11:00 PM Arlene Update
The Tropical Prediction Center has issued its last advisory on Arlene. They acknowledge that heavy rain and flooding will still be a threat in the path of Arlene as it tracks through west central Alabama and western Tennessee.
24 Hour Rainfall reports from around the area as of 11 PMKey Field 2.42" Wind Gust: 32 mph
Golden Triangle Regional Airport 4.85" Wind Gust: 28 mph
Jackson International Airport 0.15" Wind Gust: 20 mph
Tuscaloosa Municipal Airport 0.89" Wind Gust: 25 mph
Looks like GTR saw more rain than Pensacola, FL!
Heaviest rainfall at this hour is in Noxubee, Kemper, and Sumter county. The center of what once was Arlene is roughly around the Demopolis area. It should cross I-20/59 between Tuscaloosa and Meridian during the overnight hours tonight.
Flood warnings remain in effect for Neshoba County in Mississippi and Sumter, Greene, and Marengo Counties in Alabama. Flooding is possible along the Upper Pearl, Tombigbee, and Black Warrior River basins.
The Wind Advisory will expire in Mississippi at 1 AM. The NWS in Birmingham is allowing their Wind Advisory to expire at 12 AM. The Flood Watch will be in effect until 7 AM Sunday morning.
The best news we have is no damage reports other than reports of heavy rainfall and street flooding. We escape Arlene without many problems, but it was definitely a kickoff to what is said will be a very active hurricane season. Stay tuned!
8:35 Arlene Update
At 7 PM CDT, the center of Arlene was 15 miles east of Jackson, Alabama. That is a little community in Clarke County.
It had been downgraded to a tropical depression, with maximum sustained winds at 35 mph.
Heavy rain continues to be the biggest threat. Some areas in West Alabama and parts of Kemper, Lauderdale, Clarke, and Jasper counties in MS have had almost 4 inches of rain in the past 24 hours. The ground is already saturated, so there may be flooding concerns in the Upper Pearl, Tombigbee, and Black Warrior River Basins.
We might see some more heavy rain and gusty winds as the center of the storm moves between Meridian and Tuscaloosa overnight. I'll be here keeping and eye on things..
6:20 Arlene Update
No damage to report from Arlene in our viewing area so far. Heavy rain still possible out there today, and some radar estimates show over 3 inches of rain falling in the last 24 hours in Lauderdale, Jasper, Clarke, and Wayne counties.
The center of Arlene will be passing very close to our area overnight, and should be located around Tuscaloosa, Alabama around 1 AM Sunday morning. I think the worst of the weather will come as the center passes close to our area. It appears that the counties that border Alabama and Mississippi will see the worst of the weather, but again, the rain will be the biggest threat, and the threat for flooding. Winds may gust to near 40 mph.
Back to the 6 oclock news and to watching the radar. We will be here with updates throughout the evening, and I will try to cut in on the hour until the 10 oclock news.
Ciao for now...
Arlene Update -- 1:30 PM
Tropical Storm Arlene continues to press on to the northern Gulf Coast. Landfall is occuring now along the Alabama/Florida border. As of the 1 PM Public Advisory from the Tropical Prediction Center, Arlene has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph with higher gusts. Lowest central pressure is around 991 mb, an increase from previous advisories.
Now what does that have to do with our weather? I think our biggest threat will be the heavy rain and flooding potential. Winds should be less of a problem, sustained between 25-40 mph for a brief time, especially in areas in West Alabama. Given the saturated soils, even winds of this speed can topple limbs and trees, but I get the idea that the biggest threat will be the heavy rainfall, with amounts of 4-6 inches possible. According to some rainfall estimates, parts of Wayne Co. MS and Choctaw Co. AL have seen almost 3 inches of rain. Would not be surprised to see isolated reports of 8 inches in some spots, especially south and west of here.
We're here keeping an eye on things, and will break into programming if necessary. Be sure to stay up with the latest on Arlene on our website and keep up with information coming out of the National Weather Service in Jackson and Birmingham, as well as the Tropical Prediction Center.
Arlene Pulsing Down...
Arlene is beginning to suffer some ill effects from the vast supply of dry air. Dry air is really beginning to get entrained into the system - and this is causing some weakening. The last NHC advisory had max winds at 70mph, I would be very surprised if the winds were not decreased with the next advisory.
We have seen some bursts of convection over the past hour or so, but I believe that will only be temporary.
The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch for most of south central and southwest Alabama, including Clarke county in our area. We'll watch this closely, but our opinion is that the main threat with Arlene will be the potential for some flooding. Again, the main area of concern for flooding will be in western Alabama.
