Weekend Ramblings...
After a lovely dinner at CiCi's Pizza (both cheap and good) I'm back here in the weather center, watching some Forest Gump on ABC and getting ready for the news at 10. Some very tough challenges in the forecast ahead, especially in the medium and long range. We will get right to it...
*Sunday through Monday...
Sunday looks wet! A shortwave moving in to the area and the main surface low in the Gulf will produce rain across East Mississippi and West Alabama. I think rainfall amounts will be around a half inch, though some locations could see a little more. I don't think we'll see any severe weather with this system, though the possibility exists for some small hail because of the very cold temperatures aloft. This isn't a big threat, and I won't mention it in the forecast at this time. By late Sunday and overnight Sunday, rain will begin to diminish across the area, and I think most of the rain will be gone by Monday morning. We can expect clearing conditions Monday and much cooler Monday afternoon and evening...
*Tuesday through Friday...
Looks very chilly! As Josh mentioned earlier, some sources are forecasting temperatures in the middle 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday, but there will be no way we will reach 50! Some locations in north MS will stay in the 30s all day. I think we'll see the middle 40s around here. By Tuesday night and Wednesday a few models want to bring a shortwave into the area, and with so much cold air in place, I am a little concerned about some wintry weather. We will see if the models are consistent with this tomorrow, and I might introduce that idea in the forecast. Talking with Chief Meteorologist Josh Johnson tonight, he had an excellent point in saying that the GFS has a bias of splitting a trough, and the piece of energy that it lags back will become our shortwave and our possible wintry weather. If this does not occur, we will see just some clouds on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday begin a 'warm up' with temperatures back in the lower to middle 50s, still about 10 degrees below normal for the first week of March.
*The long range...
Temperatures look downright cold for the first 2 weeks of March. Whenever you have this much cold air in place with a trough in the East, the pattern will favor at least one or two chances of wintry weather. We will keep a close eye on this, so stay tuned to WTOK!
I'll have another update tomorrow, and I'll have more tonight and tomorrow at 10!
Watching Next Week...
* 12z Computer Model guidance has completed, and there are some very interesting developments since last night. Most of which concern the possibility of a mid-week winter weather threat across the Deep South. Here's the latest:
* Both the 6z (midnight) and 12z (6am) runs of the GFS show a shortwave bringing precipitation to the lower Mississippi Valley, with cold air in place. Here are the two frames showing this:
6z GFS Valid Midnight Tuesday Night12z GFS Valid Midnight Tuesday night* IF it was only the GFS showing this, I would probably not even mention it. But, there are other models out there that support the
possibility of some wintry precipitation across the Southeast. But, the NOGAPS model and the UKMET model both support this solution to varying degrees. So, I believe the possibility is worth a mention.
* The NAM, generally our most accurate model, does not show any precipitation, wintry or wet. So, you can see the difficulty in deciding in which model to believe and base your forecast. Please understand, I am NOT forecasting snow for us. I'm just mentioning the possibilities at this point. If the models continue to better come together on a solution, then I will amend the forecast accordingly. But, for now, let's just stick with it being an interesting possibility. We'll watch it...
* I am willing to guarantee a turn to much colder weather by late Monday and especially Tuesday. Tuesday will be a very cold and blustery day. Again, I know you have seen forecasts from other sources calling for temperatures in the 60's on Tuesday. And again, I still believe those forecasts to be way off. But, we'll see. Hope you have a wonderful weekend!
Evening Update
* Just finished main weather. We've been having some issues with our chromakey wall for the last week or so. But, we have managed to get a temporary fix. Hopefully, things will be back to normal soon.
* Lots of weather on the docket for the next seven days. First, tomorrow will feature sunshine with only a few high cirrus clouds. Temperatures will be rather comfortable, with highs in the middle 60's.
* Changes begin Sunday, as an area of low pressure tracks across southern Mississippi. Rain will fall at times Sunday morning, then we'll taper off to showers later Sunday afternoon. Still believe the heaviest rain falls north of U.S. Highway 82...
