Saturday Ramblings
Hello everyone!
Boy it sure has been a beautiful weekend. We don't have a lot to talk about in the weather department, and for me, that's a good thing. Lots of things to do coming up in preparation for graduation from Mississippi State in about three weeks.
*Looks like the main storm track is well to our north, and should stay that way for the next few days as a ridge of high pressure starts to build in. This will mean just a few clouds and seasonable temperatures for the next few days.
*Moisture may return by Wednesday as a disturbance will start to bump in to the weakening ridge of high pressure. I think most rain chances stay west of here and may hold off until Thursday or Friday. In any case, at this time it doesn't look like a big rain event. Only scattered showers or thunderstorms.
*Tomorrow I'll try to post a fun article or something of interest since the weather is pretty calm. I'm sure that during the dog days of summer we will have plenty of time to post interesting articles and stuff (if we aren't dodging hurricanes!)
Derek Kinkade
Odds and Ends
* The weekend still looks great: plenty of sunshine, warm temperatures, and all the weather on television you can handle - courtesy of Derek Kinkade. I'm off to the Alabama Gulf Coast for a few days of R&R; I'll get to visit with two of my favorite people: my grandparents. I've been really blessed to know some wonderful people, and both of them are towards the top of the list. It will also be nice to visit with my Aunt Pam and Uncle Phil - also great people. Throw in my girlfriend Tara, some good seafood, and plenty of sunshine...And things are certainly looking nice this weekend! Try to spend some time with your family this weekend.
* We seem to be in the midst of a pattern change. The storm track will begin shifting north with time, and it'll be summer before we know it. That does not mean our severe weather season is over; it simply appears that it will be taking at least a break before we get into the summer pattern. Our next chance of rain comes towards the middle of next week. That system will probably stay too far north to give us much trouble in the severe weather department. We'll watch it...
* Interesting story this morning from WFTV in Florida. Apparently TORNADOES can sometimes help out law enforcement:
http://www.wftv.com/news/4376620/detail.htmlWhat a strange world we live in...
Pesky Upper Low
* Our cloud forecast has really been tough the last few days. I called for mostly cloudy skies today, but much of the day ended up being sunny. The clouds associated with the cold core low hung further north than I expected.
* I would imagine we'll see a mixture of clouds and sun tomorrow (Thursday). Odds are it will generally be more sun than clouds. But, these upper cold-core lows often throw kinks in our forecast, so I won't be completely surprised if we see overcast skies or full sunshine. Again, we'll go with somewhere in between.
* A dry and warm pattern will take hold for the end of the week into the weekend. Sunny skies and warm temperatures will headline our forecast through Tuesday of next week. By the middle of next week, we'll have a front move in our direction. This front will probably bring some rain with it. Until then, enjoy the pleasant weather!
Shower Possible Tomorrow
* Forgive me for not posting earlier today...I had been so accustomed to posting four or five times a day for severe weather; with no severe weather going on, I didn't even consider posting.
* Might see a shower or storm tomorrow as the cold core low moves overhead. Any storms that do form might have some small hail, but we do not anticipate a big deal.
* Three cheers for a pattern change! It looks like the "severe weather every 3 days" pattern will soon be a thing of the past. A ridge will build in by late this week, setting us up for a great weekend. And those of us in the weather and news business will resume somewhat normal sleeping patterns. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see another severe weather episode or two before summer begins.
* Speaking of the weekend, I'm very excited! I am taking off for the beach and some much needed rest and relaxation. I'll spend some time with my grandparents, who are heading to Gulf Shores. They are fantastic people, it will be really nice to spend some time with them. Plus, Papaw knows all the best local seafood restaurants! Get out and spend some quality time with your family this weekend!
Severe Threat Diminishing
* A line of showers and storms continues to push eastward into Alabama. It really seems like the lack of instability kept severe weather at bay for much of the Deep South.
* Tragic news from Jackson - a man was killed on Maple Street in northwest Jackson this evening. Apparently a limb brought down a power line and the man was electrocuted. Details are still emerging.
* Another plus is that the flooding threat isn't as severe as what we anticipated. We do expect the Pearl River to go above flood stage tonight, as well as the Chickasawhay River. But, we are not expecting widespread flooding. The threat will be confined to very near local river banks.
* A few clouds and spotty showers might linger tomorrow, but most areas will stay dry. The good news is that a pattern shift is on the way. We will finally see a break from the stormy weather for a while!
Afternoon Musings...
* I see that the SPC has downgraded to a "Moderate" risk for much of western and central Mississippi. This seems to be a smart move; the thunderstorms over Louisiana are evolving into a squall line. While we still expect a very stormy evening, the tornado threat here seems to be small. The more significant severe weather threat will be from damaging thunderstorm winds and large hail. We'll also have to watch closely for flooding. The bottom line is that while the threat is decreasing, we CANNOT let our guard down yet. These things can often offer some surprises. We'll be on the watch tower until the danger passes - be sure to check back here for frequent updates. Also check out Newscenter 11 Live at Five in about an hour and a half.
* Here's the new Day 1 Outlook:
SPC 20z Day 1 Outlook* Back to preparing the graphics for the news tonight!
