April 29th Storm Chase
We knew as early as last weekend that there could be a chance of some severe weather around this time period. As the week progressed, models were more and more impressive with the system and everything was shaping up to be a rather 'classic' severe weather outbreak with good instability and good dynamics. When we got closer to the event, models had backed off on some of the parameters, but we still knew we could be in for some severe weather, so we decided to chase!
We left MSU's campus around 3:00 and headed for the town of Cleveland in the Mississippi Delta. There we waited around at the Walmart for the cap to break to our west and storms to move across the river so we could intercept. Convection was ongoing into parts of Arkansas, but did not look that impressive. We then decided to go north a little ways to the town of Clarksdale where we thought saw some better surface heating and where the environment might be a little more conducive to severe weather.
Upon arriving we met up with more chasers from MSU and the LDCT, or Long Distance Chase Team, including some good friends: Justyn Jackson, Greg Nordstrom, Andrew Davis, Richie Hosney, Brian Baker, and too many others to list! While in Clarksdale, we also met a chaser who drove up from Florida and 2 other chasers from the University of Alabama in Hunstville. Definitely the most chasers in one spot that I've seen in Mississippi!
After a consensus told us that the storms in Arkansas would be moving into a better environment as they crossed the river, we dropped south and viewed a beautiful storm producing lots of lightning. We also believe we saw a wall cloud on this storm as well as a nice 'tail cloud'. After that, we got on what I'll call the Greenwood storm. Worried that we could not make it south to get in a safe place (away from the large hail and possible tornado) to view the storm, we jogged east first and then south, ending up in the town of Greenwood at a mobile home park where we got a good look at what was going on. We warned residents that were driving off about the impending danger (tornado warnings were in effect and sirens were activated). The storm was producing prolific lightning, including many cloud to ground flashes, 'anvil crawlers', and intracloud flashes. While we were stopped, we saw a rotating wall cloud and several funnel clouds, often a precursor to a tornado. The storm started to pick up speed, and we gave chase again.
We caught up to the storm along US HWY 82 as the storm was moving due east at this time. We got word that it had previously produced a tornado as well as significant damage in Sunflower county. As we were driving, we saw a well defined wall cloud and then a funnel. On the ground, we saw what we believe to be the tornado kicking up dust and debris. All of this we were able to see as lightning illuminated the back of the storm.
The whole time, we were contacting the National Weather Service via telephone and Instant Messenger (we had wireless internet and radar in our car.. technology is very helpful!). Our reports were then related to local television outlets, and Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel even mentioned us on air. Because it was so late, and because the storms were beginning to become more linear in nature, we decided to go back to Starkville. Storms hit us there early this morning, as well as other parts of the state, including East Mississippi and West Alabama.
All in all, a very successful night chase. We saw good lightning, some great storm structure, and even a tornado. I caution anyone, however, not to try this alone, and not to try it if you have not ever done it before. Stormchasing is dangerous, and rookie chasers that do not 'follow the rules' do more harm that good. Study hard about severe weather and get storm spotter training. The National Weather Service and local EMAs sometimes offer classes in storm spotting. Also, its a good idea to go out with someone that has gone before. There are some great storm chasing websites out there as well. Check out
Long Distance Chase Team This is the website to our friends chase team. There are many others as well. Storm chasers provide a vital service, being the eyes on the ground where radar and satellite cannot see. With the NWS, media, chasers, EMA, and law enforcement working together, lives can be saved!
Saturday Update
Whew, what a night! Later this evening I'll post about our storm chase and what we saw over in northwest part of our state. For now, we will discuss weather here in East Mississippi and West Alabama for the next few days.
* Clouds really hung tough around the area today with temperatures hovering in the low 60s with breezy conditions. It did not feel like the last day of April at all!
* I think we will see those clouds decrease tonight and it looks like it will be a nice day tomorrow with temperatures back in the low 70s, still below normal for the first of May.
