Radar Update:
(3:55 PM - Click for Larger View)
* Radar shows a band of light showers over Newton, Neshoba, Leake, Winston, and Noxubee County. We've also got some isolated storms over Choctaw and Marengo County in West Alabama.
* Still watching the MCS (Mesoscale Convective System), or large mass of rain and storms, roughly along and west of Interstate 55. There are embedded storm strong storms in this mass of rain and storms but so far there have been no warnings in Mississippi.
* This mass of rain and showers will continue to move eastward late this afternoon and evening. Expect heavy rainfall (which I don't think we'll have much complaint... scan down the blog to drought numbers I posted earlier today), some gusty winds along with frequently lighting. I still think there is not much of a severe weather threat but I will not rule out a few isolated severe storms.
* Rob has more on your forecast in about two hours at 6:00 on Newscenter 11...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Severe Weather Threat Limited:
(3:00 PM Radar - Click for larger view)
* The large mass of rain and thunderstorms (what we call an MCS) across Western Mississippi seems to be moving a bit quicker than the model runs have been showing so it looks like the severe weather threat is limited. Instability is not developing as quickly as thought and the overcast we have seen across the Twin State area has blocked sunshine for the most part which has not allowed the atmosphere to destabilize. Having said that, isolated strong storms are still possible across East Mississippi and West Alabama tonight and Sunday morning across the area. A few of those storms could become severe. As the MCS moved eastward, we'll have to watch for intensification. I do note on the radar image above the isolated strong cell down in Marion and Lamar county in South Mississippi just west of Hattiesburg. Radar is showing some light rain moving across Neshoba and Leake counties. There is also an isolated storm popping in Southern Smith County. We'll have to watch these isolated cells this afternoon and evening ahead of the MCS.
* Here is the afternoon and evening Hazardous Weather Outlook from the NWS over in Jackson:
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST
ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR.
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST OUT OF LOUISIANA HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION MORE
RAPIDLY THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT
OF UNSTABLE AIR AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
...AND LESSENED THE RISK OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
...FLOODING...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
HARRISONBURG...LOUISIANA...TO VICKSBURG...TO CARTHAGE
TO DE KALB LINE. THE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
GETS INTO SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER
THE SAME AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
SHOULD BE COMMON IN THIS AREA...WITH SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHEREVER STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY. IN SPITE
OF VERY DRY RECENT CONDITIONS...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME PONDING
OF WATER AND MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS.
* More updates here on the blog as needed and Rob has your forecast at 6:00 tonight on Newscenter 11.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Here Comes The Rain:
Current Jackson NexRad Radar as of 2:10 PM
(Click for Larger View)
* Big shield of rain and embedded thunderstorms to our west will continue to move eastward as we go though the afternoon and evening hours. The mass is running roughly along and west of US 61. We are also seeing a few scattered showers in West Alabama and a few isolated storms popping up in Southern Wayne County.
(Click for Larger View)
* Here is the visible satellite image over the Twin State area. We've seen a peak of sunshine now and then here in East Mississippi and West Alabama but clouds have been holding tough most of the day.
* As I write this we sit at 79 over a dewpoint of 61. About 12 miles north of here NAS Meridian sits at 79 with a dewpoint of 59. We still have a moist atmosphere and could see some strong storms later this evening and overnight.
* Rob Hart, our new weekend meteorologist, is watching things at WTOK. I am watching from home and will join him if things start to go downhill with severe weather. Rob will have your complete forecast tonight at 6:00.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Crunching The Drought Numbers:
* Today is the last day of the month and I thought we would recap where we sit on the drought situation for the month and for the year: (as of Saturday morning)
March:
Recorded: 0.38"
Normal: 6.72"
Departure: -6.34"
2007:
Recorded: 6.14"
Normal: 17.99"
Departure: -11.85"
* We're still watching for the development of rain and thunderstorms across the area later this afternoon and into tonight. Latest computer models still suggest a good soaking possible with this system to end March and start April tomorrow.
* Scan down for Rob's update on the severe weather threat today. He'll have more on your forecast on Saturday edition of Newscenter 11 at 6:00. I'm monitoring things from home but will head to the station if things started getting active.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Rain Finally Returns!