* Cold front moves through Monday afternoon. Colder air slams into the Deep South behind this front, and temperatures Tuesday will probably stay in the 40's all day. Wednesday will also be chilly. We're watching a wave of low pressure forecast to track through the Gulf of Mexico during the middle of next week. Looks like we'll see some light rain with this. At this time, it looks too warm for any wintry precipitation. Of course, we'll monitor it closely...
* Overall pattern favors cold snaps and unsettled weather for the first two weeks of March. I hope ALL of you enjoy the weekend! Derek Kinkade will post to the 'blog this weekend, check it out!
Ready for the Weekend!
* Had a great time visiting with the tour group from Philadelphia Elementary this morning. They visited us up at the station, and I think they had a good time. We'll have video of their visit tonight at 5:00 and 6:00!
* Also was nice to visit with Joe Chance this afternoon. Joe is the former City Administrator of the City of Livingston, in Sumter County. We had a nice conversation about weather and how we can better serve the needs of our viewers. Great stuff, and I hope to implement some of the ideas we discussed.
* Tomorrow looks dry and warm, with temperatures in the 60's. I'll be heading to Mobile, Alabama to visit with some friends down there, so I'll certainly appreciate the calm weather. Get out and enjoy Saturday, because rain is on the way for Sunday. The heaviest rain will likely be north of us, up near the Mississippi/Tennessee state line, but we'll see our share of the rain Sunday afternoon.
* Sticking with the idea that we see a change to much colder air in here by Monday afternoon and Tuesday. I have seen some forecasts from other weather sources showing temperatures Monday and Tuesday in the 60's. I think this is dead wrong. Monday, we may hit 60, but it will be in the MORNING. Temperatures Monday afternoon will begin to fall quickly through the 50's into the 40's by sunset. Maybe even colder. Tuesday, we won't get close to 60. We might not even get to 50! In fact, our forecast for Tuesday will probably feature highs in the middle to upper 40's. Not saying that other forecasts are wrong, just making sure that you know who said what!
* Have received a decent response from those wanting to see a Weather Discussion Video. I'm going to be working on getting that operational in the next couple of weeks. Leave a comment below if you would be interested in seeing it. I think weather enthusiasts and people from all walks of life would really find it interesting!
Dry For Now...
* Today and tomorrow will both feature dry weather and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures both days will get into the lower 60's.
* Still believe we'll see a return to much colder weather next week. Tuesday we'll probably stay in the upper 40's all day, with a stiff northerly wind making it feel even colder.
* As far as any winter weather threat next week, we still can't say for sure. Right now, I think we'll see rain with a storm system passing through around mid-week. It just looks too warm for any wintry weather. Out beyond that, the first two weeks of March will feature a roller-coaster ride of weather.
* Will post again this afternoon, around 2:30!
Looking Down the Road...
* 0z model run has completed and I have analyzed it. The biggest change in our forecast was to increase rain chances for Sunday. See the previous post for an update on that.
* Still looking at next week for a return to much colder weather. The jury is still out on any winter storm threat, but again, I would not be surprised if somewhere in the Southeast saw accumulating snow or ice in the next 10 days. The 0z run of the GFS paints a snowy picture from Memphis to Chattanooga towards the end of next week. But, there is still considerable spread in the model output, so our forecast remains murky.
Evening Update and Video Possibilities!
* Have updated our forecast to increase rain chances for Sunday. The 0z runs of both the NAM and GFS indicate more precipitation:
NAM Forecast Valid 6pm Sunday
GFS Forecast Valid 6pm Sunday* Updated the 'blog to include a Links section (located just to the right of this message)...If you have any cool sites you would like to see on the Links page, send me an e-mail at josh.johnson@wtok.com...I'll continue to work on adding some more.
* One more thing -- I'm considering doing a video update each day -- a technical discussion of the nuts and bolts behind our forecast...A detailed look at the models and trends that shape our forecast. I want to know if there is enough interest in this to warrant doing it...If you would be interested in watching such a video, leave a COMMENT below and let me know. If there's a good bit of interest in it, I would LOVE to do it...
