Enterprise, AL Tornado
* The deadly tornado that struck Enterprise High School in Enterprise, AL has been rated an EF-3:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
926 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2007
..TIME… …EVENT… …CITY LOCATION… …LAT.LON…
..DATE… ….MAG…. ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..
0210 PM TORNADO ENTERPRISE 31.31N 85.85W
03/01/2007 F3 COFFEE AL NWS STORM SURVEY
*** 9 FATAL *** 8 KILLED IN SCHOOL WHEN CONCRETE WALL
COLLAPSED IN HALLWAY. TORNADO PATH APPROX. 200 YARDS WIDE
AND 10 MILES LONG. INFO BASED ON STORM SURVEY BY WCM ON
3/2/07.
Labels: Severe Weather
For the Space Fans...
* NASA has released some very high resolution imagery and videos of Saturn. These were captured by NASA's Cassini spacecraft:
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/cassini/main/index.html* Red Moon Sat. Night: If the moon appears to turn red or partially disappear Sat. night, don't be alarmed. A lunar eclipse will give the moon a reddish hue at times Saturday night. This will happen as light from the Sun passes through our atmosphere and is refracted before reaching the moon.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LUNAR_ECLIPSE?SITE=7219&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2007-03-02-10-48-14Labels: Space
Some Relatively Good News
* While it's hard to say this is completely "good" news, it is good to hear that the death toll has been revised down. Earlier, it was reported that 15 people were killed at the high school in Enterprise. Now, CNN is reporting that 7 were killed in the town of Enterprise, 5 of those at the school...
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WEATHER/03/01/severe.weather/index.html* I have also received word of three people killed in Georgia. Another was killed in Missouri. These are sobering reminders of why we must take threats like today seriously.
* Let's talk about our forecast...It looks much improved. Pleasant, albeit cool, weather is ahead for the weekend. Highs on Sunday may stay in the lower 50's, with Sunday morning temperatures in the upper 20's.
* Be sure to join us tomorrow at 5 and 6 LIVE from Newton...
Labels: Severe Weather
Enterprise Tornado Video
http://www.dothanfirst.com/content/fulltext/?sid=94a69d7b18928ab59e4c72ec3aff8ee3&cid=5435The following link, courtesy of Dothanfirst.com, shows the damage of the tornado in Enterprise, Alabama. It also shows a close up shot of the winds of a tornado.
Let's keep those affected by this horrific tragedy in our thoughts and prayers over the days and weeks to come...
Enterprise, AL Pictures
* These pictures are from Enterprise High School in Enterprise, AL...Reports there indicate we have seen 8 fatalities there - very sad stuff. Pics courtesy of WTVY-4 in Dothan:
Labels: Pictures
Tornado Watch Extended In West Alabama:
* Locally, the NWS in Birmingham has extended the Tornado Watch for its counties in West Alabama until 8:00 PM.
* In our viewing area, that includes Marengo and Hale Co.
* * Locally, the NWS in Mobile has extended the Tornado Watch for Clarke Co. in West Alabama until 8:00 PM as well.
Tornado Warning Continues for Marengo County
* We continue to watch an area of rotation move through northern Marengo County...The possible tornado will pass very near or perhaps just south of the city of Demopolis...
* Watching closely...
Tornado Warning - Marengo Co.
* NWS Birmingham has issued a Tornado Warning for Marengo Co. until 5:45 PM
Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBMX/0703012306.wfus54.htmlThe storm will affect Demopolis, Jefferson, Linden, Chicksaw State Park. It is moving NE at 50 mph.
5:00 Report:
* Tornado Warning remains in effect for Sumter and Green Co in West Alabama until 5:30 PM
* Tornado watch has been cancelled for all Mississippi counties in our viewing area with the exception of Clarke and Wayne Co. All our West Alabama counties remain under the Tornado Watch until 6:00 PM.
* Possible tornado touchdown the Zero community in Lauderdale Co. We have a news crew heading that way to get more information and officials with LEMA (Lauderdale Co. EMA) are heading that way as well.
* Sad news: the death toll in Alabama has risen to 13 with 5 of those deaths just outside our West Alabama viewing area in Wilcox Co.
* More updates on our Live at 5:00 newscast that is currently on WTOK.
Tornado Warning - Hale Co.
* NWS Birmingham has issued a Tornado Warning for Hale Co. until 5:30
Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBMX/0703012252.wfus54.htmlThe storm will affect Moundville and areas of Northern Hale Co.