Looks like my first day on-air will be an active one!
The Storm Prediction Center has indicated that there exists a slight risk of severe weather for the entire WTOK viewing area. A slow moving cool front will begin to affect the area this afternoon and evening. Right now, it looks like a line of showers and t'storms will begin to move into western portions of our area around mid-late afternoon. The main threat with any storms today will be damaging winds followed by a threat of isolated tornadoes. Hail doesn't appear to be too big of a concern today, as freezing levels in the atmosphere are relatively high.
Everyone runs the risk of seeing a strong storm today, but the areas along and west of US 45 have the greatest threat. I think that we'll see a squall line move towards our area, but gradually weaken once it gets close. However, one thing that is for sure, is that we are going to get some much needed rain! Currently, we are in one of the driest (if not the driest) Marchs on record. Rainfall in Meridian is about six inches below normal for the month! Most places should receive about an inch of rain this evening and tonight, with some areas seeing upwards of two inches! The ground will be very thankful.
Now...a bit about myself. Today I am scheduled to start on-air at WTOK. I'll be doing the weather for the weekend newscasts (with some fill-in during the week) as Ashley McDonald has accepted a position in Montgomery, AL. I am a graduating senior at MS State University, and come to the South from Indiana. I am looking forward to learning about, and experiencing, the East Missisippi/West Alabama area. Feel free to contact me at
rob.hart@wtok.com with any comments/concerns (both good and bad), or if you simply want to say "hi".
I will be contributing to the blog from time to time. But, for right now, I'll be heading to the station shortly to reanalyze the storm situation. Updates will be posted on here throughout the afternoon, as needed. Chris will join me in the studio if the storms become threatening. Stay tuned to WTOK and the blog for further updates. I'll have a complete update tonight at 6.
Rain & Thunderstorms This Weekend:
* Good afternoon everyone. No major change in the forecast from the discussion this morning. It still looks to be a weekend of heavy rain (which is something we want) and thunderstorms. As you can see the SPC 2 Outlook above hasn't changed form the one I posted this morning. The upper level disturbance will move through on Saturday helping increase the rain and thunderstorm chance Saturday and Saturday night.
* I still think the best chance of severe weather will be across Northern and Western half of the state. However I still will not rule out a chance of a severe storm in East Mississippi and West Alabama with this system. I think this is going to be more of a heavy rain event for our area. It is March and severe weather season, so will not rule out severe weather.
* Here is this afternoon's Hazardous Weather Outlook from the Jackson NWS:
...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A
DECENT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR JUST
AHEAD OF IT. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND WEST AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR
WILL HAVE THE BEST RISK OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL AND EAST
MISSISSIPPI MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
THE BEFORE MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
EVERYONE IS URGED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
...FLOODING...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS WILL BE
AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE AREA
WHERE A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THIS MOIST AIRMASS...THEY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT
IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. SOME
STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION WHICH
AGAIN COULD RESULT IN INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY SEE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE DISTURBANCE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE TO ALL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND CAUSES THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SLOW AND STALL OVER THE AREA...POSSIBLY
CAUSING STORMS TO MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA. LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY SEE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
* Ashley is in for me tonight and will have more at 5:00, 6:00 and 10:00. Rob Hart will be in this weekend and I will join him if things get active.
* Have a good weekend and enjoy the rain. One good thing all this pollen in the air and all over our cars and other things will get washed out this weekend!
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Wet & Stormy Weekend:
* Good morning everyone. The new model runs early this morning looking even better for rain in our area this weekend but also tending to favor more of a severe weather threat for the Twin States Saturday and Saturday night.
* Today warm weather will continue across the area. A warm front will move across the area today helping high climb back into the middle 80s and also help more low level moisture move into the area.
* Above is the new Day 2 Outlook from the SPC that came out overnight (valid for most of Saturday). As you can see it is nearly all of Mississippi and a sliver of West Alabama in a slight risk area. Here's the my thoughts this morning. Based in the GFS runs, the low I have mentioned the past few newscasts over the Rockies will continue to move eastward today. The associated trough is moving a decent piece of energy out of the Southwestern United States into Southwest Texas where severe weather is a good bet across the Edwards Plateau and the Hill County of Texas today. That piece of energy is rotating around the trough and will eject northeast toward our area by tomorrow. I will note the models and the morning forecast discussion from the NWS in Jackson indicate this going negatively tilted, which usually favors severe weather development.