* After that, things get tricky. We are in an "El Nino" type pattern with a strong southern branch of the jet stream that remains very active. Due to our computer models not understanding what is going on the Pacific Ocean very well, this southern branch can sometimes bring some surprise amounds of precipitation and very hard to forecast weather for the southeast US. Generally, this means a wetter and cooler than normal pattern, and that is what I have for us next week. It looks like we see increasing clouds Monday and Tuesday with a slight chance of a shower, with skies remaining mostly cloudy all week. Our best chance of rain will come sometime Thursday into Friday morning, though we can't rule out the chance of a shower all week as impulses rotate our way. Afternoon highs will be in the middle 70s generally, and that is about 5-8 degrees below average for us this time of year.
* This is a very low confidence and tricky forecast! Things can change dramatically over a few days. At this time, however, we aren't looking for any severe weather anytime in the next 7 days or so. Just a generally wet and cool pattern.
* I will post later about our storm chase last night. Wanted to say a big THANK YOU to Josh Johnson and everyone at WTOK for staying up late last night with all of the severe weather. I got to do the fun stuff, but I know what its like not to get any sleep over the weather. Enjoy a beautiful day tomorrow!
Warning Situation
* Here are the latest severe weather warnings:
Tornado Warning for northern Marengo County until 5:45 (next 10 minutes)
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue for Choctaw and Clarke counties in west Alabama. The main threat with these storms will be damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. It seems like a "bow echo" is forming here, so really be on the ready for some high winds if you are in the path of these storms moving through southwest Alabama.
* We can just about put this event to bed. About another half-hour and things will all be east of us. Enjoy the weekend! I need some sleep.
* Severe thunderstorm warnings continue for Lauderdale, Clarke, Jasper, and Smith counties. The Lauderdale County storm has weakened dramatically, and the warning for it will likely be cancelled soon.
* New warning just issued for Choctaw County, Alabama. That's the storm moving out of Clarke County, MS. Large hail is the main threat, and it will affect places like Lisman and Butler.
* Back edge of the severe weather threat pushing into Scott county now. We'll be out of the woods in a few hours. For now, back to the red-eye radar watch.
Early AM Update
* Tornado warnings have been issued for Pickens County, Alabama and northern Jones County, Mississippi. Both of these run until 4:15 AM.
* Severe thunderstorm warnings continue for Jasper, Smith, Clarke, and Noxubee counties. I would imagine the NWS will upgrade either southern Jasper or southern Smith to a tornado warning if the Jones county storm continues to show strong rotation.
* Back to keeping an eye on things...
New Tornado Watch Issued
* SPC has pulled the trigger on a new Tornado Watch for all of our counties in Mississippi and Alabama. Here's the watch:
Tornado Watch * The watch will be in effect until 10:00 AM CDT.
* Tornado warnings have been issued for Lawrence and Jefferson Davis counties with storms continuing to move through south-central Mississippi.
* Back to watching things...
New Watch Coming...
* A new tornado watch will be issued very soon for the rest of our Mississippi counties. I'll have details on this watch when it is issued.
* Watching those storms moving through SE Mississippi. Could become severe at any moment.
* I'm watching it closely...
Update
* The storms are still continuing to move eastward. The southern end of the line is beginning to slow down a bit, but should begin to accelerate in our direction in the next hour or two.
* Watching closely cells trying to develop across southern Mississippi and Louisiana. The SPC has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for this area, roughly along and south of a line from Meridian to McComb. They mention they will likely issue a tornado watch. This would put all of our Mississippi counties under a tornado watch.
* We're still waiting on the cells over western Mississippi to form into a line. Right now, they aren't showing any signs of becoming linear just yet. The new development across southern Mississippi is particularly concerning, as it will likely be supercellular in nature, and more likely to produce tornadoes.
* We'll be watching it closely...Will update again soon.
Evening Update
* Tornado watch for areas along and north of a line from De Kalb to McComb. Here's the watch:
Tornado Watch* Our own Derek Kinkade intercepted a tornado with our friends from LDCT and NOMISSIT from Mississippi State University. They saw the tornado out in the Mississippi Delta. I'm hoping he'll show some of his video on the news this weekend.