* Still watching the March 1-10 time frame. The new run of the European model isn't AS favorable for any wintry precipitation next week. But, it still shows a low in the gulf with chilly air in place. However, the overall pattern still favors the POSSIBILITY of a winter weather threat somewhere in the Deep South. Could be north of us, could be south of us; it's just too early to tell right now! These models will flip-flop all over the place before converging on the correct solution. I'll post a quick update whenever the 0z GFS finishes (around 11:30pm).
Winter Mischief?
* Updated forecast to raise rain chances Sunday!
* Had a great time visiting with the kids at Neshoba Central Elementary School. The teachers, students and staff were all very pleasant, and Charles and I appreciate the opportunity to present our weather program! If you are interested in us doing a program at YOUR school, drop me an e-mail at josh.johnson@wtok.com!
* Still watching showers moving east along the Mississippi River. I believe most of the rain will dry up before reaching us, but we'll probably see a few isolated showers and patchy drizzle this evening. Best chance of rain along and south of I-20.
* Saturday looks mostly dry, with a few high clouds. A few showers out there on Sunday. Still get the idea that we will turn much colder on Monday and into Tuesday. We'll probably spend much of Tuesday in the 40's!
* VERY interesting possibilities shaping up for next week. The European computer model is showing a low developing in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, with Arctic air sliding southward.
Although this is a snow setup for the South, many questions regarding the exact details remain. How far south will the cold air make it? How far north will the moisture make it? The answers to these questions will determine the extent of any winter storm threat. As we talked about Friday, the overall pattern is one that favors a winter storm threat across the Southeast.
The GFS model shows only rain late next week, with the cold air lagging behind. Interestingly, the GFS hints at a later winter storm threat, somewhere in the March 5-9 time frame. Speculation and discussion of these possibilities will headline this space over the next several days. Stay tuned!
It's That Time of Year...
I'll be on the road quite a bit over the next 10 days or so. Here's how the schedule is working out:
* Tomorrow: Visiting with two groups of students up at Neshoba Central Elementary tomorrow morning. As part of the deal, Charles and I get to eat a big lunch up there! Very good stuff!
* Friday: Eating lunch with Joe Chance, the former City Administrator for the city of Livingston. Joe is an avid weather enthusiast with a lot of great ideas about covering weather around here. Definitely looking forward to hearing his thoughts!
* March 2: I'll be headed over to Jackson for the Emergency Management/Media Workshop. Its an annual meeting coordinated by the National Weather Service in Jackson. They have some great speakers, and we all get to discuss the strong and weak points of the NWS' products. It is a great way for us to express feedback to the NWS, which allows them to better meet our needs and vice versa. Really an all-around great experience, and I'm looking forward to going over there for that.
* March 4-6: Headed to Starkville, MS for the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium. Some of the brightest minds in the entire business will be presenting at this year's Symposium. As part of Symposium, a group of meteorologists from around Mississippi and Alabama enjoy the fine tradition of eating at the LITTLE DOOEY in Starkville. Great BBQ and great company, it's quickly becoming a yearly tradition. It will also be nice to catch up with other MSU alumni at the Symposium. If you are interested, check out the website:
Southeast Severe Storms SymposiumOf course, all of these trips are WEATHER PERMITTING. And, I get the idea that the weather could get pretty interesting around the first weekend of March. More on that tomorrow...
Severe Threat Diminishing
* The threat of severe weather is rapidly diminishing across east Mississippi and west Alabama. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch we were under has been allowed to expire. Heavy rain will continue sweeping across the Deep South for the next several hours. The rain will begin to taper off here by midnight.
* We've been having some issues with our FirstWarn map and crawl display today. But, I believe we've managed to iron most of the problems out and hopefully the software will perform better from now on.
* We've had a GREAT response to the weblog. In fact, we've seen almost one thousand hits by over 400 unique visitors since Friday afternoon! Thanks for your interest, and I hope that the 'blog is as interesting to read as it is to write.
