Current Radar/Rain Totals:
(Click on image to enlarge and refresh the page for the radar to update)
* Scattered thunderstorms continue across Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama this morning and will continue to develop as the cold front moves in from the east.
* As of 8:00 AM:
Meridian - Key Field: 1.99"
NAS Meridian - McCain Field: 1.07"
* Feel free to share your rain totals with everyone. Leave your rain totals in our comment section!
Labels: Forecast Discussion
RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY!
During the day Wednesday, a cold front will be moving through East Mississippi and West Alabama which brings good and bad news. I like being positive so let's start with the good news. This cold front will be bringing decent rain chances to the area; furthermore, I am forecasting at least 60% coverage. So with 60% coverage, some folks may see little or no rain but we will take what we get. A few storms may briefly become strong to severe; however, those should be isolated. A few storms may also produce locally heavy rainfall; however, this event will not be a drought buster, and rain does not return to the forecast again until the middle to end of next week. Now for the bad news; if we do not get at least some decent rain amounts across the area Thursday will pose a fairly high fire threat. On Thursday, humidity across the area will be considerably lower behind the cold front; furthermore, combine that with very breezy northerly winds at 10-20 miles per hour and you have got a high fire danger. Now Meridian is under a burn ban so of course you can't burn inside the city; however, you need to exercise extreme caution even if your area is not under any kind of ban. My advice for the next few days, just stay away from outside burning.
Also of note, East Mississippi and West Alabama are now experiencing an extreme drought which is one category worse than the severe drought we were experiencing. I will have more on this in tomorrow's blog.
God Bless
Labels: Forecast Discussion
More Smoky Haze & Isolated PM Storms Today:
* Very warm and humid this morning as I write this about 4:40AM... The haze has stuck with us all night and it has mixed with fog this morning so be careful out and about this morning.
* We are expecting another day of that smoky haze just like we saw on Monday across the Twin States with partly cloudy skies. Again with daytime heating we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms pop by late afternoon across the area. These storms form, don't move much, rain themselves out and send out mini-outflow boundaries, and another storm will pop. These storms can pulse up to briefly be severe but usually quickly weaken. (Just like the storm in Smith County yesterday)
* Still watching the progression of a cold front working southward toward Mississippi and Alabama Wednesday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms for the Twin States. At the moment, the models show a band along the front moving through both states and arriving around our area by the middle of the afternoon. Models indicate rain amounts of around 0.25 to 0.50". There will be a slight cool down behind the front with highs dropping into the lower 80s by late week and the weekend and upper 40s by Friday and Saturday morning.
* Models are showing another frontal boundary stalling out across the Twin States around the 24th of the Month which could bring another round of some showers and a few thunderstorms.
* Drought: Crunching the numbers this morning show we are -2.26" of rain for the month of May and we are still hurting at -16.52" for the year so far. The US Drought Monitor and the Palmer Drought Severity Index still place the Twin States area under a severe stage drought.
* Fire Danger: The cooler air behind the front will lower relative humidities so the fire danger will be elevated into the weekend. A reminder as Newscenter 11 reported yesterday, the city of Meridian has been once again placed under a burn ban.
* Tropics: The GFS long range model out about 16 days (around the 30th of May) still shows a "system" in the South Central Gulf of Mexico. The last few model runs have been persistent in showing this feature. Of course I still note that far out on these forecast models is "voodoo land" and will probably change... but having said that, it will be something to watch the next week or so to see if models hold onto this "system." Interesting to note, this comes about the time we get ready to officially start the Atlantic Hurricane Season (June 1). If the system were to develop (pending no other formations prior to that) it would take the "B" name on the list which this year is "Barry."
* More on the forecast here in a little less than an hour on Good Morning Meridian: Early Edition and the normal Good Morning Meridian. Trent Hughes is back tonight with the evening shows at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Current Local Radar:
(Click on image to enlarge and refresh the page for the radar to update)
* Scattered thunderstorms continue across Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama this late afternoon and evening. These storms should begin to end after sunset.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Mixed Bag In The Weather...
... with a smoke and haze, a cold front with some rain chances, elevated fire danger later at the end of the week and weekend and "Barry" possibly forming in the Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico late this month...
* A lot happening today in the weather. As I right this at around 4:30 isolated storms have popped in spots across Eastern and Central Mississippi and Western Alabama. These will pop up and not move much and will rain themselves out.
* Smoke/Hazy: Surface winds are blowing from the southeast and east (see my blog below) and are pulling smoke from the fires in South Georgia and Northern Florida over into our part of the world. Southeasterly winds will continue to pull smoke from the wildfires over Southern Georgia and Alabama into Eastern & Southeastern Mississippi and Western and Southwestern Alabama until the front kicks our winds to the north later this week. The smoke will cause very hazy conditions across the Twin States. There is a very slight chance of an isolated afternoon storm today.