Possible Tornado Touchdown in Zero:
* WTOK viewer is reporting possible tornado touchdown in the Zero community in South Central Lauderdale Co.
* Report of damage to a roof of a home in the Zero community. Working to get more information. Our newsroom is reporting LEMA is heading that way to check things out. We will have more as we get more here at Newscenter 11. We have a news crew heading that way.
Tornado Warning - Sumter Co.
* NWS Birmingham has issued a Tornado Warning for Sumter Co. until 5:15 PM
Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBMX/0703012243.wfus54.htmlAreas in the threat include York, Livingston, Bellamy, Cuba, Ward, Kinterbish
Severe T'Storm Warning - Wayne Co.
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued by NWS Mobile for Wayne Co. until 5:15 PM
Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KMOB/0703012231.wuus54.htmlThe storm will affect Waynesboro, Winchester, Chicora, Robinson Junction, Buckatunna, Denham
Trees Down in Lauderdale County
* NWS and the Laud. Co EOC are reporting trees down near the I-20/59 split, just west of Meridian...
* Powerful winds are possible with this band of storms, pushing through SE Laud Co, northern Clarke County (MS), and into west AL.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:
* NWS has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Clarke County...
* This is the band of storms mentioned in the previous post..Main threats are damaging winds and large hail.
* Places in the path of this storm are Quitman, Enterprise, Stonewall, and Clarkdale...
Labels: Severe Weather
Storms Approaching Meridian
* A line of severe thunderstorms is pushing east through the area, and is approaching downtown Meridian....
* Winds of 50-60mph are possible within parts of this band...Also, we could see some large hail.
* The band of storms runs from roughly Carrollton, AL to DeKalb to Collinsville to Bay Springs....
* Scroll down for info on warnings...
Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Kemper Co. & Tornado Warning - Jones County
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Kemper Co. until 4:14
Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0703012156.wuus54.htmlWarning includes: De Kalb, Enondale, Blackwater, Prismatic, Tamola
* Tornado Warning for Southeast Jones County
Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0703012159.wfus54.htmlWarning is for the extreme southeast portion of the county.
Severe T'Storm Warning - Lauderdale Co.
* NWS Jackson has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Lauderdale Co. until 4:45PM
Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0703012154.wuus54.htmlThe line of storms will affect all areas of the county including the city of Meridian and Meridian Naval Air Station
Severe T'Storm Warnings - Noxubee and Jasper Co.
* NWS Jackson has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Noxubee Co. until 4:00 PM
Noxubee Warning Text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0703012146.wuus54.htmlThe storm will affect Macon, Praire Point, Cliftonville, Bigbee Valley
* NWS Jackson has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Jasper Co. until 4:00 PM
Jasper Warning Text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0703012147.wuus54.htmlThe storm will affect Louin, Bay Springs, Rose Hill, Pauling, Missionary
3:20 PM Update
**NOTE: Click on the above image for a larger version**
* The second band of storms is approaching a Louisville-Philadelphia-Forest-Mendenhall line...These storms are growing in intensity, and will likely become severe over the next few hours.
* Let's watch the Smith County storm closely...There are signs of rotation passing just north of Raleigh...
Labels: Severe Weather
Tornado Warning Cancelled
* Warning cancelled in Sumter County....
* Threat continues in southern Pickens and right along the Greene/Pickens border...If you live close to there, take cover.
Tornado Warning: Sumter County
*
NWS has issued a Tornado Warning for northernmost Sumter County...* This will affect only the extreme northern part of Sumter County...north of Geiger...
* The threat with this storm remains primarily in southern Pickens County..If you live there, take cover on the lowest floor of your home, in an interior bathroom, hallway, or closet.
Quick Update...
* We are between batches right now, but the worst of it is certainly in west Alabama..Tornado warnings continue for Pickens and Greene counties for the next few mins...
* The second wave is strengthening...Parts of Neshoba county are really under the gun..Nothing severe as of yet.
* We are NOT out of the woods yet...The second band has a chance to become severe...
TOR Sumter/Greene
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBMX/0703012011.wfus54.htmlIn long form coverage...Updates will be made as possible...
Take cover Geiger, northern Sumter County..
Labels: Severe Weather
Tornado Warning: Southern Choctaw/Northern Washington
*
NWS Mobile has issued a Tornado Warning until 2:30 PM for southern Choctaw and northern Washington counties...