* Time to go, it's time to do "Final Weather" -- the forecast we do for the evening hours at the end of the 6:00 news...Will post later tonight around 9:30.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
* A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for many of our Mississippi counties. The watch is roughly along and south of Mississippi Highway 16, and includes Meridian, Newton, Quitman, Waynesboro, and Bay Springs. Here's the watch information:
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Watching Storms...
* Still keeping an eye on the radar. Most of the activity has been to our west, in northern Louisiana and into the Mississippi Delta. A few severe thunderstorm warnings have been isssued out there.
* New Day 1 Outlook continues to place us in a "Slight Risk" for severe storms. Again, hail and perhaps a widely isolated damaging wind report are the primary threats.
SPC Day 1 Outlook* Thunderstorms will probably get going southwest of Meridian starting this afternoon. Our instability is limited, but the upper atmospheric dynamics are more impressive than yesterday. The rain and storms will overspread all of the area later today and into tonight. Heavy rain is possible.
* Increasing evidence of an intrusion of much colder air in here in the next two weeks. I'll do a very detailed analysis of this threat in a post to come later this afternoon.
* Will be heading into work soon to man the post in the event of severe weather...
Late Night Update
* Watching The
X-Files as I write this update. As I watch, I'm enjoying a nice glass of Orange Juice. These are two of my favorite things. Ahhh, the strange hours this job forces me to keep!
* The Storm Prediction Center has placed a large part of our area under a "Slight Risk" for severe thunderstorms tomorrow. I get the idea that the storms will affect primarily areas along and south of I-20. The primary threat will again be some small hail. The instability is not as great as it was yesterday, but the upper-level dynamics are more favorable. Still, the setup appears rather marginal to me. But, as always, we'll keep an eye on it. Here's the new Day 1 Outlook, issued at midnight:
6z SPC Day 1 Outlook
Rain on the Way
Forecast Notes:
* Severe weather was minimal across the area today. A check across east Mississippi and west Alabama shows we only had one severe weather report. Dixons Mill, in Clarke County, reported 1" hail in a thunderstorm earlier this evening.
* Rain looks like it will arrive later rather than sooner tomorrow. Most of the day will feature cloudy skies and scattered showers, with the heavy rain likely not arriving until late afternoon and into Wednesday evening.
* A large number of possibilities for the next 7-10 days. Still get the idea we'll see a change to colder weather in that time frame.
A Few Warnings...
* Seen two severe thunderstorm warnings in our area tonight: Marengo County, Alabama and Clarke County, Alabama. As or 7:20, we have received no reports of any significant damage from these storms. I would imagine though, that someone likely saw some hail over in west Alabama with these storms.
* Still keeping a close eye on the storms over near Jackson. They seem to be losing strength, but we've got our eye on it.
Quick Update
UPDATE: The SPC has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for a strip of central Mississippi into western Alabama:
Mesoscale Discussion 204
The thinking now remains much the same, that thunderstorms could get going along the frontal boundary this afternoon. And, if they do develop, some of them could briefly put down some large hail. Here's the Day 1 Outlook from SPC:
New SPC Day 1 OutlookIt appears as though our atmosphere is still being "capped" -- a layer of warm aloft that suppresses vertical thunderstorm development. If the cap breaks, we'll get some storms...If not, we'll stay dry. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out...
Busy Times...
* The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for our west Alabama counties:
Mesoscale Discussion 202Still nothing showing up on radar in Mississippi or west Alabama. Still, I believe we'll see some activity begin to fire in the next few hours.
* Doing weather live from the Temple Theater tonight during Live at Five! But, if watches and warnings really start flying, we'll be back in the studio. Never a dull moment around here...