Severe Weather Update
* The SPC has upgraded to a HIGH risk for parts of western Mississippi. High risks are reserved for the really bad days, so they are anticipating an outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes out there. Here's the outlook:
SPC Day 1 Outlook* While we will definitely see some severe thunderstorms, I really believe the highest threat of tornadoes will be west of most of our viewing area - mainly along and west of Highway 35.
* The thing preventing us from seeing a major outbreak is the dry and stable air moving in from Alabama. Dewpoints in central Alabama are in the 40's and 50's, which is too dry to support tornadic supercells. This air will move west through the day. Exactly how far west it moves will be critical in determining the magnitude of the severe weather threat here.
* Timing: I think we'll see the event get underway in our area between 4-8 pm, lasting until 1-2 am. These times are not exact, so be on your toes throughout the remainder of the day and into the overnight hours. Today is a great day to know you and your family will hear warnings because you have a NOAA weather radio!
* Threats: A few isolated tornadoes, mainly west. Also some large hail...But I believe damaging straight-line winds will be a big factor today as well.
* Heading to work...
Severe Weather on Monday...
As I enjoy the Sunday night lineup on ABC, some in Colorado are 'enjoying' a blizzard! Earlier today, visibility was very low with blowing snow and cold temperatures. All of this extreme weather is part of the storm system that will be affecting our weather tomorrow...
Not much has changed in our thinking since Josh posted last. It still appears severe weather will start to affect our area sometime around the noon-time hour and last through the overnight hours. While large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be a threat, heavy rain and flash flooding will be likely as storms could 'train' over the same area. The lakes, rivers, and ground are already very saturated from recent rains.
New model data is rolling in as I post. I know Josh will be back later on tonight with a more detailed look at things. At this point, it doesn't look like a 'classic' severe weather set up by any means, but there are several factors that are there that look very impressive, such as a negatively tilted trough, strong low-level jet, etc. I'm running a little short on time, so I will make this brief, however I urge everyone tomorrow to stay close to a source of weather information, and stay tuned here to WTOK and keep a check on the 'blog for more updates throughout the day and night if necessary.
Severe Weather Tomorrow
* Enjoying a day off in Mobile, Alabama...But, we need to talk some more about the threat of severe weather tomorrow.
* SPC has a large part of Mississippi in a Moderate risk for severe weather. The risk runs roughly along and west of Highway 15:
SPC Day 2 Outlook. Hail, wind, and some tornadoes are possible in this area. As the storms move east, they will begin to weaken as they approach the Alabama state line. This is because of a decrease in moisture and instability (cool, dry air will be "wedging" in from the east).
* Starting to get more concerned about the possibility that the models are underforecasting low level moisture. We will really have to be on our toes tomorrow, especially if we get dewpoints up in the middle 60's. As far as timing, I would anticipate the bad weather to begin in our area sometime between 11AM-2PM, lasting until around midnight Monday night.
* This event is similar in many respects to the event Wednesday (April 6). So, make sure that you review your tornado safety plan NOW! If you don't have a weather radio, now is the time to purchase one. Scroll down for several online places you can purchase a NOAA Weather Radio!
SPC Update
Here's the new Day 2 Outlook:
SPC Day 2The SPC indicates that there could be a tornado threat across parts of Mississippi, especially northwest of here. That seems to jive well with our going forecast.
I think our prime concern will be winds and hail, but an isolated tornado or two can certainly not be counted out.
It should be noted that the main thing preventing a more significant event is the lack of much low-level moisture and instabiliity. If the models are dramatically wrong about the amount of low-level moisture, we will be under the gun.
For now, we'll stick with the idea that our biggest worry will be the squall line. Bottom line: check back here a lot between now and Monday afternoon!
Early Morning Update
* Finished up with the Southeast Coastal and Atmospheric Processes Symposium today...Very interesting stuff. The highlight of the day was hearing from tropical weather guru Dr. Keith Blackwell. Dr. Blackwell talked about precipitation cores descending to the surface in open-eye tropical systems. These descending cores can bring small areas of very strong winds to the surface. The research is preliminary, but definitely shows promise. Also promising was a presentation by Patrick Gatlain from the NWS in Huntsville, Alabama. He is researching how jumps in lightning strikes can indicate the formative stages of a tornado. Again, still preliminary - but shows promise.
* Quick forecast update...I've been in the conference for the better part of the last two days, but will try to post a quick and dirty analysis of the severe weather threat. Here goes:
As best as I can see, things seem just slightly out of phase for a major severe weather outbreak in our neck of the woods. CAPE values remain low, but I get the idea that the models are understimating those. The best upper level dynamics are just north of us, but close enough to still cause concern.
I believe we'll see a few isolated storms try to develop late Monday afternoon. The "cap" will be rather strong; breaking this cap will be a difficult process. But, if we can get some sun, we should be able to do it. Any of these storms ahead of the line could be severe, with hail, wind, and isolated tornadoes all possible.
Then, a squall line sweeps through Monday night into early Tuesday morning. These storms will pack a punch, damaging wind and large hail will be the main threat, but a tornado or two within the line is not out of the question.
Will be interested to see the new Day 2 Outlook from the SPC...For now, time for me to get some rest.
