First Night Ends...
* Heard some great speakers at SECAPS tonight. The keynote address was from Dr. Frank Marks, and included several new technological advances in hurricane forecasting. They have some really interesting developments on the way; things that will lead to better hurricane forecasts.
* Had a nice seafood dinner at one of my favorites: Original Oyster House. It's been great to catch up with some old friends (great weather info and some seafood never hurts either!).
* Sorry to be brief, but I must go to bed. We get started tomorrow at 8:00AM!
Friday Night Lights
Derek Kinkade here tonight filling in for Josh while he is at the conference in Mobile. Looks like some good stuff! I will be looking forward to seeing more posts from him after they conclude business tonight...
On to our weather business...
* Looks like an absolutely perfect weekend, if you like spring weather! We don't have any rain in the forecast, partly cloudy skies, and highs near 80 for Saturday and Sunday. Definitely try to get outside and enjoy it!
* Our next rain chances come Monday and Tuesday in the form of a powerful spring storm system that is set to affect the area. A strong negatively tilted trough will roll in here by Monday afternoon, setting the stage for possible severe weather. It is still way to early to talk about specifics with this system. We will keep a close eye on things Saturday and Sunday. Right now it seems as if the surface low is tracking a little too far north for a big outbreak of severe weather around here. In any case, I think we see a squall line moving through the state sometime Monday evening/night, and with that I'm sure we could see damaging winds and extremely heavy rainfall. If any storms fire ahead of the line, its conceivable that they could rotate. Again, way too early to tell on this one. Check back, and we will have more updates on this event as the weekend progresses.
* Heavy rain will be a threat from this system regardless. There could be an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain from this system in places that do not need the rainfall. Again, this is a changing situation and we will keep a close eye on it all weekend.
SECAPS
* I'm writing from the Coastal Weather Research Center at the University of South Alabama. The university and their meteorology program are hosting SECAPS - Southeast Coastal and Atmospheric Processes Symposium. Here's the agenda for the evening:
SECAPS Agenda* I'll try to update again tonight when things are over. We will hear from some very bright minds in meteorology - tropical weather expert Dr. Keith Blackwell, who teaches at USA; Dr. Frank Marks, the Director of the Hurricane Research Division of the National Hurricane Center, among others! I'm particularly looking forward to hearing from Dr. Loren White from Jackson State. Dr. White is speaking about the initial phase of the Mississippi Mesonet Project. Like I've written in this space before, a mesonet would be a HUGE step forward for Mississippi.
* Still concerned about severe weather late Monday into Tuesday. The worst of it could be a bit north of us, but it's too early to speculate. We'll keep you posted.
Odds and Ends...
* The NWS has determined that the tornado that hit Smith County was an F3 on the Fujita scale. Here's their official report:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
515 PM CST WED APR 7 2005
...PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT ON MIZE AREA OF SMITH COUNTY...
HERE IS SOME UPDATED INFORMATION REGARDING THE TORNADO IN THAT AFFECTED THE MIZE AREA IN SMITH COUNTY.
THE TORNADO PRODUCED MAXIMUM DAMAGE OF F3...A STRONG TORNADO ON THE FUJITA SCALE WITH WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 158 TO 206 MPH. THE TORNADO TRACK STARTED IN NORTHWEST COVINGTON COUNTY...JUST SOUTH OF THE SMITH COUNTY LINE AND ABOUT 1 MILE NORTH OF MOUNT OLIVE. START TIME IS ABOUT 1010 AM CDT. THE TORNADO MOVED INTO SMITH
COUNTY AROUND 1013 AM...THEN MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF MIZE.
THE MIZE ATTENDANCE CENTER (SCHOOL) WAS AFFECTED BY BASEBALL SIZED HAIL ABOUT 5 MINUTES BEFORE THE TORNADO STRUCK AT 1025 AM. THE TOP FLOOR OF THE BRICK STRUCTURE WAS NEARLY DEMOLISHED. THREE MOBILE BUILDINGS WERE DESTROYED. NEARLY EVERY TREE IN THE AREA WAS EITHER SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. SMALL OUTBUILDINGS WERE TOTALLY DESTROYED.
SCHOOL OFFICIALS STATED THAT THEY RECEIVED PLENTY OF ADVANCE NOTICE OF THE APPROACHING TORNADO FROM THE NWS WARNING ON NOAA WEATHER RADIO TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT THE STUDENTS/STAFF.
ADDITIONAL STRONG TORNADO DAMAGE WAS FOUND TO THE NORTHEAST OF MIZE...WITH ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF F3 DAMAGE TO TREES AND FARM BUILDINGS ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH OF CENTER RIDGE. EXTENSIVE F1 AND F2 DAMAGE WAS SEEN ALONG MOST OF THE PATH AT IT EXTENDED TO JUST SOUTH OF SYLVARENA...AND THE PATH REACHED A WIDTH OF AT LEAST 600 YARDS.
