Tropics Heating Up...
* Satellite images really make me believe that there is a tropical depression in the works for the southern Gulf of Mexico. The cluster of storms is currently in the Caribbean Sea, but will continue to move west, eventually ending up in the southern Gulf. The system seems to be getting better organized.
* The National Hurricane Center will be sending a hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate this system tomorrow. Once we get their data, we'll have a much better idea of what this system will do.
* INTERESTING model output from the MM5 model from Florida State University. This panel is valid 7 AM Wednesday morning, and shows a well developed tropical system making landfall along the Alabama Gulf Coast. This solution is certainly not out of the question:
FSU MM5 Model Valid 7 AM Wednesday* Never a dull moment!
7:15 PM
* Severe thunderstorm warnings have been posted for Clarke and Washington counties in southwest Alabama. The main area of concern will be along and south of US Highway 84, in areas like Jackson, Grove Hill, Whatley, and Walker Springs. The main threats will be frequent lightning and perhaps some gusty winds and small hail. Stay indoors and off of wireless telephones.
* Another line of storms continues to push southward through central Mississippi. These storms prompted a Severe Thunderstorm Warning earlier for Noxubee and Winston counties, but that warning has expired. Heavy rain and frequent lightning can be expected along the Highway 16 corridor in the next hour or so. These should diminish within a few hours of sunset.
6:20 PM
* More severe thunderstorm warnings - the latest are for Noxubee and Winston Counties...The worst of the weather right now is between Boon and Mashulaville along Mississippi Highway 14. Some gusty winds and small hail are possible, but frequent lightning will also be a dangerous characteristic of this storm...
* These storms are part of a cluster running along Highway 14 back towards I-55. These storms are sinking south and should diminish a few hours after sunset. I doubt they will make it as far south as I-20, but we'll be watching things...
Damage Reports...
* NWS Birmingham reports trees down along Alabama Highway 28, just southeast of Livingston. We will pass along more reports as they become available...
Severe Weather Update
* Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue for Sumter and Marengo counties. The main threat will be large hail and damaging winds. Frequent lightning will also be a problem, so if you live in southern Sumter County or Marengo County, simply stay indoors until this storm is over.
Stay away from windows and stay off of wired telephones.
* Watch Newscenter 11's Live at Five for a complete weather update in just a few minutes!
Severe Weather Update
* A Severe Thunderstorm Warning continues for Sumter County until 5pm. The main threat with this storm will be frequent lightning and large hail. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw golfball or larger size hail out of this storm. We have already received a report of hail from Epes (golfball sized).
* This storm will continue sinking south and will build westward towards the state line. I think this will miss Meridian, so the mayoral inauguration should stay dry - but it will be close. Eastern parts of Lauderdale and Kemper counties will catch part of this storm, so if you live in places like Porterville, Lauderdale, Kewanee and other areas near the state line, keep an eye to the sky - even though you aren't under a formal severe thunderstorm warning.
* Watching it closely...
Potential for Tropical Trouble...
* Watching the Caribbean Sea with great interest this evening. A cluster of thunderstorms, sometimes called a "tropical wave", continues over the southern Caribbean. This cluster of thunderstorms will gradually move into an area where upper level winds are favorable for some tropical development. It's too early to get concerned, but the overall pattern is a worrisome one for the Gulf Coast.
* Here's a portion of the latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center:
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
* We'll be watching it closely...
Bret Moves Inland...
* Tropical Storm Bret moved inland late last night along the central Mexican coastline. Bret will continue to weaken and move to the west-northwest, and will not have an impact on our weather. We will continue to closely monitor the tropics over the next few days, it seems like we may be about to enter an upswing in tropical activity.
* This is my 17th consecutive day with no day off. Derek Kinkade left us a few weeks ago to accept a full-time position in Macon, Georgia. He's doing very well and enjoying his new position. We are close to getting a new weekend meteorologist on television; I will certainly enjoy a break from the grind. Don't get me wrong, I love what I do. But, everyone needs some time to take a break and relax.
* Our summer interns have been working hard on the chromakey wall over the last few weeks. They are doing an excellent job! We have been fortunate to have a very talented group of interns this summer - I feel sure that all 3 of our interns will have very bright careers in broadcast meteorology.
Radar Saving Lives...
A new study confirms that Doppler Radar is saving lives! Check out the article:
Doppler Radar Saves LivesAlso - Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for Leake and Neshoba counties earlier. That warning expired at 5:15 PM, and the main threats were wind and very frequent lightning.
Lightning is very deadly, killing many people each year. If you are close enough to hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Play it safe; stay inside!
Skin Cancer Prevention...
I received a note from the Skin Cancer Foundation and thought I'd pass along these suggestions:
If your holiday plans include the beach or the pool, The Skin Cancer Foundation wants to remind you of these sun safety tips:
- Apply an ounce of sunscreen with an SPF 15 or higher over the entire surface of your body
- Reapply sunscreen every 90 minutes or after getting wet
- Cover up with protective clothing including a wide brimmed hat, a beach cover-up and UV-blocking sunglasses
- And, seek the shade whenever possible
For more information, visit
www.skincancer.org* Enhanced chance of rain for the next day or two due to a pesky upper level trough over the Southeast. Rain chances will begin to diminish by Thursday as the upper trough washes out. The late week period into the weekend looks to be dry and slightly hotter than what we've seen the past few days. It's shaping up to be a sunny and hot Independence Day Weekend!