I'm beginning to get a bit sleepy...I may take a power nap and write another update after the next NHC advisory (7-8 AM). Be safe if you're out driving on these wet roads!
Early Morning Update
* Tropical Storm Arlene is continuing to churn away in the central Gulf of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are at 70mph, and the storm is moving towards the NNW.
* Arlene will make landfall along the Alabama Gulf Coast early Saturday afternoon, bringing winds close to hurricane force to places like Gulf Shores, Alabama and Orange Beach, Alabama.
* Our effects here will be mostly just heavy rain. Flooding is a possibility, especially across parts of west Alabama. Rainfall amounts there will likely approach 4-6 inches.
* Derek Kinkade will handle the shift tomorrow. Charles Daniel and I will be on standby.
Arlene Strengthens More...
* The latest update is out from the National Hurricane Center, and Arlene is very close to becoming the first hurricane of the 2005 tropical season. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 70 mph. Any increase in strength, and Arlene will become a hurricane.
* The satellite presentation continues to show that Arlene is a very north and east dominant storm. The vast majority of the rain and wind with Arlene will be north and east of the center. This should keep us on the western (and hopefully calmer) side of things...As we've discussed, flooding will be the main threat - and the most significant threat of flooding is along the Tombigbee River basin of west Alabama.
* We are working on plans to provide frequent updates via the internet as Arlene moves inland tomorrow. We are already providing an
Audio Forecast, available at the
T.S. Arlene Info Desk. Check both of those out!
Arlene Strengthens...
* Arlene has strengthened a bit, with maximum sustained winds now up to 60 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings have been hoisted for the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf coasts. These locations have also been placed under a Hurricane Watch, in case Arlene strengthens into a hurricane. Arlene is becoming more impressive on satellite.
* Main threat here will be flooding, especially in west Alabama. But, given a saturated ground, there could be some spotty reports of wind damage as well. Again, we do not anticipate another storm like Ivan.
* Off to WTOK, to continue preparations for an interesting weekend.
Arlene Update
* Arlene continues to move northward and will enter into the Gulf of Mexico very soon. While the sea surface temperatures and upper winds are somewhat favorable for strengthening, dry air in the vicinity of the storm is limiting development. Tropical systems and dry air get along about as well as cats and dogs. Right now, Arlene is a minimal tropical storm because it's bringing some of that dry air into its western flank. But, once the dry air moves away from the storm, it will likely strengthen a bit before making landfall somewhere along the Mississippi/Alabama/Florida panhandle coast late Saturday. It is likely that the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf coasts will be placed under a Tropical Storm Watch later this (Friday) morning.
* Be sure to check out our Tropical Storm Arlene Info Desk. This page is complete with the hurricane center forecasts, satellite images, and computer model output showing where Arlene may go! I will also be doing an
Audio Update at times throughout the day Friday and Saturday. Simply click on the link below:
Tropical Storm Arlene Info Desk* Watching it closely...
Tropical Storm Arlene
* The first Tropical Storm of the 2005 season is whirling away in the Caribbean Sea. Arlene formed late last night, and continues to gradually get better organized.
* Our forecast track remains mostly unchanged, somewhere between the mouth of the Mississippi River and Panama City Beach, Florida. It should be noted that this storm's eastern side will probably be much more intense than its western side. So, if landfall occurs east of us, we will not see the full force of Arlene. Here's the latest visible satellite image from Arlene:
* The official intensity forecast from the NHC keeps Arlene as a Tropical Storm. I wouldn't be surprised if Arlene ends up becoming a weak hurricane before making landfall.
* The bottom line is that tropical weather forecasting is a very tough business, so check back here and at WTOK Weather for updates. Also, here's the National Hurricane Center's website, complete with an RSS feed:
Tropical Depression #1
* The first tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season has formed, and it could very well have a big impact on our area. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center:
NHC Public AdvisoryWe'll be throwing around a lot of the tropical terms in the next few days, so let's have a quick review:
Tropical Depression: this is the designation for a complex of thunderstorms that shows a lowered pressure and organized circulation in the center of the thunderstorm complex occurs. Sustained winds are usually between 20-39 mph.
Tropical Storm: when a tropical depression strengthens and sustained winds increase to 39-73 mph.
Hurricane: when a tropical storm strengthens and sustained winds increase to above 74 mph. Often characterized by an intense low-level circulation and eye (area of calm winds). The strongest winds, however, are located just outside of the eye.
* Our forecast thinking still calls for TD #1 to become Tropical Storm Arlene and eventually make landfall along the northern Gulf coast. Still hard to try and pinpoint an exact location. Here's the NHC official forecast:
* We'll watch it closely...
Hurricane already?