* This potential tornado will pass close to these communities:
Millry
Silas
Cullomburg
Frankville
Coffeeville
Labels: Severe Weather
Severe T'Storm Warning - Kemper & Noxubee Co.
* NWS Jackson has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Kemper and Noxubee Co. until 2:45 PM.
Warning Text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0703011937.wuus54.htmlThe storm will affect Macon, Preston, Mashulaville, Shuqualak
Tornado Warning: SE Wayne County
* A
Tornado Warning has been issued for southeastern Wayne County...The warning is in effect until 2pm...
Labels: Severe Weather
Severe T'Storm Warning - Leake County
* NWS Jackson has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Leake County until 1:15PM
Warning Text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0703011837.wuus54.htmlStorm will affect the northern part of the county including Carthage.
Early School Dismissal:
* Just into the newsroom here at Newscenter 11:
Newton Academy is dismissing at 1:30 PM
Patrician Academy is dismissing at 1:30PM.... thats in Choctaw Co. Alabama
Russell Christian Academy and Potter's Wheel Daycare are closing at 2
Tornado Warning - Scott County
* NWS Jackson has issued a Tornado Warning for Scott County until 1:15 PM
* Warning Text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0703011817.wfus54.html* The Storm will affect Morton, Forest,
Early School Dismissal:
* Just into Newscenter 11....
Sumter Academy is dismissing students at 1:00 PM
Tornado Warning: Rankin County...
* NWS has issued a
Tornado Warning for Rankin County....
* This storm will eventually move into Scott County, and I believe a tornado warning could be issued for Scott County within the next 20-30 minutes.
Severe T'Storm Warning - Southeast Marengo County
* NWS B'ham has issued at Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Southeast Marengo County until 12:15 PM
Warning Text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBMX/0703011800.wuus54.htmlThe storm will affect Consul, Vineland, and Linden
Sumter County Schools..
* Sumter County Schools are dismissing at 1pm today...
* Watch WTOK for more info on any closings, as well as pertinent weather info...
* Another possibly tornadic storm is moving into Clarke County, AL...
Tornado Warning - Northern Clarke County, Alabama
* NWS Mobile has issued has issued a Tornado Warning for Northern Choctaw County.
Warning Text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KMOB/0703011742.wfus54.htmlStorm will affect Tallahatta Springs, Bashi, Thomasville, Roundhill, Shawnee
Tornado Warning - Marengo Co. & Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Choctaw, Clarke in Alabama & Tornado Warning Clarke Co. Alabama
* NWS Birmingham has issued a Tornado Warning for Marengo County in West Alabama until Noon.
Warning Text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBMX/0703011720.wfus54.htmlThe storm will affect Dixons Mills, Magnolia, Shiloh
* NWS Mobile has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Clarke County and Choctaw County until 11:45 AM
Warning Text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KMOB/0703011720.wuus54.htmlThe storm will affect Morvin and Holtamville
* NWS Mobile has issued at Torando Warning for Clarke County in West Alabama
Warning Text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KMOB/0703011728.wfus54.htmlStorm will affect: Bashi and Shawanee
New Mesoscale Discussion...Troubling
* SPC has issued a new
Mesoscale Discussion..* Here are some excerpts:
THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES OVER REMAINING PARTS OF WW 43 AND 44
WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR A FEW LONG TRACK STRONG TORNADOES NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF MS...SRN AL AND NWRN AL.
STORMS CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO SWRN MS WILL
POSE A THEAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES AS THEY MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THE WRM
SECTOR OF SRN AND CNTRL MS NEXT FEW HOURS.
* I get the idea the storms over western MS are going to rapidly increase in intensity and possibly become tornadic as they move into central and eastern MS. The reasoning behind this is that the air here is more moist and unstable; I've even seen a few peaks of sun today.
Labels: Severe Weather
Radar Update at 10:30 AM:
* We are watching the storm closely in Wayne County as it is out by itself in the area that has not been tapped for storms this morning. The highest dewpoints in Twin States are over East Mississippi and West Alabama.
Timing Adjustment...
* Given recent radar trends, it seems prudent to extend the time frame of concern...Let's say the worst of the weather will come through here beginning between now and noon and lasting through 6 or 7 pm...
* Scroll down for pertinent info...We remain under a P.D.S. Tornado Watch. Those are rare and imply that this is a very serious situation. This particular PDS Watch is probably the largest I've ever seen, extending from the Missouri bootheel to the Gulf coast...
