Washout
* The rain is finally starting to push out other than a few showers and patches of drizzle across the area. But what a soaker we received today! Some area rainfall totals:
Meridian 1.68"
Hattiesburg 1.75"
Jackson 2.73"
Birmingham 1.05"
Montgomery 2.55"
Sometimes It Works Out...
...And sometimes it doesn't...While our forecast for heavy rain today has been fairly good, I couldn't help but chuckle when I looked at the radar this afternoon. Note the "hole" in the large rain mass, right over Meridian and parts of our area. Go figure...
Gap in the Rain* Enjoy the break in the rain, it will soon resume. Heavy rain and flooding are still a legitimate concern - scroll down to read Renny's latest posts on that.
9:30 AM Rain Update
* Good morning! Just getting in from working the Pregame show with the guys over at 103.3 FM. Always a fun time talking sports, a little weather, and whatever else seems to come up.
* So far we've picked up 1.39" of rainfall at Key Field and that number will only grow as rain continues to fall over much of the area. Some of this rain has been heavy at times. Right now rain is affecting nearly all of our viewing area. But the strongest precipitation, and I'd imagine even a few rumbles of thunder, is falling just to our north near Kosciusko extending eastward through Eupora, Sturgis, Ackerman, and into the Starkville and Columbus areas. All of this rainfall continues to move eastward and will throughout the day.
* A few thunderstorm warnings coming out along the coast in Harrison and Hancock counties. There are a couple of bowing segments and radar signatures that would suggest some stronger winds are being transported to the surface. We are not expecting severe weather here, however flooding may be a concern. An additional 2-3" of rain on top of already saturated grounds suggest that low-lying areas and flood prone areas near rivers could experience flooding. For this reason, the National Weather Service office in Jackson has issued a Flood Watch for all of our Mississippi counties and now Flood Warnings for Leake, Neshoba, and Noxubee counties. If you experience flooding, please let us know by commenting on our blog postings or submitting to our weather watchers report. You can do that by clicking
here.* I will have an eye on radar and keep watch on things as the day goes on! Be careful if you are heading out and about today!
Rain...
* As Josh mentioned, we are watching the concerns for a substainal rainfall event and the possibility of some flooding. A check of radar around 2:30am shows a large batch of rain north of Highway 84, or essentially our entire viewing area. Moderate to Heavy rainfall is occuring within this swath of rain. With already soaked ground and an additional 2 to 3" of rain over the next day or two, flooding may be a concern along rivers and low lying areas. We'll keep an eye on radar and let us know if you see any flooding. Remember the dangers that come with flooding. The main concern is driving. If you come across a flooded road, the best option is to find another route. Water is a highly underestimated force that can wash chunks of road away. These areas are hard to indentify if submerged in water. So let's just play things safe and take it easy on the roads this weekend as flooding and hydroplaning become a possibility
* Time to catch some sleep. It's been a long day and will be doing the Pregame show on 103.3 FM at 8am...always a fun way to start the weekend! Will post throughout the day Saturday as we watch the rain event unfold. Enjoy your weekend!
Flooding Concerns...
* Sure looks like we could be setting up for a potential flooding issue across parts of our area. Heavy rain will move in later tonight, and with the ground already wet, area rivers and streams will likely flood their banks. Rainfall amounts between now and 6:00pm Sunday could very well end up in excess of 2 or 3 inches!
* Because of the heavy rain forecast for tomorrow, the Meridian Downtown Association has cancelled tomorrow's schedule of Mardi Gras events. I think that's the right call - heavy rain is no kind of weather for a parade. Here's the story regarding that, courtesy of our friends at the Meridian Star:
http://www.meridianstar.com/homepage/local_story_055170710.html?keyword=leadpicturestory* The rain will end late Saturday, and Sunday should be dry and cool - plenty of sunshine.
