Saturday, January 27, 2007

Temps Turning Much Colder

* Return flow of moisture ahead of the approaching cold front is causing widespread showers across the area. Mainly we are just seeing light-moderate rainfall with only a few places seeing a short downpour. So far, we have officially picked up 0.13" of rain over at the airport. Rain showers will continue throughout the rest of the evening and should be coming to an end by daybreak.

*As far as wintry precip goes........it seems there may be a little residual moisture in the area through tomorrow morning as very cold air moves southeastward. In turn, we may be able to squeeze out a few snowflakes in the early morning hours. However, the chance is very slim and because absolutely zero accumulation is expected I will not mention it in the forecast.

*Behind this front will emerge a very cold arctic airmass originating straight out of Canada. High temperatures tomorrow will be quite startling if you step outside improperly dressed! We are looking at highs struggling to get into the lower 40's and don't forget the wind! Gusty winds of 15-20mph behind the front will allow for wind chills to be in the lower 30's throughout the afternoon. By tomorrow evening the winds should die down and high pressure will set in over our area. Clear skies and calm winds will allow for lows Sunday night into Monday morning to get down into the lower 20's.

*Over the next seven days we will have to keep our eye on the chance for wintry precip by the end of the week. Overnight lows should be well below freezing, but the question will be whether or not there will be enough moisture in the upper levels to allow for crystal formation. It's way too far out to say anything for certain, so just keep checking the blog as we get closer to time!

Friday, January 26, 2007

Changes Coming...

* A great deal of change and uncertainty remains in our forecast for the next four to seven days...

* Rain is likely tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night...The rain will be fairly light and spotty, and temperatures will be warm enough to support only rain tomorrow night.

* Cold weather returns Sunday, and there could be a flurry or two Sunday afternoon, primarily along and north of the Mississippi Highway 14 corridor.

* The period from Tuesday afternoon until the weekend will be very tough to forecast. The flow aloft is southwesterly, which will bring some moisture into the South. There will be a plentiful supply of Arctic air, and the interaction between the cold air and the moisture will be something we have to watch. There could be tiny ripples of energy in that southwesterly flow aloft, and finding and timing those individual ripples will be close to impossible more than 12 to 24 hours in advance.

* Be sure to check the blog over the weekend for more thoughts!

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Thursday, January 25, 2007

Interesting Times Ahead

* A lot of weather to cover and not much time to do so, so let's get right to it...

* Friday: Looks dry and a bit warmer - most places in the 50's, with plenty of sun.

* Weekend: A system will move along the Gulf coast, bringing a cold rain to most of our area Saturday night. Some light snow could mix in with the rain in places like Tupelo, Corinth, and Huntsville, but even there, I don't expect any big issues out of this system.

* Sunday/Monday: Cold and dry - highs both days will do well to reach the 40 degree mark, with a stout northerly wind. Brrrrr.

* Tuesday Night/Wednesday: The last two runs of the GFS computer model bring a surface low along the Gulf coast, with an Arctic high across Missouri. While the model itself limits the northward extent of moisture, I believe there is the potential for a strip of 1-2" of snow across the U.S. Highway 82 corridor, and I can't rule out a few flurries as far south as I-20. This system is just now showing up on computer model guidance, so this part of the forecast is highly subject to change.

* Thursday Night: Another surface low will track along the Gulf coast, with cold air in place. It's a bit too far out to really speculate on any accumulations or locations that might see snow with this system, but it does have the POTENTIAL to bring wintry weather to parts of the South. At this point, I would speculate that the greatest chance of that would be along a line from Batesville to Corinth to Chattanooga, TN. We'll keep working on the forecast...Much colder air arrives as we close out next week and get into the weekend...

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Status Quo...

* Our tough and fast-paced weather pattern continues through the next couple of weeks. The combination of ample cold air hanging around north America and an active subtropical jet will make for interesting forecasting through the next seven days. Let's break it down:

* Rest of Work Week: Thursday and Friday look cold. Highs in most places will reach the upper 40's to near 50 degrees, with plenty of clouds.

* Weekend: Not much change in the thinking for the weekend - we have revised Sunday's temperature forecast down a good bit. And, I suppose we should mention the chance of a few snow flurries mixing in with the rain across northern Mississippi and northern Alabama on Saturday night. No travel issues are expected; temperatures should remain well above freezing.

* Next Week: This is when the real fun begins. There are indications that parts of the South could see a threat (or multiple threats) of winter weather next week. The first chance will come around the middle of next week, with other chances coming along after that. It could be along I-40, it could be around here, it's just too early to pinpoint any threat. But, the pattern is favorable for SOME part of the South to get some wintry weather in the next one to two weeks.

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Tricky Forecasting Ahead...

* I should say up front that this forecast is one of the tougher ones I can remember, and is fraught with peril and uncertainty. So, understand that we make have to amend this forecast on the fly; all of it is subject to change. Without further delay, let's talk about it:

* Rain Chances? The howling subtropical jet will continue to pump moisture in the middle and upper levels today, but the lowest levels should stay relatively dry. This should keep rain chances on the low end, but we can't rule out a few isolated showers tonight and tomorrow. Many places will stay dry.

* Temps This Week: Readings each afternoon this week will remain a bit below normal, but we don't anticipate anything drastically cold. Afternoon highs will be around 50, with morning lows in the lower 30's. The exception will come Friday morning, when we expect temperatures to get into the upper 20's.

* Weekend Forecast: Temperatures will warm slightly over the weekend, and rain chances will go up just a bit. We don't foresee a soaking rain, but a few showers are possible Saturday evening into Sunday. Highs will top out in the middle to upper 50's, with lows in the middle 30's.

* Next Week and Beyond: Things will start off on a chilly note next week, with highs in the upper 40's to near 50 degrees. But, by the second half of the week, temperatures could get colder. And, there is growing evidence that we may see a significant intrusion of very cold air as we move into the first week of February. With an active subtropical jet providing moisture, any movement of cold air into the South could result in some winter weather fun. We'll keep watching!

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