Labels: Severe Weather
PDS Tornado Watch Issued Until 6:00 PM
* A Tornado Watch has been issued by the Storm Predition Center for all of the WTOK viewing area until 6:00 PM ... This Is a Particularly Dangerous Situation...
Watch Information:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0044.htmlMississippi counties: Lauderdale, Newton, Scott, Smith, Jasper, Jones, Clarke, Wayne, Kemper, Neshoba, Leake, Winston, Noxubee
Alabama counties: Sumter, Choctaw, Marengo, Pickens, Green, Hale, Clarke
* Stay with Newscenter 11 and Fox Meridian for the latest updates...
Informational Graphics
* A few weather informational graphics to discuss the weather situation today in a visual setting:
NWS Special Weather Statement:
* Special weather statement from the NWS Jackson:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
630 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007
...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES POSSIBLE...
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WHOLE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS STATES MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE WESTAS A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A GRENADA TO MERIDIAN LINE...BUT THE ENTIRE REGION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE VIOLENT WEATHER.
A TORNADO WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS UNTIL 2 PM CST. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MID MORNING...AND AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AROUND MIDDAY...SEVERE WEATHER THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END IN THOSE REGIONS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE COMING TO AN END BEFORE SUNSET.
Interesting Note...
* This is from the National Weather Service in Birmingham:
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER
A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. SINCE 1989…PARTS
OF ALABAMA HAVE BEEN UNDER A HIGH RISK ON 10 OCCASIONS:
NOVEMBER 15 1989 (HUNTSVILLE TORNADO)
MARCH 27 1994 (PALM SUNDAY TORNADO OUTBREAK)
NOVEMBER 27 1994
MAY 2 1997
APRIL 8 1998 (OAK GROVE F5 TORNADO)
MAY 5 1999
OCTOBER 13 2001
NOVEMBER 10 2002 (VETERANS DAY TORNADO OUTBREAK)
MAY 5 2003
APRIL 7 2006
Some Potentially Bad News...
Note: You can click the above image for a full-size version.
* This is the Infrared Satellite imagery this morning across the Deep South. You'll note the stripe of relative clearing from central LA, along I-20 through central MS, and into central AL. While the sun has not come up, this could potentially be very bad news. The sun could come out in our area today, which would lead to a strong increase in the amount of instability present in the atmosphere. The already high probability of severe weather would increase dramatically as a result.
* NOTE: The image above, as mentioned, is infrared. That means it shows the temperature of the clouds, and low clouds have a relatively warm temperature. The warmer temperature clouds, like low clouds, are generally more difficult to detect on the infrared suite of data. I peaked out my window, and I see these low clouds. So, there is not complete clearing in that band, a few low clouds remain. But, once the sun rises, these low clouds could be mixed out quickly, leading to sunshine.
* I also note the dewpoint at Meridian's Key Field is up to 63. Hattiesburg's dewpoint is at 66. The atmosphere is primed and ready to explode.
* Still expect thunderstorms to initiate to our west over the next few hours. These will rapidly become severe, and could also become tornadic. Best threat here still from 8am til 4pm. Scroll down for more info...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Major Severe Weather Threat Possible Today:
* Good morning everyone. February ends like a lamb and March comes in like a lion. As you have noticed below in the earlier blog postings, all of the WTOK viewing area has been placed under a rarely issued "High Risk" of severe weather for today. That simply means the ingredients are in place for the development of severe weather... but more defined. Usually a high risk area means there is a greater threat for large damaging tornadoes, hail and winds.
* As of 4:45 AM.... the SPC has a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for Northern Mississippi and Alabama north of US Hwy 82 in Mississippi and roughly north of I-59 and I-20 in Alabama. There are active warnings across those areas as well.
* Checking the radar across East Mississippi and West Alabama this morning, there are a few showers and thunderstorms popping up in spots but these storms are not severe. A rain shower is moving across downtown Meridian as I write this blog.
* Plan accordingly: I strongly recommend if you and your family have not picked out a safe place in your home to go during severe weather, take a few minutes now while there is no active severe weather to find that safe place. Remember a small room, near the center, away from windows. A basement, a hallway, an interior bathroom, or an interior closet.
* We'll talk more about the severe weather threat on Good Morning Meridian at 6:00AM and don't forget us on the radio as Good Morning Meridian is now simulcast on 910 AM WALT. Josh and I are watching the weather situation and will have updates here on the 'blog and on television on Newscenter 11 and FOX Meridian.