NORTHEAST OF SYLVARENA...DAMAGE BECAME MUCH LESS...BUT F0 DAMAGE CONTINUED TO BE OBSERVED UP TO THE SMITH/JASPER COUNTY LINE ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF SYLVARENA. THE TOTAL PATH LENGTH FOR THIS TORNADO WAS ABOUT 27 MILES.
NWS SURVEY CREWS ALSO FOUND A PATH OF F1 TORNADO DAMAGE FROM ABOUT 4 MILES WEST OF SYLVARENA TO ABOUT 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF SYLVARENA. THIS TORNADO OCCURRED AT APPROXIMATELY 915 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOST OF THIS DAMAGE WAS LIMITED TO TREES...BUT ONE LARGE TREE WAS UPROOTED AND CAUSED MAJOR DAMAGE TO A HOME WHEN IT FELL ON IT.
NWS CREWS WILL CONTINUE OUR SURVEYS OF THIS AND OTHER TORNADO TRACKS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NWS WOULD LIKE TO THANK OUR PARTNERS IN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...UTILITY COMPANIES...AND THE PUBLIC FOR THEIR TREMENDOUS HELP IN CONDUCTING THESE SURVEYS.
* Again, I would like to say what a great job the NWS did Wednesday in issuing good, timely warnings. There actions saved many lives! If you have time, drop them a thank-you note via e-mail! Here's an e-mail address to send your word of thanks:
Alan.E.Gerard@noaa.gov* Starting to definitely get the idea that we could see a very rough time late Monday into Tuesday. A deep, negative tilt trough - strong instability - strong low level jet - the setup seems classic. I would be surprised if we were not placed under a Moderate or perhaps even a High Risk. Now is the time to review your severe weather safety plan. If you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio, now is the time to purchase one. They are available online also. I'm not advocating any one site, but here are a few places you can find a weather radio:
Buy.com - SAME (programmable for your county) for $40!The Weather StoreAmazon.comLet me reiterate that I'm not advertising for any of the above companies. Just trying to make it easier on those looking to buy one online.
I almost forgot....
* Forgot to mention a few words of thanks. We couldn't have done without Charles Daniel yesterday. He did a great job communicating the latest information from our EMA and NWS partners.
* Also want to thank the WTOK production staff for their work. Also, big thanks to Judy Chatham, who brought us lunch yesterday!
* Most of all, thanks to you for watching. We put a lot of work into our severe weather coverage, despite having some big equipment shortfalls. Work continues on upgrading some things in that department.
What a Day
131 Tornado Warnings. 97 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. All in all, the most active weather day in Mississippi in a long time. NWS survey teams are continuing to review the damage from around the state; preliminary reports are that an F3 tornado touched down in Rankin County. There was also tornado damage in Newton County, near Union. I'll post their findings on here later this afternoon/evening.
From the mailbox...
Thanks for the great coverage yesterday. After living in Oklahoma, I know how important a good meterologist is. You have given us confidence that if there is bad weather, we will know about it.The mail wasn't all good though:
I must say that I have recently been highly disappointed in your severe weather broadcasts. As a long-time resident and viewer, I have always depended on WTOK as my primary source of weather information and you guys usually do a very good job. But recently, especially during the severe weather on April 6, I have noticed that you are slacking. I was upset to notice that the only time the weather seemed important was when it was affecting Meridian and Lauderdale County. There were 2 tornadoes not once, but twice during the day when you CUT BACK TO PROGRAMMING while we sat in waits to see if we would be sucked up by a tornado! But lo and behold when Lauderdale county was being affected, we sat there watching with no interruptions for over an hour while absolutely nothing happened. I hope that you will get it together and soon. And please remember that for most of us in your viewing area, you are our ONLY local television weather source! It could mean life and death for us!Those of you who read this regularly will remember the e-mail of a week or two ago that blasted us pretty good for interrupting their favorite show. Now we get e-mail telling us to go on more often.
And, the statement about covering only Lauderdale County could not be further from the truth. We did long form coverage yesterday for Newton, Neshoba, Smith, and Jasper counties. We chose to go back to programming when the threat of a tornado was decreasing. Thankfully, it worked out well this time. There are some station policies that are beyond my control. If the decision was mine, we would stay on for any tornado warning for any county in our viewing area. That way, there would be no complaints like the one above.
* Enjoy the nice weather this weekend. Highs in the 70's, plenty of sunshine. I'll be heading down to Mobile this weekend for a tropical weather symposium. It's free of charge and open to the public. Here's a link:
SECAPS
Third Wave
* More activity firing over central Mississippi. Tornado warning has just been issued for Smith County. Severe thunderstorm warnings are still in effect for Neshoba, Winston, and Noxubee counties.
