Saturday, September 16, 2006

Hurricane Helene Strenthening....

Hurricane Helene, now the fourth named storm this season, is beginning to strengthen and is located about 1100 miles east of the N. Leeward Islands. Here's the latest advisory:

Motion: NW near 13 mph
Sustained Winds: 74 mph with higher gusts
Central Pressure: 987 mb

Helene is forecasted to strengthen over the next 48-72 hours, and then the intensification should level out a bit and neither strengthen nor weaken significantly.

An upper-level trough should swing through our area Monday and then begin to move off the eastern coast. This pattern should help to turn Helene more to the north-northeast and prevent it from having any impact on the U.S.

Friday, September 15, 2006

Warm, Then Wet...

* WEEKEND: Saturday and Sunday both look fantastic, with plenty of sunshine both days. Highs will reach the lower 90's on both days as well. I suppose there is a small chance of a scant shower or thunderstorm by late Sunday afternoon/evening, but the feeling here is that any rain will hold off until Monday.

* FOOTBALL WEATHER: The weather will cooperate with all of the big games around the South tomorrow. A bit warm, but plenty of sunshine and fairly low humidity.

* STORMY MONDAY? A deep upper trough over the northern Plains will swing a cold front towards us by early next week. This has the potential to create a line of thunderstorms, some of which could be strong.

However, the lack of any really cold air aloft should keep instability parameters in check. Also, it seems that the best dynamics will pass to our north. All of this being said, I believe we will see a squall line move through sometime early Monday, but the threat of severe weather with this line will be fairly small.

* Hope you have a GREAT weekend!

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Gordon and Helene...

* Hurricane Gordon sure looks impressive on satellite imagery this evening...Max sustained winds are now up to 120 mph, making Gordon the season's first major (Cat 3 or stronger) hurricane. Thankfully, Gordon is not going to threaten any part of the U.S. mainland. Here's Gordon:



* Gordon is compact, yet quite intense.

* HELENE: T.D. 8 had been upgraded to Tropical Storm Helene. This will be a storm to keep an eye on, however, it does still seem likely that it will eventually curve out to sea before striking the East Coast. At any rate, it's quite difficult to envision a scenario in which Helene enters the Gulf of Mexico. But, we'll watch. Here's the latest model guidance on Helene:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

* AROUND HERE: Looks pretty nice. Highs in the middle 80's for the next couple of days, but we warm up a bit by this weekend (highs near 90 for Sat. and Sun.) Rain chances increase dramatically on Monday with the approach of a front. That same front will deliver a nice shot of cooler air around the middle of next week.

Monday, September 11, 2006

A Plate Full of Weather...

* We weather people often complain about the stagnant weather patterns that are so prevalent during the summer. After all, it's hard to talk about "hot and humid with scattered thunderstorms" 3 times daily for 3 minutes. But, things are changing...

* FRONT APPROACHES: A front is slicing through the southern Plains, and a pre-frontal band of thunderstorms is making steady progress towards the southeast. This complex of rain and thunderstorms will arrive here during the day tomorrow, when rain and thunderstorms are likely. This should be our most substantial and widespread rain in weeks, if not months.

* TROPICS: Tropical Storm Gordon has joined Hurricane Florence as the second named system currently taking up residence in the Atlantic Basin. Thankfully, neither of these systems are going to threaten the United States. However, Florence will likely become a very powerful extratropical low pressure system, and will bring some serious problems to shipping interests in the north Atlantic.

* 9/11 Anniversary: Be sure to visit our News Blog and leave your 9/11 remembrance and story. I, like you, will never forget that day. I was a sophomore at Mississippi State, and my roommate told me that something bad had happened at the World Trade Center.

Of course, we all know now that it wasn't a bomb or an accident, but a terrorist attack the likes of which our country had never seen. MSU played the first college football game after the attack, and there was a huge American flag held just over the field and a earth-shattering flyover. Pretty tremendous stuff...

Sunday, September 10, 2006

Hurricane Florence Still Churning...

Tropical Storm Florence got her act together early this morning and became a hurricane with maximum sustained winds now around 90mph. The storm is steadily approaching Bermuda, now located about 185 south-southeast of the island.

Florence is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours and is likely to become a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. However, once the storm moves past Bermuda, it is expected to encounter some pretty significant wind shear which will quickly cause weakening.

High pressure sitting in the New England area should help to steer Florence off to the northeast. Although this hurricane will not directly affect the U.S., waters are going to get pretty choppy along the east coast.

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