Twin States Weather Blog

Rain & Thunderstorms This Weekend:

* Good afternoon everyone. No major change in the forecast from the discussion this morning. It still looks to be a weekend of heavy rain (which is something we want) and thunderstorms. As you can see the SPC 2 Outlook above hasn't changed form the one I posted this morning. The upper level disturbance will move through on Saturday helping increase the rain and thunderstorm chance Saturday and Saturday night.

* I still think the best chance of severe weather will be across Northern and Western half of the state. However I still will not rule out a chance of a severe storm in East Mississippi and West Alabama with this system. I think this is going to be more of a heavy rain event for our area. It is March and severe weather season, so will not rule out severe weather.

* Here is this afternoon's Hazardous Weather Outlook from the Jackson NWS:

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A
DECENT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR JUST
AHEAD OF IT. THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND WEST AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR
WILL HAVE THE BEST RISK OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL AND EAST
MISSISSIPPI MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
THE BEFORE MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

EVERYONE IS URGED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

...FLOODING...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.  THIS WILL BE
AS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE AREA
WHERE A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THIS MOIST AIRMASS...THEY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT
IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.  SOME
STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION WHICH
AGAIN COULD RESULT IN INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY SEE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE DISTURBANCE AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE TO ALL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA AND CAUSES THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SLOW AND STALL OVER THE AREA...POSSIBLY
CAUSING STORMS TO MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA. LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY SEE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* Ashley is in for me tonight and will have more at 5:00, 6:00 and 10:00. Rob Hart will be in this weekend and I will join him if things get active.

* Have a good weekend and enjoy the rain. One good thing all this pollen in the air and all over our cars and other things will get washed out this weekend!

Labels: Forecast Discussion

posted by Chris Whited @ 3:14 PM