* Severe weather threat continues, especially along and north of I-20. I still believe the storms will begin to evolve into a squall line near the I-55 corridor, and the threat will shift from tornadoes to damaging winds and hail. But, these things can offer up surprises, so we'll just have to keep an eye on the radar. Going to be a long night...
* Will try my best to post frequent updates...
Watching and Waiting...
* Tornado Watch has been issued for roughly the northern half of Mississippi. This watch includes Noxubee and Winston counties in our area. Here's the link to the watch:
Tornado Watch* The squall line that will eventually affect us continues to strengthen over northeast Texas. The timeframe for its arrival here is between 1-4 AM, and it will leave between 4-7 AM. Looks like a long night for those of us in the weather business.
* Our going forecast looks to be in decent shape. We'll see a squall line of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. The main threat will be damaging winds and some hail. We cannot rule out tornadoes along and north of I-20.
* I have to get back to preparing graphics for the 6:00 news...Will update again this evening when the 0z (evening) model and sounding data becomes available.
Early Afternoon Update
* Here's the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Indicates the largest risk is along and north of a line from roughly Jackson to Macon. Take a look:
SPC Day 1 Outlook* After looking at the morning sounding (a measure of the entire atmosphere, done with a balloon carrying weather instruments), it seems like we may have a pretty strong cap. We had anticipated this. So, activity will most likely hold off until well after dark.
* Not a lot of change in our thinking. Still dealing with a squall line of severe thunderstorms. I would anticipate numerous severe thunderstorm warnings tonight, and perhaps a few tornado warnings. The main threat will be damaging straight line winds and scattered reports of large hail. We'll be here all night watching it closely.
* We will push back the timing on the arrival of the storms a bit. I would imagine we'll see the worst of hold off until after midnight. We'll highlight the period from 2:00AM - 8:00AM. The further north and west you are, the earlier in that period you will see the activity.
* Could be a very active day in eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, western Tennessee, and northwestern Alabama. Places like El Dorado, AR; Batesville, Tupelo, Olive Branch, and Muscle Shoals, AL.
SPC Day 1 Outlook
* The new Day 1 Outlook is out, and it continues a "Slight Risk" for severe thunderstorms for our area. Here's the outlook and discussion:
SPC Day 1 Outlook* My thinking has not changed too much. I believe we'll see supercells develop late tomorrow afternoon across eastern Arkansas, northwestern Mississippi and western Tennessee. These will be the "storms of the day" - rotating supercells that possibly produce tornadoes. As discussed earlier, the prime axis for this activity will be from El Dorado, Arkansas to Tupelo, Mississippi.
Further south, storms will have a tough time initiating due to a strong "cap", or layer of warm air aloft that keeps thunderstorms from developing. But, by late afternoon/evening, I would imagine we'll see some storms begin to fire across northeastern Louisiana and west central Mississippi. These will begin moving in our direction. As they move east, the instability will begin to decrease as we lose our daytime heating. This will cause the thunderstorms to likely form into a line. While this will reduce the tornado threat, the damaging thunderstorm wind threat will still be rather large.
Where and when this line forms will be crucial. If the line forms early, we'll see some damaging winds and perhaps some large hail, but the tornado threat will be low. If these storms stay separate from the other storms longer, our tornado threat will be higher. Right now, I think they will form into the line somewhere along the I-55 corridor.
As far as timing, I think the line will reach us sometime between midnight Friday and 7:00 Saturday morning. The main threat will be damaging winds and large hail, but there could be a few isolated tornadoes. The best chance of this will come along and north of a line from Forest to Philadelphia to Macon.
* Bottom line: Tonight will be an active weather night across parts of Mississippi, including potentially here at home. I encourage you to make sure you have a way of getting severe weather warnings (NOAA Weather Radio) AND a plan of action if your county goes under a warning. Taking these steps BEFORE the weather gets bad could save your life!