* These storms will continue moving east throughout the rest of the night. I've never had a drink of coffee in my life, but tonight may be the night I start.
* SPC continues with a Tornado Watch for us until 1:00 AM. I'll be here watching it...
* Second Wave
* Another wave of activity is now beginning to affect us. The latest tornado warning is for Leake, Neshoba, and Scott counties. We are noticing a VERY strong rotation near Carthage, a tornado could form at any moment.
* Tornado watch continues until 7:00 pm tonight. We'll see more thunderstorms move across us throughout the rest of the afternoon and evening hours.
* Might see some more storms tomorrow when the cold-core low moves overhead. The predominant threat with any storms tomorrow will be hail.
* Hate to be so brief, but I have to get back to watching the radar screen. Will keep you updated...
Quick Update
* Whew. Severe weather quickly exploded this morning. To this point, we have received many reports of damage from around Smith and Rankin counties. The NWS tells us it may have been an F3+.
* Been doing coverage of the weather for much of the morning. Will update as I can.
* Here's a link to the latest damage reports:
MS Damage Reports* Back to coverage...
Downgrade to Slight Risk
* Looks like the SPC has downgraded us from a "Moderate" to a "Slight" risk. I think this is the right decision. We'll probably see some strong/severe storms tomorrow, but I just don't think we'll see enough to warrant a Moderate risk. Here's the new outlook:
SPC Day 1 Outlook* Heavy rain will also create a risk of flooding. The good news is that the weekend of sunshine has allowed the ground to dry out somewhat, so this should help in keeping the flood problem at a manageable level. However, people who live near rivers and streams should be aware that flooding in those areas will be possible if we see thunderstorms moving over the same areas again and again (we call this
training)
* Bed time, waking up early tomorrow for a few IM conferences...
Storms Coming...
* Continuing to watch a potential severe weather threat evolve for late tonight into the day tomorrow. A deep upper level trough is moving slowly through the southern Plains, with a surface low getting going underneath it. This upper level low will interact with marginally unstable air to create a line of severe thunderstorms. These storms will roll through here during the day tomorrow.
* The SPC has placed us under yet another "Moderate" risk of severe weather. I really believe the worst of it will be along and south of I-20, perhaps even further south. Higher dewpoints and greater instability will be present as you go south towards the Gulf Coast, so the threat of severe weather is greater there. Here's the SPC Outlook for tomorrow:
SPC Day 2 Outlook for Wednesday* Prime time of concern will be throughout the day tomorrow. There is a chance a few supercells could get going out in front of the line early tomorrow, with a much greater risk of severe thunderstorms in the form of a squall line tomorrow afternoon.
* I have a number of conference calls and IM conferences this afternoon, starting with NWS Mobile in about 15 minutes. I will post an update later after we finish up with our conferences.
Beautiful Weather
* Tough to get much nicer than the past couple of days. Ample sunshine and pleasant temperatures helped us usher in April. Highs today reached all the way into the upper 70's.
* Clouds are rolling in from the west. These clouds are mostly high cirrus clouds, and have very limited moisture. We'll forecast increasing clouds tonight, with the clouds hanging in to perhaps 8-10 AM tomorrow. The clouds will thin out by late tomorrow morning, setting the stage for yet another great afternoon.
* The next chance of rain comes late Tuesday night into Wednesday. There could be a few storms involved, and the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked all of Mississippi in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather. Here's their forecast:
SPC Day 3 OutlookThe trough is deep and negatively tilted, which favors severe weather. But, the upper level winds are rather weak, and moisture and instability seem to be in short supply. We'll be able to really get into specifics on this tomorrow!
Sunday Night Update
Went out to Arts in the Park today.. had a wonderful time, and the weather was beautiful! This was my first time at the event, and there was great food, music, arts, and crafts there. I will definitely be back next year. Josh Johnson and I had a nice big cup of homemade icecream. You can't beat that with a stick...
Weather out there beautiful today, and we should see even warmer conditions tomorrow and Tuesday with a few more clouds thrown in. Our next rain chance looks to be sometime Wednesday in the form of some showers and thunderstorms. At this time, there does not appear to be a big severe weather threat with this system. I think the main dynamics will stay well to our north, and I'm thinking a squall line will push through the area Wednesday afternoon. We can't rule out the chance of severe weather at this time, but I think we'll escape with just a few strong storms. Josh and Charles will have a better handle on it early next week.
After that little bump in the road, we cool down a little bit on Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid and upper 60s, but I think we rebound nicely by next weekend with highs back in the mid 70s.
I don't know about you all, but I have a case of the Spring Fever after a day like today, and after the severe weather we had last week! After Arts in the Park, we took a drive to Okatibbee Lake... absolutely beautiful. Go outside if you can the next few days and enjoy nature! (if your allergies let you)!
