Big Changes on the Way!
I was really starting to enjoy the few days of sunny skies and temps in the mid 50's. Unfortunately, we are in the middle of a warming trend, and that will allow temps to reach into the lower 70's on both Saturday and Sunday. Don't get too comfortable though! We go from highs in the 70's on Sunday to highs in the 40's on Tuesday!An arctic air mass will try to plunge into the Deep South on Monday night behind a cold front. We will see some rain with this boundary, but the drastic temperature change is the big story.
Already this front is causing travel troubles in the Central Plains. When you combine abundant moisture with arctic temperatures,...you guessed it! ICE! There are Ice Storm Warnings from Illinois stretching back into Texas behind the front. In Oklahoma City, OK they are expecting 0.2"-0.4" of ICE. On top of that, the central US is looking at sleet and freezing rain.
If anything, extreme NW Mississippi may see a little wintry mix, but very doubtful. Temps are still a little too warm, and by the time the "real" cold weather arrives, the moisture should be long gone.
Still take care on the roadways for the holiday weekend as Sunday night and Monday look to be a little rainy!
posted by Lauren Raymer @ 10:20 PM
4 Comments:
FROPA is way ahead of schedule. From NWS in JAN:
"THE ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY ARRIVING IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR
WILL THEN REACH ALL OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MONDAY MORNING AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE
FALLING ALL DAY BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE 30S
WITH EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY WHERE LIGHT RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE."
40s will be too warm for Tuesday. If model guidance thinks 40, its gotta only get into the mid or upper 30s.
Exactly what anonymous said. Typically down here and in the south the models fail every time with arctic air because of how shallow and dense it is. Then when the forecast is wrong they say it's poor model performance :)
Plus on Tuesday I wouldn't be surprised if the high was around midnight and the temps fell throughout the day or hovered in the 30s in Meridian and Jackson most of the day.
Also, wintery precip is possible now according to the latest NWS disco along and NW of the Natchez trace.
Thanks for all your comments! Yes, absolutely, the models do very poorly with extreme temperature changes. The RAW temperatures seem to be a little more reasonable for Tuesday, with the highs occurring at midnight and falling into the 30's throughout the day. Overall, this has been a tricky forecast because the models are doing poorly and because the whole system is moving so slow!
A friend at WeatherVision in Jackson is confident that they may see freezing rain on Tuesday! What a change! For our viewing area, I'm confident that moisture will exit before surface temps drop below freezing on Tuesday.
Thanks again for your comments!Glad to know you are keeping up with the blog!
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