* Here are a few links about FLOOD SAFETY...If you live in a flood prone area, you need to prepare now for the possibility of flooding Saturday...
http://www.floodsafety.com/http://www.floodsafety.noaa.gov/* Remember, the number one threat during floods occurs when you are in your car. If you can't tell how deep the water is, simply find another route! The roadway may have washed away. Also be aware of ponding on roadways - this can lead to hydroplaning. The best way to avoid hydroplaning is to slow down and pay close attention to the road...Seems like that's the best way to avoid a lot of bad things.
Brown Snow?
* Check this article out - pretty interesting stuff about brown snow falling in the U.S.:
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/2006-02-17-dirty-snow_x.htm
This is the GFS computer model's plot of 24 hour precipitation...This rain would fall between 6:00pm Friday and 6:00pm Saturday. This suggests the distinct possibility of flooding problems along the Pearl, Noxubee, Tombigbee and Black Warrior River basins. We'll be watching this potential closely, but if you live in flood-prone areas of east Mississippi and west Alabama, be prepared for the possibility of flooding Saturday.
Busy Times...
* Beginning to wind down a bit of a long day. My travels today took me to Neshoba Central Elementary School for a visit with the 3rd graders up there. After some problems with the projector, we got things going quickly.
It was a nice visit, but I had to get back to Meridian to begin working on the forecast graphics for tonight's newscast as well as tomorrow's (Friday)
web forecast posted to the internet. After the end of the 6:00 news, I shot home and ate a quick dinner. Then, it was back to work on some auxiliary projects.
I'm presenting at next weekend's
Southeast Severe Storms Symposium in Starkville. I have two presentations; one covers tips for people starting new jobs in broadcast meteorology, the other is an in-depth examination of our coverage of Hurricane Katrina. I hope I don't put too many people to sleep, I will probably be the most unintelligent person making a presentation. I'm putting some finishing touches on these presentations, so that occupies a bit of my time. Throw in some radio work for my friends at AM 1010 WMOX, and it can make for a busy day.
* Tomorrow will be even busier. I'm judging the Science Fair over at Russell Christian Academy - that's supposed to last from around 8:15 until sometime in the afternoon. From there, it'll be time to head to WTOK for the evening shift. After the 10:00 news, I'll get in my car and drive home to visit some family and friends over the weekend in northeast Alabama - I'll probably make it home around 2:00 AM...
Just arriving...
* Just getting into the office after a great visit with the students at Neshoba Central Elementary School....I had a great time, and I hope the students did as well. You can see them tonight at 6:00pm during our newscast (right before weather).
* A quick and preliminary look at things suggests that our weekend forecast will not change much. We still expect an area of low pressure to track overhead late Friday night/early Saturday, and we'll highlight rain chances during that time period. The rain could be heavy at times, especially south of U.S. Highway 80, and there could also be a few thunderstorms. We don't anticipate any severe weather, however, due to the lack of instability.
* Off to dive into the charts...
Whoops...
* Today (and this entire week, really) is a great example of how weather has a mind of its own. There are a few arrogant people in this field - and that's something I really can't understand...Forecasting the weather is a very humbling experience. Our forecast from last night for today was for temperatures in the lower 60's. But, the stationary front lifted north, and for several hours this afternoon, we were in the 70's! In fact, our high temperature today was a balmy 76 - a miss of 13 degrees.
* The tough forecasting isn't over yet. The front remains draped across our area, and forecasting high temperatures will be a nightmare. Areas north of the front will likely stay in the lower 60's, while south of the front will see readings approaching 70! Our forecast high is 63, but this is an average...Some places will be much cooler north of the front, while south of the front will likely be in the middle 60's.
* The subtropical jet moving overhead only complicates things even more. This moisture tap will remain, and tiny ripples within the jet will be enough to kick off showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Timing these ripples is almost impossible, but for now we'll go with mostly dry weather for tomorrow and Friday, with a period of rain likely Saturday morning. But, keep in mind that this is quite subject to change.
Strong Temp Gradient...
* The front is now beginning to move back towards the south. NORTH of the front, temperatures are in the 50's and lower 60's, while temperatures SOUTH of the front are in the middle 70's...
