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Day 1 Outlook
The Storm Prediction Center has issued their
Day 1 outlook, which is a forecast of what they expect to unfold tomorrow into tomorrow night. Here is a pertinent excerpt:
"STRONGLY FORCED BOUNDARY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCHOF THE ARKLATEX INTO AR
AND NRN LA. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORTSUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME IT/S NOTENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER THE
DOMINANT STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DISCRETE...OR PERHAPS EVOLVE
INTO A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE. IF DISCRETE STRUCTURES CAN BE MAINTAINED...
TORNADO THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED AS STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO MS/AL AFTER DARK.
Their outlook agrees well with our going forecast and reasoning. Shear is very high, instability is forecast to be low. But, if enough instability is present to allow the primary mode of thunderstorm to be supercellular (discrete), the tornado threat could be much more substantial that we currently expect. At this point, I still believe the prime threat to be in the form of damaging straight-line winds.
Also, a final note....Winds outside of any thunderstorm activity will be quite gusty today. Many places will see gusts up to 35 mph well before any storms arrive, so you might consider securing any loose items like garbage cans, grill covers, patio furniture, etc.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Friday Evening Thoughts...
* The 0z (Evening) NAM run is in, and continues to support the idea of a line of severe thunderstorms racing through our area tomorrow evening. Here are some important parameters from the latest run, valid at midnight Saturday night:
CAPE: 680.6 J/kg
0-3 KM SRH: 480.6
850mb Winds: 53 kts (or 61 mph)
* Our thinking hasn't changed since earlier today: A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will push through the area tomorrow night, sometime between 4pm Sat. and 2am Sunday. There is some chance that individual cells could fire ahead of the squall line. If that occurs, the threat of severe weather could arrive earlier Saturday afternoon.
* The main threat will be strong straight line winds....Winds aloft are forecast to be quite powerful, and some of those winds will be transported to the surface by thunderstorms. Even outside of the storms, winds tomorrow will be quite gusty, on the order of 20-30 mph.
* Lauren Raymer and Chris Whited will join me at Newscenter 11 tomorrow to watch this situation evolve...We will keep the blog fresh and will also update you on television as the situation warrants...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Severe Weather Likely Tomorrow Evening and Tomorrow Night
* We are starting a 3pm Instant Messaging briefing with our partners at the National Weather Service in Jackson. I will use this space to update you on their thoughts on the severe weather episode that is likely tomorrow evening and night across Mississippi and Alabama:
"...the models imply that a setup that already looked threatening a day or two ago has gotten even more so today. NAM and GFS agree on more surface moisture and instability. based on this, our thinking is that this now has the potential to become a very dangerous event."
"...it looks like some hail-producing thunderstorms may be possible with this activity into the early afternoon hours - mainly north of I-20."
"...shear will obviously not be a problem - 0-3 km SREH values are off the chart greater than 1000 m2/s2 in some areas. any storms that develop in advance of the line and are rooted in the surface will have a significant tornado threat. both gfs/nam agree on convection ahead of the squall line and see no reason to dispute that given the strong moisture advection with this system and height falls moving in."
"...our thinking jives pretty well with SPC that the most significant risk of widespread wind and tornadoes would generally be over southern and western sections of our area - S of I-20 and W of I-55. But there will be a significant threat everywhere."
* Again, we are mostly in agreement with NWS Jackson. We believe the primary threat here is strong damaging winds, but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Midday Severe Weather Update
The
Storm Prediction Center's newest Day 2 Outlook has been published to the web, and continues to indicate a significant threat of severe weather tomorrow night. While the primary concern will be widespread damaging winds, we will also have to stay on our toes for the threat of some tornadoes as well.
I note that the Day 2 Outlook probabillities has us in the "Hatched" area, which indicates an increased possibility of significant severe weather.
Let's take this chance to review the data from the 12z NAM model upper air chart, valid at midnight Saturday night:
CAPE (Instability): 441.4 J/Kg
0-3 KM SRH (Shear): 545.9
850mb Winds: 59 kts or 68 mph
Again, this event is a low instability, extreme shear type setup. There is a chance that the shear will overcome the thunderstorms, and result in only a linear complex of thunderstorms with a high risk of powerful thunderstorm winds. Or, we could muster enough instability to create a tornado threat in any cells that can become discrete.