High Risk Severe Weather Threat:
* Update from the Storm Prediction Center on the High Risk of severe weather for East Mississippi into Alabama. (See Josh's late night blog entry below for more details on the outline)
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007
...A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS ALSO FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TORNADOES...SOME WHICH MAY BE STRONG AND LONG TRACKED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THIS AREA IS IN A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
ALABAMA
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES.
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH VERY STRONG JET LEVEL WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE RAPIDLY TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE STORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT STORMS TO ROTATE AND SPAWN LONG TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES.
STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND GEORGIA....WHILE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
HIGH Risk
* The
SPC has upgraded us to a HIGH risk of severe weather. Here is the definition of a high risk area:
The HIGH risk area almost always means a major severe weather outbreak is expected, with great coverage of severe weather and enhanced likelihood of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or extreme convective wind events over a large area). Within a high risk area, expect at least 20 tornadoes with at least 2 of them rated F3+, or an extreme derecho causing 50+ widespread wind events (50+) with numerous higher end wind (80+ mph) and structural damage reports.
* High risks are rare and imply a dangerous outbreak of severe weather, so we want you to take this threat seriously. However, we do NOT want you to panic or be afraid. The odds of your home being struck by a tornado are quite small. Further, if you have a weather radio and a plan of action for when your county goes under a tornado warning, the odds of you being hurt get even lower. Be prepared, be ready, be informed, but do not be scared.
* Thunderstorms are in progress tonight across N MS. These are north of the warm front and are elevated in nature. So, these storms could drop some large hail, but will not have an appreciable tornado threat.
* That will change tomorrow morning. Warm, moist air will surge north throughout MS and AL, and thunderstorms will erupt. I believe this will occur along the I-55 corridor, sometime between 4-6 am. Those storms will quickly become severe and will move northeast through our area during the morning and early afternoon hours. Tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are possible as the storms push through. The timeframe of maximum concern here is from 8am-4pm, although storms could affect us a bit earlier than that, especially west of MS Hwy. 15.
* Stay tuned to Newscenter 11 and the Twin States Weather Blog throughout the day for updates on the weather situation...
Labels: Severe Weather
Severe Weather Update
* The 0z (Evening) run of the NAM is mostly complete. Here is some output of note, valid at 9:00 AM tomorrow morning:
Surface Based CAPE: 664.8 J/kg (sufficient)
0-3 KM Storm Rel. Helicity: 411.7 (high)
0-1 KM Storm Rel. Helicity: 353.5 (high)
850mb Winds: 50 knots (57.5 mph) (high)
* These numbers still lead me to believe there is a substantial threat of severe weather and tornadoes tomorrow. The best chance will come between 8am and 4pm...
* I think it is quite likely that the Storm Prediction Center will upgrade parts of MS/AL to a "High" risk with their 6z (midnight) Day 1 Outlook. I will post another update when that product is issued to highlight our latest thinking and discuss the SPC's thinking as well...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Special Weather Statement:
* Special Weather Statement from the NWS in Jackson:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
433 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LAST FROM ABOUT 4 AM UNTIL 2 PM THURSDAY.
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA
REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF A RAYVILLE TO GRENADA LINE.
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY IS EXPECTED OVER
EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A GRENADA TO
MERIDIAN LINE...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
EXPERIENCE VIOLENT WEATHER.
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD COME TO AN END
BEFORE SUNSET.
THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL IN
THAT THE WORST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER COULD START AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING RUSH HOURS INTO MID MORNING. PERSONS ARE URGED TO
CONSIDER THIS POSSIBILITY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION
SHOULD TORNADO WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Afternoon Update
* We are still on track for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes tomorrow...Here are our latest thoughts on each major part of the event:
Timing: This is very tricky. We will see a period of storms after midnight tonight, and some of those could be briefly severe. Then, we will see a second, much stronger and more dangerous wave of thunderstorms. That second round should come between 8:00pm and 4:00am...I wish I could get more specific, but it's just too tricky right now. I'll narrow it down tomorrow morning.
Location: All of our area will be under the gun. I do believe the absolute greatest threat will be along and east of US Highway 45, especially into Alabama. But, every county in this area faces a substantial threat of severe weather, including tornadoes.
