Friday, January 12, 2007

Big Changes on the Way!

I was really starting to enjoy the few days of sunny skies and temps in the mid 50's. Unfortunately, we are in the middle of a warming trend, and that will allow temps to reach into the lower 70's on both Saturday and Sunday. Don't get too comfortable though! We go from highs in the 70's on Sunday to highs in the 40's on Tuesday!

An arctic air mass will try to plunge into the Deep South on Monday night behind a cold front. We will see some rain with this boundary, but the drastic temperature change is the big story.

Already this front is causing travel troubles in the Central Plains. When you combine abundant moisture with arctic temperatures,...you guessed it! ICE! There are Ice Storm Warnings from Illinois stretching back into Texas behind the front. In Oklahoma City, OK they are expecting 0.2"-0.4" of ICE. On top of that, the central US is looking at sleet and freezing rain.

If anything, extreme NW Mississippi may see a little wintry mix, but very doubtful. Temps are still a little too warm, and by the time the "real" cold weather arrives, the moisture should be long gone.

Still take care on the roadways for the holiday weekend as Sunday night and Monday look to be a little rainy!

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Midweek Update

* I hope you'll forgive the infrequent posting of late - these double shifts are making it difficult to find time to post many thoughts. I will try my best to do a better job of posting next week.

* Rain Chances? We will deal with some rain in here fairly soon, the big question is when and how much...At this point, the heaviest rain and best chance of rain will come on Sunday night and into early Monday. However, rain chances will begin as early as Friday, although many places could stay dry throughout Friday and Saturday.

* Next Week: The pattern next week is full of uncertainty, but we do know a few things. First, a very cold Arctic airmass is going to slide into the eastern half of the United States. Secondly, there will be some moisture around the Gulf. The big question is how far north does the moisture get, and exactly how does the cold air interact with the moisture. Too early for specific answers, but keep it in the back of your mind that parts of Mississippi and Alabama could possibly deal with some wintry weather at some point next week...

* Vacation - I feel like I've gone on 10 vacations in the last month, but I'm heading off again. This trip will take me to Gatlinburg, TN and the Smoky Mountains. This is a yearly trip that I take with some lifelong friends...Should be a fun time; sadly, no snow is in the forecast. I'll post some pics from the trip next week when I return.

Monday, January 08, 2007

NWS Report on Tornadoes...

* Here's the official NWS report from the recent severe weather episode...Forgive the all caps; it's a government thing:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 PM CST SAT JAN 6 2007

...TWO MORE TORNADOES CONFIRMED IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TODAY...TOTAL OF SIX TORNADOES NOW CONFIRMED IN THIS AREA...

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM CONDUCTED SURVEYS AGAIN TODAY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. A FIFTH TORNADO TRACK WAS FOUND IN NOXUBEE COUNTY AND A SIXTH TRACK WAS FOUND IN JONES COUNTY.

...TORNADO 6...JONES COUNTY...

BEGINNING POINT: 2 SW SOSO AT APPROXIMATELY 12:27 AM
ENDING POINT: 1 SSW SOSO
PATH LENGTH: 1.2 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS
PRELIMINARY FUJITA RATING: F1
CASUALTIES: NONE

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE: NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. ONE TREE FELL ON A CAR. A STORAGE BUILDING WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED. A SINGLE WIDE TRAILER WAS PUSHED OFF THE BLOCKS BUT REMAINED UPRIGHT. ROOF DAMAGE OCCURRED TO A DOUBLE WIDE TRAILER. THE DAMAGE WAS ALL ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 75 TO 100 MPH RANGE.

...TORNADO 5...NOXUBEE COUNTY...

