Code Red Reverse 911 System
We featured an interesting story last night on the news at 10:00. The City of Meridian and Lauderdale County are considering purchasing and implementing a "Reverse 911" system.
The system works like this: In the event of an impending disaster in a certain part of the county, the computer software can send out 1,000 phone calls per minute to only the affected area. Click the link below to read more:
Reverse 911 StoryThe system costs $15,000, and the city and county plan to split the bill. The system is designed to be used for missing children, chemical spills, severe weather and other disasters that require timely widespread notification.
I think its an exciting technology, but I have some apprehension about its use for severe weather. We would have to make sure that the operator of the system notified only those in the direct path of the tornado. And, I believe it would probably be best to reserve using the system for the most extreme situations.
For example, if a tornado has been sighted roaring towards a populated area, we definitely need to activate the system. But, I don't think the system should be used for every tornado warning.
The warning system works like this: The National Weather Service over in Jackson issues the tornado warning. Then, they communicate this warning to emergency management, media, and the public via NOAA weather radio.
Obviously, there are some tornado warnings for storms that do not produce tornadoes. Weather radar is simply not yet capable of determining for sure if a storm is producing a tornado.
I believe that if we use this system too much, we would do so at risk of "crying wolf." Many people already accuse us of doing this. The best course of action in my opinion is to use this system only for confirmed tornadoes.
Would this cause the phone system to miss a tornado or two? Yes, and I have a hard time accepting that. Because when the system was NOT activated and a tornado hurt or killed someone, the inevitable question would be: "Why wasn't the system activated?" It would be mighty difficult to answer that question.
But, I believe that if we implement this system for every tornado warning, people will begin to ignore these phone calls. Its not a stretch to envision people leaving the phone off the hook during severe weather episodes to avoid being awakened.
NOAA Weather Radio already alerts people for EVERY tornado warning. I believe that the Code Red Reverse 911 System could allow us to build a different "tier" of tornado warning, reserved only for long-track, life-threatening confirmed tornadoes - the worst of the worst.
Please don't misunderstand - I think the Code Red system is great for notification for disasters. I'm FOR this system. I think its potential as a life-saving device is excellent. But, again, I just have some apprehension about how people will react to it.
The BEST way to stay alert to severe weather warnings is a NOAA Weather Radio, because they will alert you to every warning. I prefer this method to Code Red, simply because it allows people the choice of receiving warnings.
There is no "right" or "wrong" on this topic. It is a very touchy subject, simply because lives are at stake. But open discussion such as this can only help the process.
Feel free to leave a "Comment" below on this topic!
Rain Coming, Interesting Times Ahead
Forecast Notes:
* Model guidance continues to slow down the timing of the rain this weekend. It looks more and more like we'll get through all of Saturday and part of Sunday before the rain arrives.
* The beginning of next week looks wet. The worst of the rain will be Sunday night and into the day on Monday. Today's 18z run of the GFS model spits out over 1" of rain in a bullseye from Meridian to Tuscaloosa. I don't believe that we'll see quite that much, but the GFS thinks so.
* Our pattern right now is a southwesterly flow aloft. Individual shortwaves within this flow will kick off showers as they move overhead. Timing these shortwaves is impossible, the best we can do is to anticipate periods of rain.
* We'll begin to slowly dry out by late next week as a front finally pushes through the Southeast.
* INTERESTING possibilities for the end of the month. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is forecast to go sharply negative. This often leads to a deep trough in the east and some very cold air in our neck of the woods. Here's the NAO:
North Atlantic Oscillation ForecastDuring the same time, the GFS model has been insisting on trying to develop a storm in the Gulf of Mexico, which can be a favorable setup for snow in the South. But, the model is TOO FAR OUT to have any reliability at this point. So, keep in mind this is NOT a forecast, just some food for thought...
More tomorrow...
More on Computer Models
There are 3 major U.S. computer models. Each uses a different set of complex equations to analyze and forecast weather. Here's a breakdown of each U.S. model:
GFS -- Global Forecast System - This is the primary mid to long-range American model. It goes out 16 days (384 hours). It's primary strength is that it goes out so far. The main weakness however, is that the model solutions beyond about 7-8 days are not very reliable.
NAM -- North American Mesoscale - This is the primary short to mid-range American model. It goes out 3.5 days (84 hours). It runs on a higher resolution, which means it incorporates more data than the GFS. Therefore, in theory, it is more accurate in the short term than the GFS.
NGM -- Nested Grid Model - This is an older American model. It uses old equations. Its primary purpose is to serve as a comparison for the other model.
There are more American models, each serving a different purpose:
MM5 -- Short term model, uses the highest resolution. Generally considered to be very accurate. It doesn't go out as far into the future as the GFS or ETA.
NOGAPS -- This is the Navy's special weather forecast model.
Also, there are a variety of models used to forecast tropicsl systems. I'll write a blog entry on those as we get closer to hurricane season.
In addition to the American models, we use several models of international origin. We use the UKMET (United Kingdom), the ECMWF (European model), and the Canadian weather model, among others.
So, as you can see, we must often wade through a LOT of data to make our forecast.
I'll post again tonight with an update on the weekend/early week rain for next week....AND I'll talk about some very interesting possibilities for the rest of the month!
Computer Models
A question we often hear is "how do you forecast weather?" Well, a lot goes into it. But, a big piece of the puzzle is the use of computer model guidance.
Each day, supercomputers at NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction -- a government entity responsible for these computer models) take in a myriad of weather data.
Surface observations, upper air data, ocean buoy reports, you name it. Then, using this data, they run a simulation of the atmosphere.
This simulation is done four times per day, so we have four different "runs" of data to look at each day. These runs are done at 12z, 18z, 0z, and 6z ("Z" time, or Greenwich Mean Time -- check out
http://www.dxing.com/utcgmt.htm for a great primer on Z time).
Each run shows us the model's idea of the atmosphere at different levels in the atmosphere. We view all of the computer model guidance at the website below. Check them out for yourself and try your hand at forecasting!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/If you have any questions, please leave a comment below with your question, name and e-mail address and I'll answer your question.
What is a Blog?
Technology is really amazing stuff. With the increased presence of the internet, there are all kinds of new and exciting ways to get more information out to people.
The basic idea is to use the internet to keep an online "log" or journal. Except, because its on the world wide WEB, we call it a WEBLOG. Someone got the bright idea to shorten it to "Blog." So that's where we stand today.
By putting our thoughts in a format where we can update them at our convenience, we won't have to work under any deadline or format restrictions. We can post on any topic at any time! The end result for you will be better and more interesting weather content, even on days when the weather isn't very active.
We will keep an archive of blog entries. So, if you miss a post, you can go back and check up to see what we were thinking on that particular day.
I hope you enjoy the Newscenter 11 Weather Blog. Feel free to click "Comments" below and let me know what YOU think!