Threats: The big threat is tornadoes. Low-level parameters are very favorable for the development of tornadoes, so that's our chief concern. We will also watch for damaging winds and large hail.
Limiting Factors: The key factor will be sun. If the sun comes out tomorrow and really heats up the atmosphere, that will make the atmosphere more unstable.
* I will update the blog again tonight, and of course we will have constant updates tomorrow morning. On television, I am preparing the forecast that will air tonight on Newscenter 11 at 5, 6, and 10pm. Chris Whited will join you tomorrow morning at 6:00am for Good Morning Meridian...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Severe Weather Outbreak Likely...
**1:21 PM: EDITED TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER**
* Warm, moist air will continue north out of the Gulf of Mexico tonight and tomorrow. As this is occurring, a deep trough will spin up and deepen a surface low in the Plains. Extremely favorable wind shear and ample instability will set the stage for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes tomorrow.
* In my opinion, the key to the severity of this event involves sunshine. If the sun comes out tomorrow morning, we could see a memorable tornado outbreak across Mississippi and Alabama. If the sun does not come out at all, we will still see severe weather, but the magnitude of the event would not be as great.
* The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked all of our area under a Moderate Risk for severe weather. We are also under a 45% "hatched" area, this is very rare and indicates that the SPC believes this could be a rather significant outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes.
* Here are some excerpts from the SPC's discussion:
MS/AL
MAXIMIZED SFC HEATING WILL COINCIDE WITH OPTIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAXIMIZE RISK FOR SVR
HAIL...WIND...AND IN PARTICULAR...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY REMAIN AOB 7 DEG C/KM...SFC DEW POINTS
SHOULD INCREASE INTO 60S F ALONG AND S OF MARINE FRONT. THIS WILL
SUPPORT POCKETS OF MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG...WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER OCCUR BEHIND EARLY-PERIOD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WAA
REGIME. THIS WILL BE SUITABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS -- 0-1 KM SRH AOA 300 J/KG -- AND 0-6 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING
60 KT. A FEW LONG-LIVED AND LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES AND RAPID NEWD
SPREAD OF FAVORABLE INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE.
* Let's talk specifics:
When: This is complex...A first round of elevated thunderstorms will affect us overnight, between midnight at 6 am...The main threat with those is hail, and most of them will stay below severe limits.
The more substantial threat arrives between roughly 10:00 am and 6:00 pm tomorrow. That's when we will see the possibility of tornadoes.
Where: Area-wide (Although I do think the greatest threat could very well evolve in Alabama)
Primary Threat: Tornadoes and Damaging Winds
What To Do: Stay close to a good source of weather information tomorrow morning...Be sure your NOAA weather radio is functioning properly, and discuss your plan of action in the event of a tornado warning with your family ahead of time.
* We will have more on the threat of severe weather through the day today and tonight...
Labels: Severe Weather
Severe Weather Threat Overnight and Thursday:
* Good morning everyone. First thing to catch my attention this morning is that the SPC has added a "MODERATE RISK" of severe weather on its Day 2 outlook for much of East Mississippi and Central and South Alabama.
* SPC Discussion for our area:
...ERN MS...AL...GA...
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...MID 60 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...CELLULAR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND 60-70 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND 20-30 KT 1KM SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES...SOME STRONG. THE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALONG AS THE JET SPREADS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.
* A few notes from the NWS Jackson's Hazardous Weather Outlook from last night:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH THE GREATEST RISK SHIFTING TO ALONG AND EAST OF THEINTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN EXPLOSIVE SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION AND PERSONS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA ARE URGED TO KEEP UPTO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS.
* Summary: Primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds with the risk of a few tornadoes. The tornado threat increases greatly if isolated storms start out ahead of a main line that will sweep through the Twin States Thursday evening.
* Plan accordingly: I strongly recommend if you and your family have not picked out a safe place in your home to go during severe weather, take a few minutes now while there is no active severe weather to find that safe place. Remember a small room, near the center, away from windows. A basement, a hallway, an interior bathroom, or an interior closet.
* We'll talk more about the severe weather threat on Good Morning Meridian at 6:00AM and don't forget to check Andrea and I out on the radio as Good Morning Meridian is now simulcast on 910 AM WALT. Josh will also have updates here on the 'blog and tonight at 5:00 and 6:00 on Newscenter 11.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
An Eye on Thursday...