* Cold front and somewhat better rain chances: A moderate cold front will work southward toward Mississippi and Alabama Wednesday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms for the Twin States. At the moment, the models show a band along the front moving through both states and arriving around our area by the middle of the afternoon. There will be a slight cool down behind the front for the end of the week and weekend as the front will bring relative humidity down. This also will increase the fire danger threat for the late week and weekend. Models indicate rains from around 0.25 to 0.50"...
* Fire Danger: Despite the rain chances for midweek, cooler and dryer air will move into the Twin States late week and this weekend and will dry out the moisture that fell and lower relative humidities so the fire danger will be elevated. I should note the city of Meridian has once again been placed under a burn ban (see the news section of
http://www.wtok.com)
* Tropics: If you read my blog from this morning about a "system" at the end of the month... not much chance. The GFS 12Z model still shows a system of some sort moving into the Southern Gulf of Mexico around the 29th and 30th of the month. Models have this feature moving northward right now. I will say we don't want to see anything major but a tropical depression with some good heavy rain would really make a dent in the severe drought for our area. I will note that models this far out are out in "voodoo land or the weather boonies" so it will be interesting to watch how this pans out. You can check things out to by checking out the models at the NCEP website at:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/The 0z and 12Z (7pm & 1PM CDT) GFS runs are the longer range models (going out 16 days). Click on the 4 panel charts and just choose a day and time in the left column. Once the page opens, surface precipitation forecasts are in the bottom left hand box of the 4 panels... just something for you to check out as well. These are the models we meteorologists look at every day for forecasting. There not always practical... but then again the science of meteorology is not either.
* We'll talk more about the forecast here in a bit on Newscenter 11 at 5:00 and later at 6:00 and 10:00PM... and back bright and early from 5:30 - 7:00 AM Tuesday morning on Good Morning Meridian.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Smoke and Hazy Skies Over Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama:
Afternoon Visible Satellite Image
19Z Surface Wind Contours
(Note the winds are flowing from South Georgia and North Florida across South Alabama and into Southeast, Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama.)
* Skies are very hazy and smoky over the Twin States this afternoon as you may notice if you are out and about today.
* The Mississippi Forestry Commission reports
no fires in the area. The smoky and hazy skies are coming from the fires over Southern Georgia, Northern Florida, and a fire in the Florida Panhandle just across the Perdido River from Baldwin County, Alabama in Escambia County Florida... not to far from Pensacola. Winds out of the southeast this afternoon are pulling the hazy and smoke into Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama... so if you have respiratory issues you may want to remain inside this afternoon.
* Just in from the Newscenter 11 newsroom... The City of Meridian has been placed once again under a burn ban. There is more on the story on our news section of our website at
www.wtok.comLabels: Forecast Discussion
Rain Chances By Midweek:
* Another warm day is setting up for the Twin States as a weak high pressure dominates the weather for the area. Daytime highs will hit the upper 80s and lower 90s today. There is a slight chance of very isolated thunderstorms today.
* A decent rain chance (about a 50% chance) comes into the forecast by Wednesday as a front works into the Twin States. Once the front passes, daytime highs will drop into the lower and middle 80s with lows by Friday and Saturday morning making it into the upper 40s.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Current Radar:
(Click to enlarge and hit refresh to update)
* Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the Twin States this afternoon. Some storms could briefly pulse up to severe levels at times. Stay with us for updates. Rob Hart will have the latest on Newscenter 11 on the television side and both of us here on the blog.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING!
First of all, an area of low pressure off the Southeast U.S. has folks already thinking about the 2007 hurricane season. This is a non-tropical low centered about 230 miles ESE of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, and it's producing gale force winds and high seas across the Eastern Seaboard. The National Hurricane Center will send an Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft into the system tomorrow if necessary, but the forecast is for this low pressure area to weaken over the next 48 hours.
The backdoor cold front that slipped through East Mississippi and West Alabama and brought the cooler temperatures and lower humidity to the area late Sunday has now stalled across Louisiana. So back to our west they are seeing some shower and thunderstorm activity along and ahead of that boundary across Northwest and North Central Louisiana. Even further west, our next weather maker is in the form of an upper level low pressure system located right now over the southern Rockies, and this system will be on the move into Texas over the next 24-48 hours. The GFS forecasting model has this upper level low dropping down through central parts of Texas and then into the northern Gulf of Mexico; furthermore, if this scenario plays out we will see decent rain chances from Thursday through the weekend and perhaps beyond. However, if the upper level low decides to track across the Plains and stay north of our area that will mean considerable less rain chances for the Twin States. Let's hope the first scenario plays out, and we get some rain. We are around 15.54" of rain behind for the year and area lakes and rivers are really feeling the effects of this severe drought. For more information on the Greensburg, Kansas EF-5 tornado scroll down and check out Chris' blog.
