Come On Rain!
"The day is not over yet." This is what my Chief Meteorologist in Alexandria likes to say when it comes to receiving rainfall. So as we continue to try and get that 40% coverage, I do see a few showers and thunderstorms mainly just to the north of our viewing area. Like yesterday, any storms that get going may briefly become severe with hail and wind being the main threats not to mention heavy downpours. I understand there have already been a couple of warnings across North Mississippi and North Alabama. Even though I am working in Alexandria at the moment, thanks to the internet it is easy for me to keep up with what's going on across East Mississippi and West Alabama. Stay tuned to Newscenter 11 for the latest in breaking weather updates from Rob, and of course Chris will be keeping the blogs up to speed and I will chime in if necessary.
God Bless
Current Radar:
(Click to enlarge and hit refresh to update)
* Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the Twin States this afternoon. Some storms could briefly pulse up to severe levels at times. Stay with us for updates. Rob Hart will have the latest on Newscenter 11 on the television side and both of us here on the blog.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Severe T-Storm Warning - Pickens Co.
* The NWS Birmingham has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Pickens County in West Central Alabama until 3:30 PM. The storm is for the most part out of the WTOK viewing area... as our viewing area only covers the southern part of the county and the storm will not affect you. The storm will affect the northwestern part of the county... just east of Columbus along US 82.
Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBMX/0705122002.wuus54.htmlLabels: Severe Weather
Warning Cancelled!
The severe thunderstorm over Choctaw County has now weakened to below severe limits. However, the storm still may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
Labels: Severe Weather
Severe Thunderstorm Warning!
A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for Choctaw County, Alabama until 7:15 p.m. Here's the text:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...* UNTIL 715 PM CDT* AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS TO NEAR 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PARAGON...OR ABOUT 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUTLER...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH.* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... WATER VALLEY THROUGH 655 PM CDT... ISNEY BY 710 PM CDT...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
Labels: Severe Weather
Radar Update!
Here's the text on the storm over Choctaw County from the National Weather Service in Mobile.
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER CHOCTAW COUNTY...AT 636 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ASTRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PARAGON...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 8 MPH.THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...WIMBLY...GILBERTOWN...CHAPPELL HILL...LOU AND SOUWILPA THROUGH 715 PMCDT.THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUDTO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH COULDDOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEKSHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN ASHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOWLYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVEREDROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.
Labels: Radar Update
A Few Storms Are Developing!
Skies have been sunny through most of the day so far, but cumulus clouds are beginning to bubble up. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing down in Wayne County, mainly along and south of Hwy. 84. However, I am still forecasting activity to increase late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Even though I am only forecasting 30% coverage, where the storms to pop up they may produce locally heavy rainfall because they will be slow movers. Stay tuned for more updates.
Labels: Radar Update
Quick Update!
Radar is showing most of the area drying out; however, a couple of isolated showers and thunderstorms are continuing across some of the area. One small shower has popped up just to the east of Meridian, and another small cell has popped up in eastern Winston County. The activity will continue to diminish as we get later into the night, but don't be surprised if you ear a few rumbles of thunder over the next couple of hours. We will get the scattered showers and thunderstorms going again on Friday especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Have a good night!
God Bless
Labels: Radar Update
Radar Update!
We have seen a few showers and thunderstorms build across the area late this afternoon and evening; however, this activity should begin to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An outflow boundary has pushed off from the storms to our north, and as this boundary moved into eastern Mississippi a few showers and thunderstorms have developed. Think of an outflow boundary as a mini-front. I was out on my lunch (supper) break when the outflow came through Meridian, and even though it did not produce any rain we did get a nice cooling breeze. In our viewing area, the heaviest rainfall has occurred in Winston County around Louisville and points north. Radar estimates are showing between 1-2 inches have fallen across central Winston County. Other spotty showers and thunderstorms produced some heavy downpours around Quitman late this evening. We should see more scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday and into Saturday as well.
Labels: Radar Update
What is a subtropical storm?
