Tornado Confirmed...
* The NWS has assigned a preliminary rating of F2 to the tornado that struck the Blackwater community. I have no new information about anyone who was injured - watch tonight at 5,6, and 10 and the crew will tell you the latest.* BAD Forecast: I really didn't see this one coming. I didn't miss it for lack of trying, so what went wrong? To get severe weather and especially tornadoes, you need enough instability and enough shear. Last night, there was more than ample shear, but I believed the instability was too low to create problems. I was wrong. I don't like being wrong at all, but it has happened before and will happen again in this business.
If you happen to read this or watch us on TV and expect us to never miss, stop wasting your time. Find a different channel or different website, or perhaps pick up a new hobby, because it's not going to happen.
We strive to be right, it's what weather forecasters want more than anything. But, this is an inexact science, and it is inevitable that we will be wrong. There aren't many strangers to those who were injured who take the news harder than I do, and they'll be in my thoughts through the next few weeks. And, before I get back to weather discussion, a big thanks to those who sent words of encouragement. A kind word goes a long way...
* Back to Weather: The big story tonight will be dense fog - lasting into tomorrow morning. Be careful if you are out on the roads. Rain will return tomorrow night and Sunday, and there could be some thunderstorms involved. We'll be watching...
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 3:45 PM
3 Comments:
Hey, you did the best you could. Forecasts don't always come true and most people dont understand that. A lot of people expect what the meteorologist says. Like you said, if you think the forecast will come true everytime, quit wasting your time. That is a good point and that is referring to my first part of this comment on how people dont understand that part. Most think the forecast will come true everytime but again it doesn't. But anyway, again, you tried and continue to do your best at what you do, forecasting. Also, I like the way you come out and you are honest with your viewers about how your forecasting may have been off some.
David Cole
Stellar job, Josh. As someone who has both worked with you, and been in the same boat, I know that you did everything that you possibly could to get the forecast correct... and above all, help protect the lives and property of those in your viewing area.
Derek Kinkade
Meteorologist, WTVM/WXTX-TV
Columbus, GA
Josh,
Don't beat yourself up. You've been on top of everything in the viewing area from Katrina to this event. We tell people to always be careful, even if they may not be in the primary "threat area".
The injuries are sad- I feel for anyone in harms way. A situation like this makes us work harder to preform better. However, all you can do is take the snapshot of the atmosphere you're given and make a call.
You're a trained scientist dealing with rapidly changing conditions. At the end of the day you haven't even heard about the ones you did protect. What we do know is you did everything in your power to make protection possible.
Joshua McKinney
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