Twin States Weather Blog

Severe Weather Prospects

* Continuing to evaluate the possibility of severe weather for late tonight and especially tomorrow morning. Frankly, it does not look like a widespread severe weather episode. The limiting factor will be dry air near the surface, as evidenced by dewpoint values running in the 30's and 40's this evening. It will take a lot of moistening to get those dewpoints into "favorable" range - 60 or greater.

That being said, I note that Dallas, Texas saw a dewpoint rise of 20 degrees in 6 hours. If we see the same level of rapid moistening, we may have more severe weather than we currently expect. Even if we do not, I would anticipate some scattered severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather:

SPC Day 2 Outlook

* Here are some of the model forecast severe weather parameters for Meridian at 7:00 AM tomorrow morning:

CAPE: 933
SRH: 329
LI: -3.0
EHI: 1.92

For more on what these values mean, check out the website below. Very neat stuff!

Severe Weather Parameters

Another Severe Weather Parameter Page

* The bottom line is that we expect some showers and storms tomorrow. Some of those will be strong/severe, with hail and wind the main threat. The chance of tornadoes is very small due to the low dewpoints, but I've learned to "never say never" in discussing severe weather. If dewpoints are higher than we are currently forecasting, the tornado threat will increase. The time of maximum concern is from 6:00 AM - 2:00 PM.

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 5:34 PM