At this point, my best guess is that we will deal with a line of storms with corridors of wind damage across Mississippi and Alabama. We will likely see widespread severe thunderstorm warnings, and most of those warnings will verify due to wind damage.
As for the tornado threat, it is present, but I believe the threat of wind is greater at this time. That could change, depending on the exact evolution of this system.
* Let's again discuss our thoughts on timing and the other pertinent information about this potential severe weather episode:
When: Supercells are possible as early as Saturday afternoon. A line of storms with damaging winds will push through between 6pm Saturday and 2 am Sunday.
Where: This will affect everyone in our area.
Primary Threat: Damaging winds, with a secondary threat of isolated tornadoes.
* Again, this is not written to alarm anyone. We have many new readers in times like these, so if you are new and reading this, don't feel alarmed. We use this space to thoroughly discuss severe weather threats and get into the science behind them, and it's meant only to prepare you, not scare you.
NWS Special Weather Statement:
* Here is a Special Weather Statement that has been issued from the National Weather Service in Jackson:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
702 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2007
...MAJOR STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ARKLAMISS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VERY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST FROM30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER IN FLATTER "DELTA" AREAS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SUCH WIND GUSTS WOULD HAVE THE ABILITY TO DOWN WEAK TREES...BREAK SMALLER TREE BRANCHES...AND GENERALLY BE AN NUISANCE TO PLANNED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE POWERFUL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG WINDS...AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHEAR...WILL WORK WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO BRING STORM INTENSITIES PAST SEVERE LIMITS. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS THAT AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL RAKE MOST OFTHE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
RESIDENTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION ON SATURDAY AS WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH A LATEDAY SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS...THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW WEATHER EVENTS WILL UNFOLD AND PERSONS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY IF SEVERE WEATHER IS IMMINENT.
Friday Morning Update:
* Note: This weather graphic is just ment to show the broad areas across the Southeast that can see the potental for severe weather over the weekend and the timing *
* Good morning everyone. Catching up on the late night update from the Storm Prediction Center, the SPC maintains a moderate risk for severe weather Saturday from Interstate 55 back toward Louisiana and Texas. A slight risk continues for East Mississippi and West Alabama. Don't let the word "slight" give the notion that the storms won't be bad here. It's Feburary, temperatures are in the 70s, dewpoints are on the increase and atmospheric parameters are in place for a severe weather event.
* I have the same feeling about what to expect here in East Mississippi and West Alabama Saturday as Josh mentioned below in his late night discussion: "Supercells are possible Saturday afternoon, but the primary activity will come between 6pm Saturday night and 6am Sunday morning. The main threat will be damaging winds, but any place along the squall line that becomes broken and more discrete could produce tornadoes. "
* Taking a glance this morning at the NWS Jackson morning forecast discussion, its still a feeling with the forecasters as well that isolated supercells are possible across the area tomorrow afternoon. Toward evening an intense squall line moves across the Magnolia State and into Alabama overnight.
* As I explained in my report last night on Newscenter 11's newscasts, every home in the Twin States needs a NOAA Weather Radio and have a plan in place if storms approach where you live. Take a minute around the family dinner table tonight and talk to everyone about where to go and what to do if a warning is issued for your area. Plan on going to the lowest floor of your home, near the central part of the home. Stay away from and don't open windows! Think a basement, an interior bathroom, a hallway or a closet.
* We'll talk more about the event later this morning on Good Morning Meridian at 6:00 AM and join Josh later today on Newscenter 11 at 5:00 and 6:00 for the latest updates as new weather information will be coming out later this morning and afternoon.
* Have a good weekend and stay safe!
SPC Day 2 Outlook
* Wow. I just read the
new SPC Day 2 Outlook, which includes this statement:
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND DANGEROUS
TORNADOES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON SATURDAY...
I should note that that particular statement applies more to western MS/northern LA/AR/western TN, but the threat here is also significant.
* My thinking has not changed very much. Supercells are possible Saturday afternoon, but the primary activity will come between 6pm Saturday night and 6am Sunday morning. The main threat will be damaging winds, but any place along the squall line that becomes broken and more discrete could produce tornadoes.