Missing Dog Alert
* Going to get away from the weather for a while to tell you about a missing dog. Her name is Anna, and she resides near the Meehan area. Her owners are desperately seeking her return. Here's a website with ALL of the info, please check it out:
Anna, the missing dogIf you recognize or have seen this dog, please contact the owner using the information the page above!
* Will post later this evening with an update on the severe weather prospects for tomorrow night.
Great Weather Today
* Gearing up for a very pleasant day today. Temperatures will make it into the lower 80's, with plenty of sunshine. I'll be out at the "Main Event" today from 1-2 pm, so if you are in the neck of the woods, come see us!
* Things still look on track for a threat of severe weather by late Friday. The main threat will be damaging thunderstorm winds, but if we get individual supercells to develop ahead of the line, we could have a tornado threat as well. The best chance of this would be along and north of I-20.
* Overall, the greatest threat will be north of here. I expect parts of eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee to really be under the gun, as well as parts of Kentucky.
* I am leaning towards adjusting our timeline for this event to a later time. We'll probably deal with the squall line sometime between 9pm and midnight Friday night. But, if supercells form, they will arrive earlier than the squall line. For now, we'll go with the idea that the worst of it will be from 4pm Friday - 4am Saturday morning. But, keep in mind that if we don't see supercells, then all of Friday afternoon will be dry and the storms will arrive Friday night.
* Cool air is on the way after the storms move out. Highs Saturday may not reach 70 in some parts of Mississippi/Alabama.
Severe Weather Update
* Still evaluating the threat of severe weather late Friday into early Saturday. Here's our latest thinking:
- Worst of the severe weather will be north and west of here, along an axis from roughly Shreveport, Louisiana to Louisville, Kentucky. This includes places like Greenville, MS; Memphis, TN; Jackson, TN; and Paducah, KY.
- Still too early to determine if we will see any supercells fire ahead of the cold front/squall line. If they do, our tornado threat could be pretty high, especially north of I-20.
- Even if we do NOT have supercells, I would imagine we will see some pretty significant thunderstorm winds. Wind speeds at 850 millibars (about 5000 feet above the ground) are forecast to be quite high (55-60 knots).
- Timeline of concern is from 1:00 PM Friday - 1:00 AM Saturday. We will probably adjust this timeline as we get closer to the potential event.
* I will post again early tomorrow morning after evaluating the latest data (around 8:30 AM).
Communication!
* A big part of our job is communicating with various government entities. This includes the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, and many others.
As you know, there is a threat of severe weather for late Friday into early Saturday morning. I want to give you the chance to "listen in" on some of the things we are hearing from various government sources about the severe weather potential:
From the Storm Prediction Center...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY E OF SFC LOW DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES...
POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOWS AND ANTICIPATED FAST CELL MOTIONS...WITH DAMAGING WIND ALSO A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN...SOME PART OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA MAY REQUIRE CATEGORICAL UPGRADE IN LATER UPDATES...
From the National Weather Service in Jackson...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...EAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
A STRONG DISTURBANCE...IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THESE FEATURES INTERACT WITH THE VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
WITH POWERFUL JET STREAM DYNAMICS IN PLACE...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND STRONG WIND SHEAR (WHICH IS THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION AND/OR SPEED WITH HEIGHT) IN PLACE...SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE.
* Our thinking is this: Severe weather is a good bet by Friday evening, with the worst of it coming over the northern half of Mississippi. But, it's really too early to try and pinpoint the exact location of the threat. But, if things continue on their current path, the worst threat for severe weather would be along an axis from Monroe, Louisiana to Louisville, Kentucky. This could be a widespread episode of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. We'll be watching things closely...
* I will post later this evening with a full update from the latest computer model guidance and analysis.
Pleasant Weather, Then Storms...