The official start of hurricane season is June 1; however, our first named storm of the season did not feel like waiting until June. The low pressure that has been spinning off the coast of Georgia was named Subtropical Storm Andrea earlier today. As of the 8:00 p.m. E.S.T. advisory, Andrea was barely moving and remained very disorganized. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 miles per hour, and motion to the west or southwest is expected over the next 24 hours. This system is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days, but it will continue to produce large swells and breezy conditions across parts of the South Carolina, Georgia, and northeast Florida coastlines. If this system remains together long enough it would most likely make landfall along the northeast Florida coast; however, storm impacts should be very minimum. Now some folks are thinking just because we have a storm forming this early in the season that it is going to be a bad hurricane season; however, that is not the case so don't give in to the propaganda. On the other hand, with La Nina phasing back in we may see an active season, and hurricane experts are forecasting this season to be above normal as far as tropical cyclone formation goes. Of course you can count on Newscenter 11 to keep you ahead of the 2007 hurricane season.
Now what is a subtropical storm? Here's a good explanation from the National Hurricane Center. A subtropical cyclone is a non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.The most common type is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the
center. In comparison to
tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 100 miles. These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core.
I hope this helps in your understanding of a subtropical system.
God Bless
Labels: Tropical Weather
2007 Hurricane Season Starts Early:
...EARLY-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.COAST...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
HAS ACQUIRED SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER
BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING
POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...NORTHEAST
OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
ANDREA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A
CONTINUED SLOW MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALONG THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ANDREA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ANY LAND AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...30.8 N...79.3 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
Subtropical Storm Andrea?
* The NHC has a hurricane hunter aircraft inside the spinning low off the Carolina coast checking on things... something worth watching:
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
905 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2007
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS
MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS
ACQUIRING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE
... ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WOULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE
COASTS OF THE CAROLINAS... GEORGIA... AND NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING!
First of all, an area of low pressure off the Southeast U.S. has folks already thinking about the 2007 hurricane season. This is a non-tropical low centered about 230 miles ESE of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, and it's producing gale force winds and high seas across the Eastern Seaboard. The National Hurricane Center will send an Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft into the system tomorrow if necessary, but the forecast is for this low pressure area to weaken over the next 48 hours.
The backdoor cold front that slipped through East Mississippi and West Alabama and brought the cooler temperatures and lower humidity to the area late Sunday has now stalled across Louisiana. So back to our west they are seeing some shower and thunderstorm activity along and ahead of that boundary across Northwest and North Central Louisiana. Even further west, our next weather maker is in the form of an upper level low pressure system located right now over the southern Rockies, and this system will be on the move into Texas over the next 24-48 hours. The GFS forecasting model has this upper level low dropping down through central parts of Texas and then into the northern Gulf of Mexico; furthermore, if this scenario plays out we will see decent rain chances from Thursday through the weekend and perhaps beyond. However, if the upper level low decides to track across the Plains and stay north of our area that will mean considerable less rain chances for the Twin States. Let's hope the first scenario plays out, and we get some rain. We are around 15.54" of rain behind for the year and area lakes and rivers are really feeling the effects of this severe drought. For more information on the Greensburg, Kansas EF-5 tornado scroll down and check out Chris' blog.
God Bless
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Deadly Kansas Tornado Rated EF5:
* The National Weather Service in Dodge City, Kansas has given the deadly tornado that all but destroyed Greensburg, Kansas Friday night a rating of EF5... which produces winds of 200+ mph. This is the first EF5 on the new classification scale and the first "F5" rated storm since the Moore, Oklahoma tornado back in 1999.
Here is the link the that NWS Dodge City for the latest on the damage survey:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/As you may recall NOAA changed the tornado classification scale last year and it went in use back in February:
You can learn more information about the EF Scale but following this link the SPC:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/ef-scale.html
"The day is not over yet." This is what my Chief Meteorologist in Alexandria likes to say when it comes to receiving rainfall. So as we continue to try and get that 40% coverage, I do see a few showers and thunderstorms mainly just to the north of our viewing area. Like yesterday, any storms that get going may briefly become severe with hail and wind being the main threats not to mention heavy downpours. I understand there have already been a couple of warnings across North Mississippi and North Alabama. Even though I am working in Alexandria at the moment, thanks to the internet it is easy for me to keep up with what's going on across East Mississippi and West Alabama. Stay tuned to Newscenter 11 for the latest in breaking weather updates from Rob, and of course Chris will be keeping the blogs up to speed and I will chime in if necessary. 