* This report came in from one of our WTOK.com Weather Watchers, David Cole...David lives on Pine Springs Road in northern Lauderdale County...
Temperature is falling fast..
Winds shifted to North
Timeline of Temperature/Dewpoint drop:
4:40pm: Temp: 70.7 Dew Point: 60.0
4:45pm: Temp: 68.2 Dew Point: 57.6
4:50pm: Temp: 64.0 Dew Point: 54.8
4:55pm: Temp: 62.4 Dew Point: 55.0
5pm: Temp: 60.4 Dew Point: 53.7
* We need more great reports like this! If you have a thermometer and a rain gauge, you can participate in our WTOK.com Weather Watcher program. Simply click the link below:
WTOK.com Weather Watchers
Some Showers/Thunderstorms
* Radar continues to indicate a band of showers moving through parts of Noxubee, Winston, Neshoba and Kemper counties. Most of the rain is light, but there are embedded patches of heavier rain and perhaps even a rumble of thunder. The rain is pushing southeast at around 25 mph, and will affect Sumter, Lauderdale and northern Newton counties in the next hour or so. It will eventually affect Greene, Hale and Marengo counties later this evening.
Warm...Really Warm
* It would appear that our warm front has surged farther north than forecast. The current temperature in Meridian is a balmy 73 degrees! Meanwhile northern Mississippi is holding steady in the upper 40's and lower 50's. The contrast is pretty impressive - 45 in Tunica, 79 in Hattiesburg!
* Rain chances for Friday sure seem to be decreasing. The 18z NAM guidance would suggest a dry day Friday, but more rain on the way early Saturday - especially south of Interstate 20. We'll continue to pour over the latest suite of model data and current weather and see what changes we need to make to the forecast...
Headache of a Forecast
* We often talk about the difficulty of forecasting these zonal patterns. Tiny impulses embedded in the fast upper flow are enough to kick off large masses of rain and thunderstorms. The problem lies in detecting these impulses. Our upper air measurements are few and far between, and so these impulses often go undetected until the rain begins...
* This scenario lends itself to adjustments of the forecast, and it looks like that's what we'll have to do a bit...Friday now looks like it may be mostly dry, with the rain holding off until Saturday. We'll wait for one more model run this afternoon before formally amending our forecast, but that's the idea we have right now.
* Back to the here and the now: Most of the rain today has been across northern Mississippi and northern Alabama. That being said, we have seen a few clusters of rain and embedded thunderstorms develop at times across this part of the world. We'll continue the chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm for much of the afternoon and into the nighttime hours tonight.
* Off to run some errands - I'll have an update later this evening.
Rain Developing
* Rain is beginning to develop across parts of Arkansas, and these showers will continue developing and moving east. As this occurs, even more rain will fill in across Louisiana and eventually Mississippi, as warm, moist air is lifted over a cool airmass in place near the surface.
* The next few days look mostly wet. It will not rain all week, but periods of rain will be the rule rather than the exception in coming days. It will be a cold rain, as highs stay in the 50's for most of this week.
* Weekend cooldown? The latest computer model guidance seems to back off a bit on the cold air intrusion forecast for this weekend. But, we will stick to the idea of a turn to cooler weather. That being said, we will probably raise our forecast high a degree or two while things sort themselves out a bit.
* What's ISENTROPIC LIFT? Much of the rain this week is in response to what we call "isentropic lift." To find out more about this efficient rain (and sometimes snow) producer, check out the following websites, packed with great info for REAL weather fans:
NWS Glossary: Isentropic LiftMSU Instructor Jeff Haby's Website
Dense Fog This Morning...
* Dense fog has developed across much of east Mississippi and west Alabama. I noticed a fairly thick deck on Poplar Springs Drive as I came home from work. So, be sure to take it easy on area roadways this morning.
* Allow an extra 5-10 minutes to get to your destination, and be sure to leave plenty of space between your vehicle and the vehicle in front of you. The best advice is to use some good common sense and slow it down a bit out there. One more thing - if you run into a patch of dense fog, turn on your low beams. Using the high beams will only make it harder to see, believe it or not.