BEGINNING POINT: 5.5 WNW SHUQUALAK AT APPROXIMATELY 2:05 AM
ENDING POINT: 4 NW SHUQUALAK
PATH LENGTH: 3.7 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 300 YARDS
PRELIMINARY FUJITA RATING: F1
CASUALTIES: NONE

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE: DAMAGE WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO A TORNADIC PATH OF TREE DAMAGE, INCLUDING NUMEROUS LARGE TREES BEING SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. HOWEVER, ONE HOME WHICH WAS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE PATH OF THE TORNADO DID SUFFER SOME MINOR DAMAGE, INCLUDING SOME MINOR ROOF DAMAGE AND DAMAGE TO A CARPORT.

IN ADDITION...THE SURVEY TEAM ALSO INVESTIGATED DAMAGE IN NORTHEAST NEWTON COUNTY ALONG PIERCE ROAD WHERE A TRAILER HOME HAD A LARGE PART OF ITS ROOF RIPPED OFF, AND IN SOUTHWEST KEMPER COUNTY WHERE A MOBILE HOME WAS TOTALLY DESTROYED AND THREE PEOPLE WERE INJURED NEAR THE DAMASCUS COMMUNITY. BOTH OF THESE DAMAGE AREAS WERE DETERMINED TO BE THE RESULT OF DOWNBURST STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. THE WIND SPEED AT THE NEWTON COUNTY SITE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 75 MPH, WHILE THE DAMAGE AT THE KEMPER COUNTY SITE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100 MPH.

BELOW ARE THE SUMMARIES OF THE OTHER EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
TORNADOES:

&&

...TORNADO 1...NEWTON AND NESHOBA COUNTIES...

BEGINNING POINT: 1 SW PROSPECT AT ABOUT 1:00 AM
ENDING POINT: 6 WSW NESHOBA
PATH LENGTH: 4.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 300 YARDS
PRELIMINARY FUJITA RATING: F1
CASUALTIES: NONE REPORTED

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE: AT LEAST EIGHT CHICKEN HOUSES WERE DESTROYED. NUMEROUS TREES, BOTH PINES AND HARDWOODS, WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. THREE HOMES SUFFERED DAMAGE, INCLUDING ONE HOME WHICH HAD ABOUT HALF OF ITS ROOF TAKEN OFF AND BLOWN SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET AWAY.

...TORNADO 2...NESHOBA COUNTY...
BEGINNING POINT: 5.5 W NESHOBA AT ABOUT 1:15 AM
ENDING POINT: 3.5 NW NESHOBA
PATH LENGTH: 3 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 400 YARDS
PRELIMINARY FUJITA RATING: F1
CASUALTIES: NONE REPORTED

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE: NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. TWO HOMES SUSTAINED DAMAGE, INCLUDING ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. A NUMBER OF OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

...TORNADO 3...NESHOBA COUNTY...
BEGINNING POINT: 2 NE TUCKER AT ABOUT 1:25 AM
ENDING POINT: 3 NE TUCKER
PATH LENGTH: 1.2 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 150 YARDS
PRELIMINARY FUJITA RATING: F2
CASUALTIES: NONE REPORTED

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE: A BRICK HOME SUFFERED MAJOR DAMAGE AS IT HAD ITS ENTIRE ROOF STRUCTURE TOTALLY REMOVED. A LARGE OUTBUILDING WAS DESTROYED. A TRACTOR WAS PICKED UP AND ROLLED. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED, DOWNED AND UPROOTED.

...TORNADO 4...KEMPER COUNTY...
BEGINNING POINT: 1 WSW BLACKWATER AT ABOUT 1:40 AM
ENDING POINT: 2 NNW BLACKWATER
PATH LENGTH: 2 MILES
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH: 250 YD
PRELIMINARY FUJITA RATING: F2
CASUALTIES: NO FATALITIES, 9 INJURIES, 3 SERIOUS INJURIES

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE: 6 HOMES WERE DESTROYED. 5 OF THE HOMES WERE MOBILE HOMES AND 1 WAS A MODULAR HOME. THE MOBILE HOMES WERE STRAPPED DOWN. A CAR WAS FLIPPED OVER AND ROLLED, AND THERE WAS A PATH OF EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE.

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