Severe Weather Possible
*** Having some issues logging in to update our weather content at www.wtok.com/weather. I'm working on this and will try to post Tuesday's update as soon as possible. ***
* Still get the idea that we'll see a few severe thunderstorms along and south of the I-20 corridor today. The Storm Prediction Center has shifted the Slight Risk northward to include all of our viewing area:
SPC Day 1 Outlook Issued at 10:30 AM* Each day, the NWS in Jackson sends up a balloon to measure temperature, dewpoint, and other variables at different levels of the atmosphere. Here are some highlights of the 12z sounding from Jackson:
CAPE 441
LI -3.0 (Anything negative is unstable)
SRH 153.8 (Measure of shear in the lowest 3km of atmosphere)
* I'll be heading into work early today to monitor the severe weather threat. Already watching some cumulus clouds developing down around Quitman, Waynesboro, and Hattiesburg.
Storms Tomorrow, Cold on the Horizon...
More Forecast Notes:
* Still looking at the possibility of some thunderstorms developing along and just south of I-20 tomorrow. Computer model guidance continues to show major differences in the amount of available instability. The NAM model spits out some very impressive CAPE:
NAM CAPE Forecast PanelI sure get the idea that the NAM is overestimating the CAPE. But, that being said, we'll probably see some thunderstorms pop up along the I-20 corridor tomorrow.
The primary threat will be small hail, and we do not anticipate widespread severe weather. However, there is a chance we could see some severe thunderstorm watches and warnings tomorrow, so be ready!
* More rain Wednesday. The GFS again tonight is showing over one inch of rain falling across the area Wednesday afternoon. Flooding could be a problem; we'll have to monitor this closely.
* A fun pattern setting up for the end of the month. The NAO is forecast to drop off the bottom of the charts. A negative NAO often leads to a deep trough in the east, which allows Arctic air to spill southward. Here's the NAO Forecast:
Beyond that, the GFS and European long range model guidance supports the general idea of a deep trough in the East and return to colder weather by the end of the month. Couple this cold air with an active subtropical jet stream, and we could get a real reminder that winter isn't over yet!
Quick Evening Update
* Just finished eating dinner. The chicken sandwich from Sonic is a very underrated culinary cuisine. But, I am getting off-topic.
* Watching thunderstorms continuing across northern Mississippi and northern Alabama. Severe thunderstorm warnings have been limited to northern Alabama, north of Birmingham.
* Thunderstorm risk will have to be watched for tomorrow afternoon along and south of I-20.
* Will post later tonight about mounting evidence of a cold snap to come!
Severe Weather? Cold Weather? Exciting times...
Forecast Notes:
* I am a little concerned about the threat of a few severe thunderstorms over southern parts of the area tomorrow. The NAM computer model forecasts our CAPE to be upwards of 3000 J/kg (anything above 1000 J/kg is considered ripe for thunderstorm development).
12z NAM CAPE ForecastCAPE stands for "Convective Available Potential Energy", and we use it to assess the instability in our atmosphere. The higher the number, the more likely we'll see thunderstorms. But, I think that the NAM is overdoing the CAPE for tomorrow, and that we'll only see isolated thunderstorms develop.
* There could be some small hail in any storms that develop, but the threat of widespread severe weather is low. The best chance of strong storms will be along and south of a line from Raleigh to Quitman to Butler, Alabama.
* The heaviest rain will probably fall Wednesday afternoon and night. There could be some thunderstorms involved then as well, but again, the threat of widespread severe weather is low. We'll keep an eye on it.
* Our big concern is the possibility of flooding. This morning's run of the GFS computer model spits out well over one inch of rain:
12z GFS Valid at 6 PM Wednesday
* Still looking at the possibility of a return to much colder air by the end of the month. The NAO is still forecast to go off the chart negative, which leads me to believe we'll see a dump of cold air in here by the last week of February into the first week of March. Couple that cold air with the active and moist southern branch of the jet stream, and snow and ice fans just might have something to keep an eye on!
SPC Slight Risk
Quick update...
The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of southern Mississippi under a "Slight Risk" for severe thunderstorms for tomorrow...
SPC Day 2 OutlookWill post a full forecast update later this afternoon.
New Type of Warning
Got an e-mail last week from Jim Butch, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Jackson. Jackson is going to be a test site in a plan to issue warnings differently. The new plan will issue warnings using a polygon rather than a county. This will allow the NWS to better pinpoint areas under the gun.