* The best instability and lift looks to be roughly along and north of Mississippi Highway 16 tomorrow... or roughly from Carthage to Philadelphia to De Kalb and points northward. The forecaster at the NWS tends to note that he feels the areas south of MS 16 should remain capped from a severe weather event. I somewhat agree as I have thought the past few days and still to a point that the best chance of severe weather will be across Northern half of the state. However I will not rule out a chance of a severe storm along the I-20/US 80 and I-59/US-11 corridor in East Mississippi and West Alabama with this system. Having said that, I think once moisture surges into the state being pulled into this piece of energy that the severe weather threat gets cut for our area and shoved more into the Mid-south region. This could also transition a soaking rain event.
* The GFS model is screaming a heavy rain event for our area and the model returns are showing large globs of precipitation across the area. I think we have a good chance for rain in our area and we could really use it. I would guess we have a setup for at least an inch or two in some spots but as the trough lifts northward the steering winds veer to more of a southwest to northeast pattern, this will enhance the heavy rain threat and could cause thunderstorms to train across the area which could lead to some minor flooding. Its hard to believe we could mention flooding with it being so dry, but if you get multiple inch rains over an area continuously the soil can only take so much.
* Here is this morning's Hazardous Weather Outlook for our area from the Jackson NWS which basically flows with what I mentioned above:
...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PIVOT AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A DECENT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY APRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR JUST AHEAD OF IT. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO FIRE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO JACKSON TO PHILADELPHIA WILL HAVE THE BEST RISK OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE BETWEEN 2PM AND MIDNIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND CAUSES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SLOW AND STALL OVER THE AREA POSSIBLY CAUSING STORMS TO MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 MAY SEE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
EVERYONE IS URGED TO STAY A BREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
* Rain and occasional storms will continue on Sunday as the system will still be close enough to help activity continue across the area and plenty of moisture along with daytime heating.
* Monday and Tuesday look dry and then the next chance of rain enters the forecast my the middle of next week as a cold front drops into the area. This front will bring our Easter cool snap with highs dropping back to near normal for this time of year and actually a little cooler than the normal.
* Down the road April looks be a wet month with a zonal pattern setting up over the Southeast with rain chances being painted on the long range models (per the 12Z GFS) on April 4th, and roughly from the 9th - 14th. It also looks like a cooler pattern takes shape during April too with the indications parts of the Southeast will see some mornings with frost possible at times.
* I know I have said a lot here in this blog but honestly the models have changed quite a bit since yesterday and will probably change as we go through the day.
* More on the weekend forecast at 6:00 AM on Good Morning Meridian. Ashley McDonald is going to cover the evening newscasts tonight. Again I want to welcome Rob Hart, our new weekend meteorologist, who will be here with you this weekend. Ashley McDonald is leaving us on the weekends for a job in Montgomery. She will still he here helping me out on Friday nights until we get back fully staffed. I will be here to help Rob if the weather goes downhill Saturday. I'll have another detailed blog update later today after I get some rest and look at the new data later today.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Rain Returns This Weekend:
* The drought numbers still not looking good for our area as we are now creeping upwards toward 12 inches below normal for the year and as you can see March is usually a wet month for the Twin States but not this time around...
* We didn't make it into the the upper 80s today as first thought only having hit 85 for the afternoon high... so model guidance was a little warmer than thought so I am going to back the temperatures back a few degrees for tomorrow. Daytime highs will remain into the 80s through at least next week with overnight lows into the 50s. A cold front will move into Mississippi and Alabama the middle part of next week bringing cooler weather in time for Easter.
* Rain chances are starting to look a lot better with ever model run for the first of April. We'll see a good chance of rain and thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday across the Twin States as a strong system drops into the the Southern Plains and tracks eastward towards the Southeast over the area this weekend. We could see a stray severe storm this weekend but I don't expect an overall severe weather threat.
* Down the road April looks be a wet month with a zonal pattern setting up over the Southeast with rain chances being painted on the long range models (per the 12Z GFS) on April 4th, and roughly from the 9th - 14th. It also looks like a cooler pattern takes shape during April too with the indications parts of the Southeast will see some mornings with frost possible at times.
