Expert Discussion Continues...
* Jon Davies is finishing up his talk as we speak. This is the fourth time I've heard him present, and the more I hear the more I respect him. Jon may be the best tornado environment researcher in the entire nation -- his work is truly brilliant.
Today, he covered the development of tornadoes in environments that are not considered "classic" -- they aren't overly favorable. He is developing a new and experimental parameter to evaluate the potential for tornadoes in these non-classic environments. Today's talk was especially geared towards environments with high cloud bases and low helicity, conditions not normally associated with tornadoes.
The new parameter is called "ESP" - Enhanced Stretching Potential - and it evaluates how fast the atmosphere cools as we rise in the atmosphere AND the amount of unstable air in the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere. Although his research is in its preliminary stage, I believe it shows great promise.
* The Symposium winds down at noon tomorrow, and I'll be heading back to Meridian for the 10:00 news. It was really great visiting the Symposium, and I can't wait to go back again next year.
* Big word of congrats to our own Derek Kinkade. Derek serves as Vice President of the East Mississippi Chapter of the National Weather Association. He played a HUGE part in making this Symposium the best I've been to yet.
* Dr. Charles Doswell is probably the most renowned storm chase meteorologist in the nation. He began chasing while an undergrad in northern parts of Illinois back in the early 1960's. Then, while a graduate student at the University of Oklahoma, he began chasing and became aware of the Tornado Intercept Project (TIP). Dr. Doswell is speaking as I write this...Very cool stuff.
First, he showed some video of his extensive chase experience. When you've been chasing as long as he has, you have some pretty amazing things to show!
Doswell then discussed the future of chasing -- issues like increased chaser presence leading to injuries and fatalities. He worries that lack of experience and irresponsible chasers could eventually lead to government regulation of storm chasing.
* Jon Davies, a private research meteorologist, is about to take the podium. Davies has done some excellent work regarding low-level parameters leading to severe weather. Today, he will be speaking on non-classic setups for tornado development...Should be interesting...
Severe Weather Session Continues...
* Alan Gerard, Chad Entremont and Eric Carpenter are all meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Jackson. Alan is the Meteorologist-In-Charge; and the others are both forecasters. They are presenting on the pre-Thanksgiving severe weather outbreak last year. You can read about that event by clicking the link below:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/events/Nov23_24_2004/index.htmHere are some highlights:
- The outbreak was very similar to a tornado outbreak that struck Mississippi in November of 1992, with a split flow pattern in place and a strong upper trough in the southern branch of the jet stream.
- The setup was a classic one for severe weather. Deep layer of moisture, approaching upper trough with a developing surface low northwest of us.
- One of the storms struck Jefferson County, Mississippi. It produced a tornado that was rated an F3, and was 600 yards wide and 18 miles long.
- The storm of the night though was a long-track supercell. It tracked across central Mississippi, producing an amazing EIGHT tornadoes in its path. One person lost their life. The tornado responsible for the death tracked across three counties, and was rated an F3.
- Another supercell moved across our area. This one produced an F1 tornado just southwest of the city of Meridian, and also caused damage in Scott and Newton Counties.
- The final toll was 2 injured, 1 dead. Although many lives were saved, we have to continue to work to make our warning system the BEST it can be. But, I will definitely agree that this could have been much, much worse.
* The NWS guys from Jackson really did a great job with this presentation. They discussed the meteorological setup that led to the outbreak, as well as their staffing plans. The final statistics on their performance shows their hard work: They issued 46 tornado warnings, 20 of which verified. The average lead time on the warnings was 14 minutes. Additionally, they had some software issues during this event and overcame those. Great job!
* More to come later...
Severe Weather...
* We have begun covering the "meat and potatoes" of the conference - severe weather! Right now, meteorologists from the National Weather Service in Memphis are discussing an outbreak of small supercells in northern Mississippi on October 23, 2004. Great stuff...Next up will be a discussion of the Mulvane, Kansas tornado that hit on June 21, 2004...
