Twin States Weather Blog

Weekend Forecast Notes

Derek Kinkade, weekend meteorologist here, just sitting back and doing some homework (for those of you who don't know, I am still in school at Mississippi State University -- I commute here on the weekends to do the weather). I finished the forecast earlier this afternoon, and it looks wet! A few notes...

*Monday evening and Tuesday look relatively dry with only slight chances of showers or storms.

*Looks like our heaviest rain amounts will come Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with another area of heavier rain coming in Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Some locations could see over an inch of rain out of this.

*It will be very difficult to pinpoint the exact timing of rain out of this wet pattern. What will determine this is the track of shortwaves, or kinks in the upper-level flow. These shortwaves sometimes provide just the uplift needed to initiate showers and thunderstorms, and they will be very difficult to track. Stay tuned to WTOK-TV every morning with Charles Daniel and in the evenings with Josh Johnson for full updates on the forecast!

*Pattern still looks very cold toward the end of the month and the first week of March. There is a major trough over Japan, and as Josh mentioned in a previous post, when that happens 6-10 days down the road we can have a trough in the Eastern U.S. Also, other teleconnections like the NAO and AO are forecast to go sharply negative (that means cold air in the East!) Now we must keep in mind with the NAO and the AO that we are basing a forecast on a forecast, which doesn't always work out! The trough in Japan though gives me a little more confidence in a cold forecast here in 7 days or so, however. Stay tuned, things could get pretty chilly around here!

Thats about all for now. Got some homework to finish up, and will be doing the morning forecast update soon. Got a long drive back to Starkville after the news!

Derek Kinkade

posted by Anonymous @ 8:45 PM