God Bless
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Slight Risk For Severe Weather Today
* The SPC has our area under a slight risk for severe weather today. The primary threat would be damaging winds and hail. Very muggy out there this morning with dewpoints in the 60s. Storms will increase in coverage as we go through the day.
* Strong storms are starting to develop to across South and Southwest Mississippi this morning and as well as Central Mississippi. This activity will move to the east and northeast as we go through the morning and will affect our area later. Already have seen some warnings in Southwest Mississippi this morning.
* More information during Good Morning Meridian updates during Good Morning America and here on the blog...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Severe Weather Potential!
The Storm Prediction Center has put our Mississippi counties in a slight risk for severe weather tonight into at least Friday morning. A slow moving complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is pushing from Louisiana into western and southwestern Mississippi at this hour. This complex of storms should continue pushing off to the east during the overnight hours. Over the past couple of hours, we have noticed this system weakening somewhat; however, let's not drop our guard just yet. I think the main threat with these storms will be damaging wind and large hail, but an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out. The forecast models we look at are doing a terrible job of handling this event so here is what I think. The best time frame for seeing this activity will be from the early morning hours on Friday until the mid-afternoon; the reason for the broad time frame is once again due to how poorly models are performing. The convection should weaken overall, but still there will be a threat for at least some isolated severe thunderstorms. I will be here as long as the potential for severe weather exists, and Chris will come in if things start getting out of hand. Let's just hope this thing holds together so we can get some much needed rainfall.
God Bless
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Storms Approaching From Our Southwest:
(Click for larger view)
* Band of strong to severe thunderstorms is approaching our southwestern counties of the Newscenter 11 viewing area. At the moment there are no warnings in our viewing area. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are in effect over South Central Mississippi with the storms in Simpson, Marion and Jefferson Davis County.
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for Jones County only until 4:00 PM. We'll have to wait and see here if the SPC decides to extend a new watch more into our viewing area.
* Trent will have more on the television side and here on the blog this afternoon and evening. I will also be updating here on the blog if storms start to affect our area.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
8:00 AM Update
* Isolated thunderstorms have popped up just west of Meridian in Lauderdale County. There are also isolated storms popping up in parts of Jasper County.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Isolated Storms Today:
* Good morning... we've already seen some isolated storms this morning across parts of Winston and Noxubee County. With a moist atmopshere and daytime heating storms will pop up in random spots today.
* Better rain chances come into the forecast later tonight and tomorrow as the system over Texas finally moves our way. Models keep the area wet through next week so isolated storms will be kept in the forecast.
* No heat relief: No cool down is expect as daytime highs remain in the middle 80s and overnight lows in the lower 60s.
* New Weather Blog: We are starting a new weather blog that will be run through our website server and not the blogger server here soon. Its not up yet as we are still working out the bugs but we will switch to it here in the next week or so. The new link for the weather and other stations blogs is:
http://www.wtok.com/wtokblogs* Have a great day...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Evening Update:
Forecast models are doing a poor job handling the convective system racing across Texas. This system has produced widespread wind damage across Texas with tornado and hail reports as well; furthermore, check out all the storm reports across Texas associated with this event by looking at the above image. This system has pushed well ahead of the primary upper level disturbance which is located in eastern New Mexico and western Texas. So the further this complex of storms moves east it should weaken as it gets away from the main support. I will call for this system to weaken as it heads toward the Mississippi River, but check Chris' forecast out tomorrow morning just in case it does hold together. As the main upper level disturbance across eastern New Mexico and western Texas continues to move east, we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms developing Thursday afternoon. This shortwave will move across Mississippi on Friday and bring us our best chance for rain and thunderstorms.
Have a good night,
God Bless
Labels: Forecast Discussion
A Few Showers Today, More On The Way!
A few showers moved across our western counties earlier today, and we had a couple of thunderstorms across eastern Wayne County and also southern Choctaw County Alabama. All of that activity is now dissipating, and really we only had maybe 10-20% total coverage. Most of the rainfall at this hour is moving across North Mississippi, and this activity should stay to the north of our area indicated by the first radar image you see.