* Still ahead, we'll hear from Lon Curtis, a well-respected storm chaser and meteorologist from KWTX in Waco, Texas. He will talk about modes of tornadogenesis in a Texas outbreak. Then, we'll hear from Dr. Charles Doswell and research meteorologist Jon Davies -- those should be GREAT!
Busy Hurricane Season...
* Hearing from Dr. Richard Knabb of the NHC...He is the Science and Operations Officer at the National Hurricance Center, and he has brought up some very interesting statistics.
He says that since 1995, we are in a busy cycle of many "major" Atlantic hurricanes. This year was certainly no exception, with 16 named storms (10 is the average).
3100 people died in hurricanes in 2004, including 60 in the United States. Property damage in the U.S. was near $44 billion, which makes 2004 the costliest hurricane season on record.
* Will continue to post updates throughout the day!
Good Morning from Starkville...
* The second day of the conference has started, and we've gotten off to a quick start. We've already heard from forecasters from the National Weather Service and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center about Hurricane Ivan. Very interesting discussions...
* The day only gets better from here. We'll hear from Dr. Richard Knabb of the National Hurricane Center a little later on about the advances in forecasting during the very busy 2004 hurricane season. We'll also hear from legendary meteorologist Dr. Charles Doswell and brilliant research meteorologist Jon Davies. A real weather fan's heaven!
* Gearing up for Little Dooey's Barbeque tonight...Will post more throughout the day...
Sleep Time...
* A great day of fun and learning at the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium up here at MSU. After the talks wound down, we got a group of weather legends and headed down to Pap's Place in Ackerman. Definitely some of the best home cooking in central Mississippi.
* Tomorrow will be a very busy day, with an action-packed agenda. The schedule includes weather legends like Jon Davies and Dr. Charles Doswell, two of the nation's top tornado researchers. We'll also hear some great tropical weather presentations, including a talk on Hurricane Ivan. Definitely looking forward to our traditional trip to Little Dooey's Barbeque Saturday night. Great food, great company -- its quickly becoming a yearly tradition.
* Interesting possibilities for the Deep South in the long term. Looks cold and unsettled, with some moisture available. Will post more on this later this weekend...Have to get some sleep, activities start tomorrow morning at 8 AM!
PM Update from Starkville...
* Saw probably the best presentation ever this morning...Matthew Seals told his story. Matthew was injured in the F5 tornado that struck Jefferson County, Alabama on April 8, 1998. His eight-year-old son Nathan died in the tornado, and his story really brings the tragedy home. In the news business, many have become numb to tragedy. Hearing stories like Matthew Seals' really teaches a great lesson to media. I only wish more people could have heard his story.
* More speakers on the docket today. Right now Bethany Ruschill, a talent evaluator from Frank Magid and Associates, is discussing "how to get a job, and keep it." Many people in the room are graduating this May, so they are really taking good notes! After she's done, we'll have a roundtable discussion about the biggest issues facing broadcast meteorologists.
* Check out Charles Daniel's forecast tonight at 5,6, and 10. Also, be sure to check out this space for more updates on the conference.
Live from Starkville...
* I'm writing this live from Starkville, at the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium via a wireless internet connection. Heard from some great speakers, including Keith Westerlage from the Weather Channel and Rich Apuzzo, the chief meteorologist at a Fox station in Cincinnati Ohio.
* As I write this, Davis Nolan of WKRN in Nashville is talking about their coverage of a tornado in downtown Nashville in April 1998. We have a few more speakers today before winding down later this afternoon. Looking forward to hearing from James Spann of WBMA in Birmingham.
* Familiar faces: Good to see former WTOK meteorologists Wes Wyatt and Brett Cummins here today!
* But, things will be hectic tomorrow with some really great speakers! Be sure to check this space often for live updates.
Busy, Busy
* Been very busy today, trying to get everything squared away for the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium. If you are a weather enthusiast, I encourage you to head up to Starkville this weekend! This will be the best weather conference ever held in the Southeast U.S., with experts like Jon Davies and Charles Doswell (two of the nation's best tornado researchers).