* The next couple of days will be very pleasant: Plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures headline the forecast. Temperatures tomorrow will probably get into the lower to middle 80's, with more warm weather on tap for Thursday. A few high clouds may make it back in here Thursday afternoon, but the main feature in the sky will be the sun.
* Our attention continues to focus on the possibility of severe weather late Friday into Saturday. The 18z (midday) run of the NAM model shows a potent setup: good instability, strong low level jet, good veering of the winds with height (shear). It's still a ways out, but I really believe we'll see a significant severe weather episode somewhere across the Deep South by Friday-Saturday. It might be north of us, it might be west of us; it's just too early to resolve the exact location and timing of the threat.
* Keep checking this space throughout the week for plenty of updates on any severe weather threat for the end of the week.
Storms Moving Through
* Still seeing a few storms push through southern parts of our area. Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued for Wayne County for about the next 7 minutes, and for Washington, Clarke, and Choctaw counties in west Alabama. The storm will affect mainly southern parts of Choctaw county.
* The cold front is pushing through central Mississippi. We'll watch for additional development along the front this afternoon, but that seems unlikely.
* Forgive the infrequent nature of the posts during a severe weather episode this morning. I've had some kind of food poisoning or stomach illness, and I've been rather "under the weather" since last night. I'm beginning to feel a bit better this afternoon.
Severe T-Storm Watch
* A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued until 4 pm for areas along and south of I-20. This watch includes places like Forest, Bay Springs, Newton, Meridian, Quitman, and Waynesboro. Here's the watch:
Severe Thunderstorm Watch* A few severe thunderstorm warnings coming out for the possibility of some large hail - right now its Leake and Scott counties under the gun.
* Our dewpoint is at 55...Still somewhat marginal for widespread severe weather. Our thinking on today has not changed much. Scroll down for our forecast.
Midnight Update
* The new Day 1 Outlook from SPC is out and includes almost all of Mississippi:
SPC Day 1 Outlook* Thunderstorms are moving into west-central Mississippi as I write this. These storms are below severe criteria, but stronger thunderstorms will move in later in the early morning hours. The primary threat will be large hail and damaging winds.
* My thinking has remained mostly unchanged. The worst of it will come between 6:00 AM and 2 PM. The main limiting factor is a lack of moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The dewpoint here is up to 50 degrees; it will continue to rise through the morning. Still, I doubt we'll get dewpoints much above 60. Our atmosphere just won't have enough instability to really get a widespread severe weather event. A few spotty wind and hail reports are likely, but the tornado threat appears to be rather small.
* Time for some sleep. My day began in my hometown of Jacksonville, Alabama, where I ate breakfast with a good friend early this morning, visited with some more close friends, then drove in and went to work. 12+ hour days are pretty common in our line of work!
Severe Weather Prospects
* Continuing to evaluate the possibility of severe weather for late tonight and especially tomorrow morning. Frankly, it does not look like a widespread severe weather episode. The limiting factor will be dry air near the surface, as evidenced by dewpoint values running in the 30's and 40's this evening. It will take a lot of moistening to get those dewpoints into "favorable" range - 60 or greater.
That being said, I note that Dallas, Texas saw a dewpoint rise of 20 degrees in 6 hours. If we see the same level of rapid moistening, we may have more severe weather than we currently expect. Even if we do not, I would anticipate some scattered severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather:
SPC Day 2 Outlook* Here are some of the model forecast severe weather parameters for Meridian at 7:00 AM tomorrow morning:
CAPE: 933
SRH: 329
LI: -3.0
EHI: 1.92
For more on what these values mean, check out the website below. Very neat stuff!
Severe Weather ParametersAnother Severe Weather Parameter Page* The bottom line is that we expect some showers and storms tomorrow. Some of those will be strong/severe, with hail and wind the main threat. The chance of tornadoes is very small due to the low dewpoints, but I've learned to "never say never" in discussing severe weather. If dewpoints are higher than we are currently forecasting, the tornado threat will increase. The time of maximum concern is from 6:00 AM - 2:00 PM.