The second radar image is from the Dallas/Forth Worth area, and as you can see that are getting some hefty thunderstorm action. The activity across Texas is associated with an upper level disturbance that is moving in our direction. I don't think we will see the severe weather they are seeing across parts of Texas; however, this upper level feature (shortwave) will provide us with scattered shower and thunderstorm chances for later in the day Thursday. The shortwave should be moving across Mississippi by Friday, that will be the time period when we see our best chance for showers and thunderstorms.
God Bless
Labels: Forecast Discussion
SCATTERED STORMS ON THE WAY!
As high pressure continues to slip off to the east, it will allow fairly week upper level disturbances to affect East Mississippi and West Alabama. On this Tuesday night, an upper level low is centered across the Southern Plains; however, as this system lifts to the northeast it will have very little impact on our weather because most of the rainfall will stay to the north and west of the Twin States. So Wednesday will be for the most part dry with very warm temperatures continuing. By the way, today we hit a high of 88° at Key Field in Meridian which gives us our warmest day of the year so far. I will hold out for a 10% chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two on Wednesday, but the best chance of rain will stay to the west of Interstate 55. By late Wednesday, another upper level disturbance should be moving into West Texas, and this system will continue to move off the the east on Thursday. With our warm and moist atmosphere in place, as this disturbance approaches our area scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on the menu for Thursday and Friday.
The above map was generated by the GFS Model at 12Z (7:00 a.m.) this morning, and it is showing precipitation for 0Z Friday which is really 7:00 p.m. Thursday. And just so you know what you are reading here is a little guide taken from Unisys Weather. (The quantitative precpitation field shows estimated 12 hour precipitation (liquid equivalent) for the 12 hour period prior to the valid time). So it basically shows rainfall rates below a 0.25" across the area from 7 a.m. Thursday through 7 p.m. Thursday. However, isolated rain totals could approach 0.50" or even higher with stronger storms. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time, but any storm that develops may produce gusty winds, brief heavy downpours, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. We need the rainfall because we are 14.43" behind for the year.
God Bless
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Welcome To May:
* Very mild morning across Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama this morning. Temperatures are in the middle 50s as I write this with clear skies in the area. Nice almost full moon in the sky this morning. It will be officially full tomorrow May 2nd.
* Daytime highs will climb back into the upper 80s today on southerly winds. A few clouds will drift in from the west as we go through the day so mostly sunny skies will dominate the forecast.
* Rain chances: The high over the Southeast is still keeping the storm system over Texas from moving much but eventually it will move toward Mississippi as the high weakens and shifts out of the area. A cold front will drop down into the Tennessee Valley by Wednesday night and will stall just to our north. The combination of the low moving in and the front will help showers and storms in the forecast Thursday and Friday. The front will stall over Southeast and another low over the Southwestern US will work this way over the weekend and first of next week keeping clouds in place with a few thunderstorms in the forecast.
* More on the forecast on Good Morning Meridian from 5:30 - 7:00 AM. Also join Trent tonight at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
April Ends Warm & Dry... May Starts Warm & Dry:
* As we start May tomorrow, a warm ridge dominates the Southeast and is keeping things warm and dry across the Twin States. Daytime highs yesterday were in the middle and upper 80 and we are heading in that same direction today. The warm trend will stay with us through the extended periods.
* Rain chances this week: A storm system over Texas that is being blocked by the high will eventually move toward Mississippi as the high weakens and shifts out of the area. A cold front will drop down into the Tennessee Valley by Wednesday. The combination of the low moving in and the front will help showers and storms in the forecast Thursday and Friday. The front will stall over Southeast and a few more weak shortwave lows will move across through the weekend and first of next week keeping clouds in place with a few thunderstorms.
* Drought Monitor: US Drought monitor still has our area under Severe Stage Drought levels. We are ending the month of April only picking up 3.28" of rain. Most of that came with the two inch rain event last week. April officially ends at -2.34 below normal but the year still stands severe at -14.26" for Key Field.
* More on your forecast here in a bit on Newscenter 11 at 5:00 and later at 6:00 and 10:00. I am back again with you bright and early (though I might be a bit tired) on Good Morning Meridian: Early Editon at 5:30 AM Tuesday and Good Morning Meridian from 6:00 - 7:00 AM.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Warm & Dry Though Midweek:
* I am running a bit late on the morning blog update this morning... sorry about that everyone.
* High pressure will be dominate the Twin States through Wednesday. Our next chance of rain will be late Wednesday night through Saturday as upper level disturbances affects the region.
* A front will move south along with a the disturbance over Texas will combine to affect our area by Thursday and Friday. Another disturbance will affect the area over the weekend but it will not be a total washout.
* I'll have a more detailed forecast on the blog later today as I am back in at 5:00, 6:00 and 10:00 covering the evening shift for Trent.
* Have a great week!
Labels: Forecast Discussion