* Forecast looks good for the weekend. Maybe some clouds across northern parts of the area late tomorrow night, but mostly sunny will be the rule.
* Charles will fill in tomorrow night, but I'll be posting blog entries from the Symposium. Check this space often for frequent updates. Also, there is a possibility I'll be able to upload VIDEO from the ongoings in Starkville -- still working out the bugs in the software though. Check back for updates!
Polygon Warning Update
The Newscenter 11 Weather team traveled over to Brandon today for the Emergency Managers/Media Workshop. This is a workshop hosted each year by the National Weather Service, and it is really a great opportunity to communicate. All three of those groups (media, emergency managers, and the NWS) are key cogs in the weather wheel. There were some really great speakers, including an update on the polygon warnings. We discussed those in this space a few weeks ago.
The basic premise it to issue warnings based on where the storm is as opposed to county boundaries. This will allow us to more precisely warn those who are really going to be impacted by a storm. Warnings will be smaller, because if a storm is only going to affect part of a county, the warning will only be issued for that part of the county -- not the entire county.
We learned today that the NWS in Jackson and Mobile will be a test site for the new polygon warnings from March 1 - October 1. Some interesting numbers were brought up comparing the old system -- warnings by county -- versus the polygon system:
In 2004, tornado warnings were issued that covered 31,990 square miles and 494 towns. Obviously, tornadoes did not strike that large of an area. So, we can safely say that many of the tornado warnings were for areas not affected by a tornado.
Using the polygon system, those warnings would have only covered 9500 square miles and 152 towns. So, we would have reduced the area where a "false alarm" occurred by 70%!!
I believe that polygon warnings are a great step towards warning ONLY those affected by the storm at hand. But, we are still years away from fully implementing this system. Once the NWS begins issuing these warnings on a full-time basis, we will still have to adapt our weather radios, emergency outdoor sirens, and our warning display software to accurately depict the warnings.
We live in a changing world, and its great to see our NWS taking proactive steps to better serve the public!
Sleet Reports...
* Quick note: We have received a few reports of sleet from around the area this afternoon. Thank you so much for your reports! If you have any more reports of sleet or snow, please post them on the 'blog or shoot me an email. Thanks again!
* Still watching the rain mass over Mississippi and southern Arkansas. It will move east-southeast into our neck of the woods over the hours to come tonight.
Quick Update
* Light rain continues to move in from the west. Temperatures holding in the upper 40's. We'll see the rain continue at times tonight. Still not out of the realm of possibilities to see some wet snowflakes later tonight, but looks highly unlikely.
* Had a great time over in Brandon today at the Emergency Managers/Media Workshop. There were some great presentations, including one about the new "polygon" warning. Will share more on this later tonight.
* Have to get ready for the 5:00 news, time is really flying by today. Again, I'll post later tonight with info from the workshop and a look at a very stormy and interesting long range forecast.
Morning Thoughts
* Will be brief this morning, heading over to Brandon for the Emergency Management/Media Workshop.
* Latest model data still supports some light rain later tonight. However, the models are all backing off on the available amount of moisture and lift. So, a few showers looks like about it.
* Snow chances? Almost zero. With the smaller amount of lift, we won't have to worry about dynamic cooling (see post below). Still, we'll have to watch it.
* Long range -- looks like an active pattern setting up next week. More on that later today.
March Roars In...
* Lion? Lamb? Felt more like a polar bear delivering March to our doorstep today. Highs ran almost 20 degrees below normal. Couple the cold air with stiff northwesterly winds, and it felt more like January than March today. The forecast for the next two weeks is going to be a very difficult affair. Here's our thinking:
* The fun starts tomorrow night, when rain overspreads the state from the west. Temperatures aloft support snow, but low level temperatures will likely leave us with only rain.