* INFO ON THE WEB:
National Weather Service Jackson - Dense Fog AdvisoryNational Weather Service Birmingham - Dense Fog AdvisoryFog Driving Tips - Ministry of Transportation, Ontario
A cold and cloudy night is unfolding across east Mississippi and west Alabama...
Wet Weather Ahead..
* It sure looks like we will have to include rain chances from now until the Fourth of July. Just kidding, but it sure does look wet at times...Tomorrow may be the driest day all week, as we'll be in between weak upper impulses. But, we'll still be cloudy and cold - temps only in the 50's.
* The rest of the week will feature a few periods of rain. It's hard to time these impulses, but for now we'll go with the best chances of rain coming Wednesday night and then another period of increased rain chances Friday. Keep in mind there will likely be showers around through much, if not all, of this week - these are simply the rough time periods of the GREATEST rain chances...
* The weekend will feature a return to colder weather, as an Arctic front moves through the Southeast...
Severe Weather Awareness Week
* While the buzz lately has centered around cold temperatures and light icing, the big threat to life and property around here comes in the form of severe weather. Thunderstorms and tornadoes are fairly common around these parts. In fact, we're coming up on the fortieth anniversary of the big Candlestick Park tornado of March 3, 1966. We'll talk more about that tornado in coming days...
* Today kicks off Severe Weather Awareness Week in Mississippi and Alabama. That means this is a perfect opportunity to chat about severe weather preparedness...
- This is a perfect time to check the batteries in your NOAA Weather Radio! If you or someone you know doesn't own a NOAA Weather Radio, I urge you to make a trip to any consumer electronics store and get one. For a small investment of $20-$50, you can have peace of mind that you and your family will know of approaching severe weather.
- The first part of severe weather safety is to have a way to get the warning. The second part is to have a plan. Discuss with your family what your plan of action is during a tornado warning. If you need some help with your plan, check out this site:
Tornado Safety Guidelines- Our message is to tell people to get LOW and get IN! Get as low as you can in your home and get as far inside your home as possible. The idea is to put as many walls between your safe place and the tornado as possible.
* Our local NWS offices have compiled some excellent sources of info for Severe Weather Awareness Week:
NWS BirminghamNWS Jackson
Freezing Rain Update
* The threat of any icing is beginning to wind down. The current temp in Meridian is 35, with rain falling. Golden Triangle Regional Airport, well north of here, has reached 34 degrees, so it's a safe bet that almost all of our area is above freezing. I'd still take it easy and exercise caution today - wet roads can be dangerous as well.
* The rest of the work week looks wet at times. Winds aloft will continue in a zonal, west to east pattern, with tiny impulses of energy rippling through that flow. As those impulses move overhead, they kick off a few showers. Timing these impulses is nearly impossible, so the best course of action is to carry the umbrella with you through most of this week. If we're lucky, we may see some drying by late Thursday and into Friday, but that's not written in stone just yet. The weekend will feature a return to much colder weather.
4:00 AM update
* First off I'd like to thank Josh for letting me try his famous Frank Ricard Chili recipe after the 10:00pm show. Great stuff!
* For those of you who are unaware, I live in Columbus and am finishing up my Masters degree at Mississippi State during the week, then head down to Meridian on the weekends. I headed back home later than normal after spending a few hours diving into Josh's chili. As we have mentioned, the main threat for freezing rain is north of highway 16. As I headed into Scooba along highway 45 going north, the car temperature read 32 degrees for a while before dropping to 31 around Macon. In this stretch I hit a band of moderate rain. Moderate rain with freezing temperatures is definitely a heart sinker. I drove slowly the rest of the way home and thankfully the ground was warm enough that the roads didn't freeze over. I had a safe trip back but noticed many signs and my car was frozen over when I made it home.