* Again, here are the burn bans in our area:
(Source:
Mississippi Forestry Commission)
Clarke County until April 19, 2007
Lauderdale County until April 3, 2007
Jones County until April 20,2007
Newton County until April 23, 2007
Wayne County until April 9, 2007
Noxubee County until further notice.(Source:
Alabama Forestry Commission)
Choctaw County until further notice
Clarke County until further notice
Sumter County until further notice
Marengo County until further notice
Hale County until further notice
Pickens County until further notice
* The city of Meridian is also under a burn ban as well.
* See you at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00 and back Friday on Good Morning Meridian. Ashley McDonald will handle the Friday night shift. I'd like to welcome Rob Hart to our weather team. He will be replacing Ashley who is heading to Montgomery for her new job. Ashley will still be around helping us out now and then during the week.Labels: Forecast Discussion
Staying Warm & Rain Chances This Weekend
* Warm weather will continue the rest of the work week as southerly winds will push our daytime highs back into the middle and upper 80s in our area. Right now I am calling for a high tomorrow of 88 in my forecast package. I will note the record high Thursday for Meridian is 88 which was set back in 1974. Highs will be back into the upper 80s on Friday as well. Don't be surprised if someone here in East Mississippi and West Alabama sees 90 on the backyard thermometer the next couple of days.
* This seven day forecast is looking nice as far as rain chances starting this weekend and into next week. A strong low pressure spinning over the Rockies will dive into Texas and Oklahoma over the next few days bringing severe weather to those areas. This system will track eastward over the weekend and bring a good chance of rain into our forecast Saturday night and into Sunday and Sunday night. For now we will not mention severe weather as the stronger dynamics will remain to our north over the Mid-South region, but I will say that we could see a strong storm. Well keep an eye on the system the next few days. We also continue chances for rain next week along and ahead of a cold front that will moved through the Twin States on Tuesday and Tuesday evening. We'll see a slight cooling trend my the middle of next. I would say this looks to be our "Easter Snap" or as some call it "Blackberry Winter"... the last cool down we see around Easter here in the Southeast.
* Burn Bans continue in the following areas:
(Source:
Alabama Forestry Commission)
Choctaw County until further notice
Clarke County until further notice
Sumter County until further notice
Marengo County until further notice
Hale County until further notice
Pickens County until further notice
(Source:
Mississippi Forestry Commission)
Clarke County until April 19, 2007
Lauderdale County until April 3, 2007
Jones County until April 20,2007
Newton County until April 23, 2007
Wayne County until April 9, 2007
* The city of Meridian is also under a burn ban as well.
* See you at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00 and back Thursday on Good Morning Meridian...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Scott County Warning Canceled
* The NWS has canceled the Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Scott Co. The storm has weakened below severe limits but may still produce some gusty winds.
Warning cancellation text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0703272254.wwus54.htmlLabels: Severe Weather
Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Scott Co.
* The Jackson NWS has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 6:30 PM CDT for Scott County.
Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0703272223.wuus54.htmlThe storm will affect Morton and Forest. Radar is indicating nickel size hail with this storm. It is moving Northeast at 20mph.
Labels: Severe Weather
Watching The Radar:
(Click image for larger view: 4:00 PM Radar)
* At the moment there is no activity on radar here in East Mississippi and West Alabama. Scattered showers and a few storms have popped up just south of Jackson and will move East and Northeast through the evening. Other storms are popping up over the Delta and into Northern Louisiana. There is severe weather going on over North Louisiana and Southern Arkansas but this activity will track northeast with the actual storm system as it lifts northeast.
* Isolated storms are still possible over the Twin States area this evening but we are not expecting severe weather in our area. If we see any severe weather tonight, it will remain over far West Mississippi and across the Delta.
* As you can see from the extended forecast above, we have another chance of rain come Saturday afternoon. In my opinion this looks to be a decent chance for our area. Right now we will not mention severe weather just yet, but I'll be watching the system the next few days. Overall point is a decent chance of needed rain.
* Another rain chance enters the forecast next week as we start April. Models still show the south developing under a zonal pattern (west to east flow) which would put us under a more wet pattern.