* This is the time to make sure you and your family are ready. As someone commented on a previous blog entry earlier, it happens here. We have tornadoes, and people get hurt and sometimes lose their lives as a result of tornadoes. The best way to be prepared is to have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home, and have a severe weather plan. Discuss ahead of time where your family will go in the event of a tornado warning. When discussing this, plan on going to the lowest floor of your home, as close to the center of the home as possible. Think basement, or interior bathroom, hallway or closet.
If you live in a mobile home, it would not be a bad idea to arrange to spend Saturday night at a friend or relative's house, if feasible. There is nothing wrong with mobile homes on fair weather days, but in situations like Saturday night, even strong thunderstorm winds can destroy or topple a mobile home; it doesn't have to be a tornado.
* None of this is written to frighten anyone, I simply want everyone to be prepared for not only anything that may happen Saturday night, but also the rest of severe weather season. The odds of being struck by a tornado are very low, but my point is that a little preparation can go a long way if you do happen to end up in the path of dangerous weather!
Labels: Forecast Discussion
New Model Output
* The evening run of the NAM (North American Mesoscale model) is in, and continues the idea of a low CAPE, high shear severe weather event. Here are the raw numbers, valid midnight Saturday night:
CAPE (measure of instability): 296.6
0-1KM SRH (wind shear in lowest 1km of atmosphere): 551.1
850mb winds: 58 kts (almost 67 mph)
To clarify, the CAPE (instability) above is fairly low for severe weather. However, the wind shear in the lowest levels of the atmosphere is extremely high, and wind speeds aloft are quite impressive.
Here is a scale, courtesy of Ohio State, that shows some APPROXIMATE benchmarks for CAPE measurements. Please note that these are just guidelines and are not firm rules:
| CAPE value | Convective potential |
| 0 | Stable |
| 0-1000 | Marginally Unstable |
| 1000-2500 | Moderately Unstable |
| 2500-3500 | Very Unstable |
| 3500 + | Extremely Unstable |
* We have seen many tornado events over the years that have had CAPE values below 1000 and high wind shear. Will this be another? Impossible to tell at this point. What we do know is that we will see a round of thunderstorms, some severe, push through on Saturday night. At this point, it's my opinion that the primary threat is damaging wind gusts within those thunderstorms. But, tornadoes are also a possibility.
* The weather office will be fully staffed over the weekend for the possibility of severe weather.
Evening Thoughts...
* We still think there is a significant threat of severe weather Saturday night and into Sunday morning..Let's summarize the threat:
When: 6pm Sat-6am Sun (Although we could see thunderstorms earlier on Saturday PM)
Where: All of our area
Most Significant Threat: Damaging Winds and Isolated Tornadoes
Main Limiting Factor: Lack of instability. Surface based instability is forecast to be between 200-500 J/kg; for tornadoes, we usually see values closer to 500-1000. This will be the key factor in determining the magnitude of this event.
* Outside of any thunderstorm activity, winds Saturday and Saturday night will gust up to 35 mph, so you might want to secure any loose items around your home (garbage cans, grill covers, etc.). If you have plans to be on area lakes on Saturday, be aware that the wind will be quite strong.
SPC: Slight Risk
The
Storm Prediction Center has outlooked all of our area under a "Slight" risk of severe weather on Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
Don't let the word "Slight" mislead you, most severe weather events around here are preceded by a Slight risk. Also, there is a very good chance that parts of the Slight risk will be upgraded to Moderate risk, probably west or northwest of here.
There are still questions about just how unstable the airmass will be. We will continue to pour over the model guidance this afternoon and will post more thoughts around 5 or 530pm.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Storm Reports
* To leave us a Storm Report, simply leave a comment on this post! Thank you for your reports; many of them will be featured on television and internet products.
Labels: Storm Reports
Quick Morning Update
* The latest computer model guidance has come in, and suggests we need to move our timing up. So, we are going to amend the forecast to indicate the best chance of severe weather will run from roughly 6pm Saturday night until 6am Sunday morning...Thunderstorms could start as early as Saturday afternoon.
* This is our first big severe weather episode of the "Spring" tornado season. If you own a weather radio, now is the time to make sure the batteries are fresh and the radio is functioning correctly. If you do NOT own a weather radio, now is the time to make that investment. Try to find one with S.A.M.E. technology; that allows you to program the radio to sound only when your home county is put under a warning.
