Twin States Weather Blog

Severe Weather? Cold Weather? Exciting times...

Forecast Notes:

* I am a little concerned about the threat of a few severe thunderstorms over southern parts of the area tomorrow. The NAM computer model forecasts our CAPE to be upwards of 3000 J/kg (anything above 1000 J/kg is considered ripe for thunderstorm development).

12z NAM CAPE Forecast

CAPE stands for "Convective Available Potential Energy", and we use it to assess the instability in our atmosphere. The higher the number, the more likely we'll see thunderstorms. But, I think that the NAM is overdoing the CAPE for tomorrow, and that we'll only see isolated thunderstorms develop.

* There could be some small hail in any storms that develop, but the threat of widespread severe weather is low. The best chance of strong storms will be along and south of a line from Raleigh to Quitman to Butler, Alabama.

* The heaviest rain will probably fall Wednesday afternoon and night. There could be some thunderstorms involved then as well, but again, the threat of widespread severe weather is low. We'll keep an eye on it.

* Our big concern is the possibility of flooding. This morning's run of the GFS computer model spits out well over one inch of rain:

12z GFS Valid at 6 PM Wednesday

* Still looking at the possibility of a return to much colder air by the end of the month. The NAO is still forecast to go off the chart negative, which leads me to believe we'll see a dump of cold air in here by the last week of February into the first week of March. Couple that cold air with the active and moist southern branch of the jet stream, and snow and ice fans just might have something to keep an eye on!

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 2:55 PM