Communication!
* A big part of our job is communicating with various government entities. This includes the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, and many others.As you know, there is a threat of severe weather for late Friday into early Saturday morning. I want to give you the chance to "listen in" on some of the things we are hearing from various government sources about the severe weather potential:
From the Storm Prediction Center...
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY E OF SFC LOW DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME THREAT FOR TORNADOES...
POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOWS AND ANTICIPATED FAST CELL MOTIONS...WITH DAMAGING WIND ALSO A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN...SOME PART OF THIS OUTLOOK AREA MAY REQUIRE CATEGORICAL UPGRADE IN LATER UPDATES...
From the National Weather Service in Jackson...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...EAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
A STRONG DISTURBANCE...IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THESE FEATURES INTERACT WITH THE VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
WITH POWERFUL JET STREAM DYNAMICS IN PLACE...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND STRONG WIND SHEAR (WHICH IS THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION AND/OR SPEED WITH HEIGHT) IN PLACE...SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE.
* Our thinking is this: Severe weather is a good bet by Friday evening, with the worst of it coming over the northern half of Mississippi. But, it's really too early to try and pinpoint the exact location of the threat. But, if things continue on their current path, the worst threat for severe weather would be along an axis from Monroe, Louisiana to Louisville, Kentucky. This could be a widespread episode of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. We'll be watching things closely...
* I will post later this evening with a full update from the latest computer model guidance and analysis.
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 3:42 PM
2 Comments:
Josh
How much rain can we expect from Friday/Sat storm...
Thanks
Joe,
Amounts of 1-2" are likely...More in the most intense storms. The storms will be moving VERY quickly though, so the threat of heavy, flooding rains is rather small.
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