Twin States Weather Blog

New Type of Warning

Got an e-mail last week from Jim Butch, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Jackson. Jackson is going to be a test site in a plan to issue warnings differently. The new plan will issue warnings using a polygon rather than a county. This will allow the NWS to better pinpoint areas under the gun.

Here's how Jim explains it:

"Beginning this season the Jackson Office is a test site for what are called Polygon warnings. Basically we will be issuing warnings based on the movement and the science of the storm without regard to county/state borders.

When a severe storm is identified we will construct a box/polygon of our best guess of what area will be affected by the storm. Then, out warning software will take this box and issued for the counties or parts of counties contained in the polygon. The latitude and longitude of the points on the polygon will disseminated at the bottom
of the warning.

I am told there is software available to plot this polygon. The reason we are testing the polygon warnings is to try to reduce the False Alarm Area currently being experienced by our county warnings.

As an example: Let's suppose a storm is moving across northern Hinds...southern Madison...and northern Rankin counties. In the past everyone in these three counties would be alerted even though only a small portion of those three counties would be affected.

Polygons may eventually give us the capability of only alarming those who are going to be affected by the storm."

Monday AM Quick Forecast Notes:

* Could see some thunderstorms in here tomorrow, with more widespread rain possible by Wednesday...

* Still anticipating a return to much colder weather in 7-10 days. The NAO is off-the-charts negative, check it out:

NAO

* Will post later this afternoon with a detailed look at the interesting possibilities for the end of February into the beginning of March.

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 10:57 AM