* My concern is that we could see what's called "dynamic cooling" of the low levels -- causing rain to change to wet snow. Dynamic cooling occurs when our atmosphere is stretched vertically. The best way to measure vertical stretching is by looking at the 700 millibar chart. We look for reddish brown circles of "omega" -- areas of rapid vertical motion in the atmosphere. This is where the potential exists for some dynamic cooling. Here's the 18z NAM showing an "omega" bullseye right over our area:
18z NAM Valid 6 AM Thursday MorningSo, the potential is there for some dynamic cooling. Also, as snowflakes fall through the warm layer of air near the surface, they will melt. This melting of snowflakes causes the air to cool. This will also cause some cooling of the low levels. All of these things considered, we still believe we will only see a cold rain. But, I want you to know there is a very small chance we could see some wet snowflakes. Even if it does snow, surface temperatures will stay above freezing, and the snow will melt rapidly.
* Again, let me reiterate, I am not forecasting snow at this point. I am simply evaluating the possibilities as I see them at this time. We will keep a close eye peeled over the next 24-36 hours and will update this space as our thinking changes.
* Whew. Busy week ahead. Heading over to Brandon tomorrow for the Emergency Management/Media Workshop. Should be a great time, will try to post tomorrow afternoon after I get back to Meridian. Then, I'll be heading to Starkville for the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium Thursday night. Charles will be filling in for me Friday night. If you are a weather enthusiast, consider going to the Symposium! Some of the brightest minds in the business will be presenting this year. For more information, check out the website at:
Southeast Severe Storms Symposium
Forecast Notes
* Cold weather has arrived. Temperatures today only reached the upper 40's and lower 50's across much of east Mississippi and west Alabama. Snow flurries were reported as far south as Birmingham.
* Dry weather will last through tomorrow, but clouds will increase tomorrow afternoon. Rain moves in here tomorrow night. We are still watching for the possibility of some wet snow mixing in with the rain. At this time, it appears that temperatures in the lowest 5000' of the atmosphere will be too warm to support frozen precipitation. However, I have a hunch that someone could see a few wet snowflakes here and there. Doesn't look like a big deal at this time, but we'll keep an eye on things. One concern I have is that the precipitation falling into the atmosphere may cause it to cool below freezing, giving us more snowflakes than we anticipate. We'll watch it.
* The rest of the forecast looks cool and mostly dry, with moisture-starved shortwaves moving through in this northwesterly flow aloft.
* Will post again between 5-7 tonight!
Snow Surprise in Tennessee
* Looks like middle Tennessee got more snow they they bargained for. Snow Advisories have been issued for much of Tennessee, especially east of Nashville. The webcam from the National Park is showing the snow falling:
Purchase Knob, NC* Models still show rain Wednesday night. Shouldn't be heavy, and temperatures should be warm enough for all rain. Still cold enough to make me nervous though, with temperatures in the upper 30's. Will continue to monitor.
* Heading out to run some errands this morning. I'll post later this afternoon.
Interesting Weather Ahead
* Watching the radar as patchy light drizzle continues to move southeast through the northern part of Mississippi. Nashville, Tennessee reported light snow last hour at 34 degrees. We'll only see patchy drizzle around here, with the best shot being along and north of Highway 16.
* Still keeping an eye on the system moving through here Wednesday night. Latest runs of the GFS and NAM both bring some precipitation in here:
0z GFS Valid Midnight Wednesday Night0z NAM Valid Midnight Wednesday NightThe 1000-500 millibar 540dm (the southernmost blue dashed line) is pretty close to us, and that is a very rough "first-guess" of the rain/snow line. This line shows us where the AVERAGE temperature of the atmosphere from the surface to around 18,000 feet is below freezing. The problem with this value is that we often see situations where extremely cold or warm layers in the atmosphere skew the average. For example, consider a scenario where the lowest half of the atmosphere is 10 degrees above freezing and the upper half of the atmosphere is 10 degrees below freezing. The AVERAGE temperature is exactly freezing -- but the bottom half of the atmosphere is well ABOVE freezing!
In the setup Wednesday night, temperatures in the lowest 5000' will be above freezing, so the snow should melt on its way down. Bottom line is that we expect only rain with temperatures in the upper 30's. If our thoughts should change, we'll of course update things.
