Twin States Weather Blog

Computer Models

A question we often hear is "how do you forecast weather?" Well, a lot goes into it. But, a big piece of the puzzle is the use of computer model guidance.

Each day, supercomputers at NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction -- a government entity responsible for these computer models) take in a myriad of weather data.

Surface observations, upper air data, ocean buoy reports, you name it. Then, using this data, they run a simulation of the atmosphere.

This simulation is done four times per day, so we have four different "runs" of data to look at each day. These runs are done at 12z, 18z, 0z, and 6z ("Z" time, or Greenwich Mean Time -- check out http://www.dxing.com/utcgmt.htm for a great primer on Z time).

Each run shows us the model's idea of the atmosphere at different levels in the atmosphere. We view all of the computer model guidance at the website below. Check them out for yourself and try your hand at forecasting!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

If you have any questions, please leave a comment below with your question, name and e-mail address and I'll answer your question.

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 12:36 PM