Here's how Jim explains it:
"Beginning this season the Jackson Office is a test site for what are called Polygon warnings. Basically we will be issuing warnings based on the movement and the science of the storm without regard to county/state borders.
When a severe storm is identified we will construct a box/polygon of our best guess of what area will be affected by the storm. Then, out warning software will take this box and issued for the counties or parts of counties contained in the polygon. The latitude and longitude of the points on the polygon will disseminated at the bottom
of the warning.
I am told there is software available to plot this polygon. The reason we are testing the polygon warnings is to try to reduce the False Alarm Area currently being experienced by our county warnings.
As an example: Let's suppose a storm is moving across northern Hinds...southern Madison...and northern Rankin counties. In the past everyone in these three counties would be alerted even though only a small portion of those three counties would be affected.
Polygons may eventually give us the capability of only alarming those who are going to be affected by the storm."
Monday AM Quick Forecast Notes:
* Could see some thunderstorms in here tomorrow, with more widespread rain possible by Wednesday...
* Still anticipating a return to much colder weather in 7-10 days. The NAO is off-the-charts negative, check it out:
NAO* Will post later this afternoon with a detailed look at the interesting possibilities for the end of February into the beginning of March.
Weekend Forecast Notes
Derek Kinkade, weekend meteorologist here, just sitting back and doing some homework (for those of you who don't know, I am still in school at Mississippi State University -- I commute here on the weekends to do the weather). I finished the forecast earlier this afternoon, and it looks wet! A few notes...
*Monday evening and Tuesday look relatively dry with only slight chances of showers or storms.
*Looks like our heaviest rain amounts will come Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with another area of heavier rain coming in Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Some locations could see over an inch of rain out of this.
*It will be very difficult to pinpoint the exact timing of rain out of this wet pattern. What will determine this is the track of shortwaves, or kinks in the upper-level flow. These shortwaves sometimes provide just the uplift needed to initiate showers and thunderstorms, and they will be very difficult to track. Stay tuned to WTOK-TV every morning with Charles Daniel and in the evenings with Josh Johnson for full updates on the forecast!
*Pattern still looks very cold toward the end of the month and the first week of March. There is a major trough over Japan, and as Josh mentioned in a previous post, when that happens 6-10 days down the road we can have a trough in the Eastern U.S. Also, other teleconnections like the NAO and AO are forecast to go sharply negative (that means cold air in the East!) Now we must keep in mind with the NAO and the AO that we are basing a forecast on a forecast, which doesn't always work out! The trough in Japan though gives me a little more confidence in a cold forecast here in 7 days or so, however. Stay tuned, things could get pretty chilly around here!
Thats about all for now. Got some homework to finish up, and will be doing the morning forecast update soon. Got a long drive back to Starkville after the news!
Derek Kinkade
Football and Forecast Notes
Football: Just finished a PlayStation 2 football marathon with our director Chris Brennaman and our weekend meteorologist Derek Kinkade. Here's how the games shook out:
Chris (USM) 31
Josh (ALA) 24
Derek (Iowa) 31
Chris (USM) 8
Josh (ALA) 30
Derek (Utah) 10
So, we all finished with 1 win and 1 loss.
Forecast Notes:
* Still looks wet for the first part of next week. Latest model data shifts the heaviest rain into Tuesday through early Thursday time frame. Models will continue to struggle with this complex southwesterly flow aloft pattern.
* Starting to get the idea that next weekend could feature a return to colder air. The European model guidance and GFS model guidance both support a deep trough in the eastern U.S. around next Sunday.
* Increasing indications that the end of the month could feature some more cold air. We are watching closely the trough currently developing over Japan. Troughs forming in that part of the world can be a signal of a trough forming in the Southeast in 10-14 days. This is one example of a
teleconnection
, where we use conditions in other parts of the world to try and forecast our weather (NAO is another teleconnection, scroll down a few posts for more info on NAO).
* Enjoy what's left of the weekend! Derek Kinkade will be along later today to update the BLOG!