* The rain clears out Thursday afternoon, and we begin a slow warming trend by late week.
* Will post tomorrow with more on the upcoming Southeast Severe Storms Symposium!
Eastern Snowstorm Continues
* Parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are getting clobbered this afternoon. Heavy snow is falling across parts of northern Virginia and into Pennsylvania. Snow continues in the Smoky Mountains as well. Check out the National Park Webcam at Purchase Knob, NC:
Purchase Knob Webcam* Running behind today, but here's a quick look at things. Looks cold tomorrow. Highs might get to 50 if we are lucky. Wednesday looks cold as well. Chance of rain Wednesday night, could see some snow flurries mixed in with the rain north of Highway 16. We'll watch the trends with that, a very tricky system. I'll update later today when I finally catch up!
Sunday Notes...
Ahh, the Oscars... A night when we find out the best of the best in the entertainment world, and a night when countless news personalities that work for ABC affiliates curse the fact that they will be putting in late hours at the station! Actually, its not so bad. On the bright side, it gives me a chance to check out some more model data, and we'll get right to the discussion.
*Short term
Looks like a few showers still around the I-55 corridor as I write this. We should see these showers continue overnight, and we may even see a few showers linger into the morning hours. There will be areas of fog that will form after midnight tonight, so be careful if anyone is out on the roads, as I will be soon after the news, driving back to good ol' Starkville.
Monday looks like a day where we will see clouds and drizzle early, then clearing as we head through the afternoon, and turning much cooler by Monday night. Look for the lows around 30 as a cold front will push through the area late Monday. This will make for some chilly conditions around here by Tuesday with highs holding in the 40s.
Medium and long range
Let me be the first to say that there is a low confidence forecast in the medium and long range. A series of shortwaves (we commonly call them 'upper level disturbances' when we are on the air) will move across our area. These often allow for rising air at the surface. Will there be enough rising air and moisture interacting to produce rain? Will it be just clouds? Either way, this can play havoc with temperature forecasts, especially at night. So here we go...
The NAM model is starting to come around with the idea of our shortwave that will move through here Wednesday. At this time, I think that the main rain chances around here will come Wednesday afternoon and evening. Other models are on this bandwagon as well, and if that is the case, temperatures should be above freezing and what we see will be just rain. If the moisture waits until Wednesday night, or comes in earlier on Tuesday night, we may be dealing with a chance of some light snow, but I don't think this will be the case. Charles and Josh will have a better handle on the sitution tomorrow and Tuesday.
Other than that, weather remains unsettled for the end of the week. I think we will see our temperatures in the low to mid 50s, so no real warmup anytime soon for East Mississippi and West Alabama. Each day will feature a mixture of clouds and sun, although I don't see any rain in our long term until maybe the first of next week. Lots of nervous energy in the Gulf of Mexico, however, and with cold air not far away, that's always a scary sight. We will keep a close eye on it!
Quick Note
* Just wanted to post a quick note to expand on the idea that Derek and I discussed last night about the GFS bias. The GFS computer model often tries to "split" the trough. Rather than having one big, consolidated trough, it tries to have two troughs: the deeper "main" trough -- and then a second weaker shortwave lagging behind. This is a pretty common error with the GFS.
* The second weaker shortwave is the one we are watching for the possibility of some light frozen precipitation Tuesday night/Wednesday. So, we are skeptical, due to the fact that this setup is a known error of the GFS. But, the problem is that some of our other computer models, namely the Canadian, NOGAPS, and UKMET, were seeing the same thing. Our most accurate model, the NAM, does not favor this scenario.
* Bottom line is that we
may see some light precipitation around the middle of next week. And, it may be cold enough for some snow flurries in the northernmost reaches of our viewing area. But, at this time, it just doesn't look like a big deal. But, in this pattern, the forecast can change very quickly. So, stay tuned. Derek will be along later today to update the 'blog. And, as always, you can check out his forecast on TV at 10:00 tonight or on the website at
www.wtok.com/weather.
