Rain Coming, Interesting Times Ahead
Forecast Notes:* Model guidance continues to slow down the timing of the rain this weekend. It looks more and more like we'll get through all of Saturday and part of Sunday before the rain arrives.
* The beginning of next week looks wet. The worst of the rain will be Sunday night and into the day on Monday. Today's 18z run of the GFS model spits out over 1" of rain in a bullseye from Meridian to Tuscaloosa. I don't believe that we'll see quite that much, but the GFS thinks so.
* Our pattern right now is a southwesterly flow aloft. Individual shortwaves within this flow will kick off showers as they move overhead. Timing these shortwaves is impossible, the best we can do is to anticipate periods of rain.
* We'll begin to slowly dry out by late next week as a front finally pushes through the Southeast.
* INTERESTING possibilities for the end of the month. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is forecast to go sharply negative. This often leads to a deep trough in the east and some very cold air in our neck of the woods. Here's the NAO:
North Atlantic Oscillation Forecast
During the same time, the GFS model has been insisting on trying to develop a storm in the Gulf of Mexico, which can be a favorable setup for snow in the South. But, the model is TOO FAR OUT to have any reliability at this point. So, keep in mind this is NOT a forecast, just some food for thought...
More tomorrow...
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 8:56 PM
2 Comments:
It seems that the North Atlantic Oscillation is great for advance notice in coming changes to our weather. BUT that and long range GFS model only suggest possibilites. Snow predictions will spead like wild fire and most often, never happens this far south.
Keep up the Blog
Hey...
Definitely NOT a snow forecast!!! BUT, like you say, there are some interesting possibilities out there.
Thanks so much for taking time to visit!
The BLOG is really a great way to discuss our ideas, I'll do my best to make it interesting!
Post a Comment
<< Home