That's right. A tropical disturbance has been detected by the National Hurricane Center already in the month of June. The GFDL shows that there could possibly be a CAT 1 hurricane making landfall around the Mississippi/Louisiana border by Saturday morning.
This may seem like too early in the season for a hurricane to already be gracing us with its presence, but there have actually been numerous other occasions when hurricanes, or almost hurricanes, have struck in June.
Tropical Storm Allison payed a visit in 2001. She weakened very rapidly so the term "hurricane" didn't get used. Tropical Storm Bill made landfall in Louisiana in 2003.
Did you know that on average one tropical storm is observed during June every two years? Pretty amazing to have that amount of energy this early on.
Tropics Get Active...
* We are watching a cluster of thunderstorms down in the western Caribbean Sea. This cluster of storms is showing signs of becoming better organized, and could become a tropical depression later today. The National Hurricane Center will be sending a plane to investigate the system this afternoon. They are scheduled to be leaving the runway as I type this. Here's a complete rundown of our thinking on how this will affect us,if it should develop.
Intensity: Upper level winds will likely support some gradual strengthening with this system - and water temperatures are pretty warm. The intensity forecast will hinge on how well the low level circulation within the storm gets organized. Let me emphasize that I expect any intensification to be "gradual" strengthening. Major hurricanes are very rare this time of year, and I would be surprised if this storm became much more than a Tropical Storm.
Track: The GFS computer model has been very insistent on bringing this system northward, with a landfall along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Here's this morning's run of the GFS:
GFS Valid 7 AM SaturdayThe NAM, however, shows a slower track, with landfall likely occurring along the Louisiana coastline:
NAM Valid 7 PM SaturdayThe models seem to be reaching a consensus that this system will affect the northern Gulf Coast. But, until the system actually develops, it's still too early to try to pinpoint any potential landfall location. That being said, indications are that the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf Coasts could be under the gun by the weekend.
If you have beach plans, don't cancel yet. We all know how difficult tropical weather forecasting can be. My advice is to simply continue checking out this space over the next few days.
My interest in weather
I became interested in weather when I was just a kid. I have always loved severe weather, even though I am scared to death of actually seeing a tornado. Weather is an always changing and usually tricky force of nature.
I hope to become very experienced in this field so that I can be a forecaster that people can depend on. I am interning in hopes to feel comfortable not only in the environment of the station but also in the way that I communicate to the viewers. I would like to get out in the field and do some reporting as well as some things in the studio infront of the camera.
The more experience I can get the better. I am kind of shy, but once I get a feel for something I can roll with it. I hope to be "on a roll" by the end of this summer.
Tropical Mischief?
* The National Hurricane Center has issued a statement about an area of thunderstorms in the western Caribbean Sea:
"SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY."
* We will be watching this system closely!
A little something about me
My name is Harmony Johnson and I am interning here at WTOK for the summer. I am a senior at Mississippi State University majoring in Broadcast Meteorology. Ever since I was a kid I have loved the weather. IT facsinates me. WEll severe weather excites me, I mean don't get me wrong, I like sunny days as much as the next but severe weather is my favorite. It is so interesting to learn about how weather works and the changes the atmosphere goes through.
I hope to get a job next year somewhere in the south so I am close to home. I also want to work around here because of the amazing weather we have here in the south. It is so exciting and it is always changing. You never know what to expect especially during the summer when thunderstorms pop up out of nowhere.
I hope while I am here interning at WTOK that I can improve on my communication skills as well as learn more about how to forecast the weather. I mean that to me is the most important aspect of being a Meteorologist. You have to know all about the weather but forecasting and communicating it is what it is all about, especially since the weather is always changing.
And I hope to learn that while I am here so can take the knowledge with me as I start looking for a job in the near future.
Rain on the way...
* Looks like showers and thunderstorms are ongoing areas west of Highway 35 as I write this. The NWS in Jackson has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Madison County effective until 10 PM. These showers and storms should start to die down after midnight tonight, but I will still mention the chance of showers and storms west of Highway 15 for the evening hours tonight.
* Better chances of rain Monday and Tuesday for East MS and West AL. Scattered to numerous showers and storms out there both days. No severe weather expected, but we sill might see some heavy rain, gusty winds, and dangerous lightning with any of these storms that develop.
* Weather toward the middle and end of the work weeks looks more like summer with chances of showers and thunderstorms each day with highs back in the upper 80s and low 90s.
* Be sure to check out Good Morning Meridian tomorrow at 6 AM with Charles Daniel, and Josh Johnson will be here with the news at 5, 6, and 10 tomorrow! About to finish getting ready for the show tonight and figure out what food place stays open after the news is over!