* We continue to evaluate data regarding the threat of severe weather here on Thursday...Here are some quick bullet points:
- Deep upper trough
- Potent surface low to our northwest
- Ample surface-based instability (CAPE over 500) and moisture (dewpoints in the 60's)
- A limiting factor could be the extent of clouds and precipitation early Thursday...Those clouds and rain could stabilize the atmosphere
* SPC has outlooked a
large 30% hatched area on their latest Day 3 outlook...That is a worrisome percentage, a 30% hatched day 3 outlook is rare...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
EF Scale
* As mentioned on our news a few moments ago, the NWS has overhauled the Fujita scale. It's been replaced by the Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/ef-scale.html* Scroll down for great info on operating NOAA Weather Radios...
Labels: Weather News
Weather Radio...
* Here is a great piece on the pertinent operational info on NOAA Weather Radios, courtesy of Brian Peters and the ABC 33/40 Weather Blog...
(Please note that I have replaced the local Birmingham info with more applicable East MS/West AL info)
Here are a couple of pointers that I hope will help people decipher everything so that the radios will work as advertised when severe weather occurs.
Frequency or Channel:
The first thing everyone needs to understand is that there are seven (7) frequencies used nationwide by the National Weather Service (NWS). So the very first step is to make sure that you have the radio tuned to the right frequency or channel. These radios have good “receiver sensitivity,” technical words for “they hear really well.” For example, it is possible to pick up more than one broadcast in parts of Newton County. You may be able to receive both the Meridian transmitter and the Carthage transmitter.
But this is why it is so important to be on the correct transmitter. The Birmingham transmitter does not routinely broadcast warnings for Tuscaloosa County. So if you have your radio set to alarm for Tuscaloosa County but you are tuned to the Birmingham transmitter, your radio may never alarm for the warnings you set it for.
FIPS Codes:
The next important element is to program the radio with the correct FIPS code for each county for which you want to hear warnings. FIPS stands for Federal Information Processing System and is a series of codes unique to every one of the over 3,000 counties in the US. The FIPS code is a six-digit number that looks like 028075 which is the code for Lauderdale County Mississippi.
FIPS codes are actually composed of three pieces of information. The first digit is the portion of a county. Zero (0) means all of the county and the numbers 1 through 9 are used for a portion of a county such as the southwest portion. Only zero (0) is currently in use. The second two digits are the state code. The last three digits are the actual county number - 075 for Lauderdale, and so on. So a complete FIPS code for Lauderdale County Mississippi is 028075.
Good References:
A couple of good, quick references can be found at Alabama NWR coverage link and Mississippi NWR coverage link. This web page has seven columns of information including County Name, SAME#, NWR Transmitter, Freq. (Frequency,), Call Sign, Watts, and Remarks. The first four columns are the most important and contain the necessary information for programming a radio.
For those who may want something more graphical, coverage maps of each NWR transmitter can be found here. Click on a name on the map and it will link to the map of that particular transmitter showing the reliable reception area.
In this list, you may find a county listed twice or more. That means that the county is served by two (or more) NOAA Weather Radio transmitters. You will normally want to select the transmitter that is closest to your particular location. A word of caution - you won’t always get the best signal from the closest transmitter - most of the time you will. But various aspects to the radio frequencies used mean that you might not. So you should try each of the frequencies serving your county and determine which is the strongest signal at your location.
The links provided above are for Mississippi and Alabama. If you are interested in getting NOAA Weather Radio information for other areas of the United States, click here.
Testing:
The NWS tests the warning alarm feature every Wednesday, normally between 11 am and noon, weather permitting. You should make sure your radio activates properly during the weekly test. If the radio is tuned to the proper transmitter and you have programmed the correct FIPS code (or codes), then your radio should activate for the test and for warnings.
There are many variables which can affect a radio broadcast in the VHF (Very High Frequency) portion of the radio spectrum where NOAA Weather Radio is located. So please do all your homework and make sure the radio is working properly when the weather is good.
* You will want to make sure you weather radio is working properly before Thursday, as severe weather is likely across parts of Mississippi and Alabama. More on that threat tomorrow afternoon...
Labels: Weather Radio
Stormy Weather Returns Soon...
* After dealing with severe weather Saturday night, we are getting a welcome (but short-lived) break. The weather yesterday was absolutely beautiful, and more pleasant, sunny weather is in the cards for today, tomorrow, and most of Wednesday. Highs each day will reach the middle to upper 60's, with overnight lows falling into the upper 30's and lower 40's.