* Daytime highs remain some 10-15 degrees above normal with no cooler weather in site. We all know living in the Southeast that we get a cool snap around Easter... so I still say we have we have another cool wave in our area.
* More tonight at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Ring Around The Moon...
* If your out this evening you've probably noticed the ring around the moon. The rings are caused by the refraction of moonlight from high level cirrus clouds (ice crystals) in the upper atmosphere. The shape of the ice crystals results in a focusing of the light into a ring. Since the ice crystals typically have the same shape, namely a hexagonal shape, the moon ring is almost always the same size.
* Also there is the saying "ring around the moon, storm coming soon..." We need some rain, so maybe this is a good sign and a hint at the rain chances tomorrow afternoon. These cirrus clouds are coming off the system that is bringing rain across Texas.
Labels: General Thoughts
More Counties With Burn Bans:
* More counties in West Alabama were added to the burn bans today and are now under Fire Alerts by the Alabama Forestry Commission:
(Source:
Alabama Forestry Commission)
Choctaw County until further notice
Clarke County until further notice
Sumter County until further notice
Marengo County until further notice
Hale County until further notice
Pickens County until further notice
* Several counties here in East Mississippi also continue under burn bans until the dates noted when county supervisors will meet to discuss the continuation of those bans:
(Source:
Mississippi Forestry Commission)
Clarke County until April 19, 2007
Lauderdale County until April 3, 2007
Jones County until April 20,2007
Newton County until April 23, 2007
Wayne County until April 9, 2007
* Scan below for more on the drought situation in our area...
Labels: Public Information Statements
Watching The Models For Rain Chances:
* A slight chance of rain will return to the forecast late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night as a system moves northeast out of Texas. The proximity of the trough may be enough to kick off the rain chances here in East Mississippi and West Alabama. The better rain chances look the best to to our west, but still there is a slight chance for some rain in our area. Right now we will keep the rain chances at 20-30%.
* The next rain chance will affect the Twin States on Saturday as storm moves toward the area. This system looks to bring a decent chance of rain to the area and right now we will hold the chance at a 50% coverage.
* Down the road the GFS model continues to indicate a zonal pattern developing across the Southeast with more chances for rain events to affect the Twin States. Right now the models show rain chances on April 6, 8, 14 and 16th. I will mention that we'll have to watch these storm systems as April is a typical active month for severe weather here in our area.
* Temperatures remain about the same with highs running 10 to 15 degrees above normal for daytime highs and overnight lows running a few degrees above normal.
* More on your forecast at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00 here on Newscenter 11...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Desperate Need For Rain:
* Wrapping up the weekend the numbers still do not look good for our area on the rain situation. As of Sunday morning we now sit at -5.02" of rain for the month of March and for the year we now sit at -10.53" of rain.
* Burn bans are in place for the city of Meridian and the town of Marion here in Lauderdale county. There are also burn bans in the following counties in Eastern Mississippi and West/Southwest Alabama:
(Source: Mississippi Forestry Commission)
Clarke County until April 19, 2007
Lauderdale County until April 3, 2007
Jones County until April 20,2007
Newton County until April 23, 2007
Wayne County until April 9, 2007
(Source: Alabama Forestry Commission)
Choctaw County until further notice
Clarke County until further notice
* Warm weather stays with us this week with daytime highs in the 80s and lows into the 50s
* Models are still hinting at the chance for showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm on Tuesday across the area.
* Long range models bounce back and forth on rain chances in the extended periods (based on the 12Z and 18Z GFS Runs). Models bring a decent line thunderstorms across Mississippi and into West Alabama on Friday night and into Saturday. These models also hint at a chance of rain again around April 5th and 7th. The 18Z GFS caught my attention on April 8th (Easter Sunday). If this model holds we could see a decent setup for severe weather in our area with a strong trough digging across the central part of the country. Of course that is two weeks away and this pattern will probably change as we go through time.
* Ashley will have more on your forecast tonight on the Sunday edition of Newscenter 11 at 10:00 and I am back with you Monday morning and evening on Good Morning Meridian, Live at 5:00, 6:00 & 10:00.
* Have a good week!
Labels: Forecast Discussion
(3:55 PM - Click for Larger View)