* The key is to know that when rain is falling with these cold temperatures, the threat is at least there for some icy conditions. Often times we refer to this as "black ice" because it looks like the color of the asphalt and is hard to distinguish. Having grown up in Nebraska where ice is common, I've experienced black ice on a few occasions -- a bit surprising and nerve racking. I was shocked and disappointed in the speeds most travelers were driving. Please slow down when you know there is the threat that there could be slick spots. A few extra minutes is worth being safe. My hour and a half drive took two hours tonight, but I am glad to be sitting in my warm apartment writing this blog at 4:00am!!
* We'll continue to watch things closely and pass along any information we receive. Time for a cat nap for me before class at 8:00am! Have a good Monday and be safe!
Monday Morning
* Light freezing rain continues across northernmost parts of our area - roughly along and north of Highway 16. Icing of roads has been a big problem across the northern part of Mississippi and Alabama tonight. Numerous accidents have been reported in Vicksburg, Greenville and many other communities. If you have early morning travel plans going north of here or west of Jackson, be sure to take it easy and drive carefully.
* The temp in Meridian is 36 as I write this, but I would imagine there could be a few pockets of freezing temperatures in low-lying rural areas. So, for the sake of caution, please watch for icy spots on bridges and overpasses across all of our area. Most, if not all, roadways will be only wet south of Hwy 16, but let's err on the side of caution as we drive to work later this morning.
* A mesonet station in Neshoba reported a temperature of 30 degrees just after 1am, so that validates the threat of light ice accumulations along and north of Highway 16. So, if you live in Philadelphia, Noxapater, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Crawford or any other community north of Hwy 16, please watch for slick spots this morning. This includes Noxubee, Winston, northern Kemper and northern Neshoba counties.
* Time for a quick nap...We'll be keeping a watch on things, and Charles Daniel will be in at 6:00 am with the latest weather and road info on Good Morning Meridian.
Winter Weather Advisory...
* The National Weather Service has extended their Winter Weather Advisory to include Noxubee and Winston counties...This agrees with our forecast for light icing along and north of Highway 16...Be sure to exercise extreme caution on area roadways early tomorrow morning. By late morning, temps will warm above freezing, and we'll see only a cold rain at times tomorrow....
* We'll be up tonight watching the weather, and will update this space as needed...
10:10 PM Update
* It is cold tonight, temperatures are holding steady in the 30's...I have 35 at my home in north Meridian, and 36 is the current temperature at Meridian's Key Field. Light drizzle is falling across much of the Deep South.
* The big question is will the temperature reach freezing with precipitation still falling. At this point, we don't think that will happen along the I-20 corridor...There could be some patchy slick spots along and north of Highway 16, but the threat of travel trouble is very low. The bottom line is to exercise caution if you're going to be out early tomorrow morning, especially when you're on bridges and overpasses...
* I hope you've had an excellent weekend!
Sunday Evening
* Good evening! We escaped any frozen precipitation last night and I suspect most of us will tonight as well. However, there is the chance for very light freezing drizzle, especially areas north of I-20. We do think some precipitation will form (and is forming west of Jackson), but this precipitation will likely be very light in nature. The other question at hand is temperatures. Right now, our thinking is that Meridian's low will likely get down to 33, one degree above freezing. But we'll be realistic in the fact that temperatures can fluctuate a degree or two. If it does drop below freezing as light drizzle falls, it will freeze upon contact with the ground. The main places that would become slick are bridges and overpasses. The further north you go, especially along the highway 82 corridor (Golden Triangle west to Winona), would have a better chance of some freezing rain. If you have travel plans north, be aware of that threat. So here is our official thought as of 6:00 pm:
Some drizzle will form across the area. Along highway 82, a solid glaze of ice is possible. Our guess at the 32 degree line will be along highway 16, or a line from Dekalb westward to Philadelphia and Carthage. So between highway 16 and highway 82 we think a few patchy areas of ice will be possible. South of that line, we think the temperature will stay above freezing. However, it will be a close call so we urge all to pay close attention to roads, especially on bridges and overpasses.
* Another update to come later this evening...