* Stormy Thursday? Computer model guidance shows a fairly robust moisture fetch coming off the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night, with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely through Thursday morning into the afternoon hours. If the computer model guidance is correct, we could be dealing with a threat of severe thunderstorms Thursday. Unlike this last event, instability is forecast to be sufficient, with impressive wind speeds aloft and ample wind shear values.
* We have selected a new weekend meteorologist, but the face will not be new to you. Her name is Ashley McDonald; she is the same Ashley that helped us out on a temporary basis in December and January. Ashley hails from north Georgia, and we are excited to have her join the team. Her first weekend on-air will be the weekend of March 10.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Lower Ninth Ward Rebuilding...
I ran across
this article this evening - it's great to see signs of life in that part of New Orleans. While downtown, the French Quarter, and some of the suburbs are back to normal, there are parts of the city that still stand vacant and abandoned. Hopefully, this is a step in the right direction in the Crescent City!
Labels: Hurricane Katrina
*It was refreshing to see the sunshine and beautiful weather today after a very long and stormy evening last night. Expect another lovely day tomorrow and Tuesday as high pressure keeps us dry with temps nearing 70 degrees in the afternoon!!
Josh mentioned last night on the blog that tonight will be my last broadcast at WTOK. I have decided to move back closer to my hometown in KY and I am oh so excited to get back to the Bluegrass state!! Although, I have met so many wonderful people here in Meridian and thanks to everyone for your support and encouragement! Take care!
P.S.-Try not to give Josh and Chris TOO much of a hard time! lol.
Signing off....
EF1 Strikes Newton County
* The National Weather Service has determined that the damage in Newton County was caused by an EF (Enhanced Fujita) 1 tornado.
* Here is the statement from NWS Jackson:
1040 PM TORNADO 8 W NEWTON 32.32N 89.30W
02/24/2007 F1 NEWTON MS NWS STORM SURVEY
THIS TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALONG PONDEROSA RD, 4 W OF
LAWRENCE, AN TRACKED NE FOR 3.5 MILES. THE TORNADO
PARALLELED I-20 FOR A SHORT WHILE THEN CROSSED I-20 JUST
W OF MILE MARKER 101. NUMEROUS HARDWOOD TREES WERE
UPROOTED WITH NUMEROUS PINES SNAPPED. SEVERAL LARGE PINES
BLOCKED THE E BOUND LANES OF I-20. PATH WIDTH WAS 150 YDS
AND WAS RATED EF-1.
Labels: Storm Reports
Putting This One To Bed..
* The threat of severe weather has ended in our area, as the line of thunderstorms continues to move to our east. We made it through relatively unscathed, although we did have some sporadic wind damage across most of the area. At this time, we have no reports of injuries. For that, we can be thankful.
* So far, the hardest hit place seems to be the town of Dumas, Arkansas. I have actually spent a few hours in Dumas. I was part of a storm chase team from Mississippi State, and we chased storms in the Arkansas Delta, and ended up eating at the Sonic Drive-Inn in Dumas. For you MSU football fans, former MSU punter (and old friend) Robert Wallis was a part of that trip. Just a random rambling in this early morning post after a long day.
* Thanks for reading...We know the internet has many places to get weather information, and we are glad you have chosen this blog. We hope it is beneficial.
* I hope I am not spilling the beans early, but I think you should know that Sunday night's newscast will be Lauren Raymer's last one here at WTOK. She is taking a job at a TV station in Lexington, Kentucky, close to her hometown. We are very proud of her and wish her the best of luck in her future work. If you'd like to drop her a note, feel free:
Lauren.Raymer@wtok.comLauren's replacement has already been chosen, but that is a blog topic for another day! Hope you have a wonderful Sunday.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
*TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR GREENE COUNTY until 1230 am.
*New SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY. This includes the town of Butler until 1245am.
The severe threat is now moving into our counties in West Alabama...
Damage extends from Newton and Winston couties into Pickens county with numerous trees down from a possible tornado.
Power Out
* We took a power hit and were knocked off air...We are working to get back on as soon as possible...
* Here's the latest...Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are in effect for
Jones,
Lauderdale, and
Clarke County, MS....Damaging winds are possible, along with frequent lightning...
*
Tornado Warning continues for northern Greene County...This storm moved out of Sumter County...
* We are working feverishly to get our equipment ready to begin broadcasting again...
Labels: Severe Weather