* More later this afternoon...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Stormy Weekend Ahead
* First, let's talk briefly about the weather for the rest of the work week: it looks fantastic. Ample sunshine and temperatures in the 70's headline our forecast for Thursday and Friday. Our attention is focused squarely on the weekend:
* Computer model guidance continues to suggest that we will see a period of showers and thunderstorms from roughly midnight Saturday night until noon Sunday. Some of the storms will be severe, with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
* The key question with this event is instability. With the storms forecast to arrive during the overnight and early morning hours, the amount of surface heating will be low. That means that instability could be low, keeping the severe threat in check. However, we have seen tons of late-night/early-morning severe weather events around here, so we are sticking with the idea that we will see a significant episode of severe weather.
* Now that we are a few days away, let's take a stab at some details on the weekend severe weather threat:
When: Midnight Sat Night - Noon Sunday
Where: Areawide
Main Threat: Damaging Winds and Isolated Tornadoes
What to Do: Make sure your weather radio is functioning properly, and consider the the weather when making your Sunday morning plans. If you are a pastor, please make sure your church has a working weather radio.
* Keep checking back here for updates as we get closer to the weekend...And, enjoy the nice weather on Thursday and Friday!
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Rainy Night...
* Tonight looks like we will see a few periods of rain at times. Parts of the area are already seeing the rain, and all of us will get wet through the overnight hours. We don't anticipate much in the way of heavy rain or thunderstorms, but a few hours of light rain seems likely.
* The weather looks fantastic for Thursday and Friday. We'll deal with a few lingering showers and clouds tomorrow, but the sun will return in full force for the remainder of the work week, with highs in the lower 70's. Enjoy the nice weather!
* Stormy Weekend: We continue to highlight the possibility of severe thunderstorms on Saturday night and especially Sunday...This has all of the ingredients to be a significant severe weather episode for parts of the southern Plains and Southeast: deep surface low, strong negatively tilted trough, powerful winds aloft...The area of greatest threat will be determined by small scale features that we can't nail down yet, but suffice to say that this could be a rather intense episode of severe weather and tornadoes. Keep checking back here for updates.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Severe Weather Awareness Week
* Today marks the beginning of
Severe Weather Awareness Week in Mississippi and Alabama. And, it appears that we have at least one, and possibly two, threats of at least some severe weather over the next seven days.
* First Threat: This threat comes today, and could bring an isolated strong thunderstorm. This doesn't seem like an overwhelming threat at all, in fact, most of us will simply see a few periods of rain.
* Second Threat: After beautiful, warm weather on Thursday and Friday, a very potent storm system will take shape to our northwest by Saturday. A strong front will approach the Deep South, and will match up with very strong wind fields and ample instability to set the stage for a round of severe thunderstorms. While the exact magnitude of this threat remains to be seen, suffice it to say this could be a significant severe weather episode.
* On My Soapbox: If you have a working NOAA Weather Radio, feel free to stop reading at this point. If you don't, read on. Every home, church, and place of business in this state should have a functional NOAA Weather Radio. They sound an alarm to warn you of impending severe weather, and can even be programmed to sound the alarm ONLY when your county is placed under a warning. You can get a Weather Radio at any local consumer electronics store for between $30-50.
* THANKS for reading! Our blog eclipsed the 5,000 hit mark for the year 2007, and we are not even through February...I hope you'll continue reading, and feel free to leave any comments or questions whenever you like.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Nice Weekend Trip...
Tara and I zipped up Interstate 59 on Saturday night to stay at The Cliffs Lodge in Mentone, Alabama. It's a pleasant bed and breakfast, tucked in the pines of Lookout Mountain in the northeastern corner of Alabama.
We had a wonderful trip; we even saw some snowflakes! These pictures are from nearby Desoto Falls.
Any good pictures? E-Mail them to me at
josh.johnson@wtok.com and I will feature them in this space.
Back in the saddle tomorrow, enjoy what's left of your weekend!
Labels: Pictures
...CLICK THE IMAGE ABOVE FOR THE FULL SIZE VERSION...
* Note: This weather graphic is just ment to show the broad areas across the Southeast that can see the potental for severe weather over the weekend and the timing *
Tara and I zipped up Interstate 59 on Saturday night to stay at The Cliffs Lodge in Mentone, Alabama. It's a pleasant bed and breakfast, tucked in the pines of Lookout Mountain in the northeastern corner of Alabama.