Quick Note
* Just wanted to post a quick note to expand on the idea that Derek and I discussed last night about the GFS bias. The GFS computer model often tries to "split" the trough. Rather than having one big, consolidated trough, it tries to have two troughs: the deeper "main" trough -- and then a second weaker shortwave lagging behind. This is a pretty common error with the GFS.* The second weaker shortwave is the one we are watching for the possibility of some light frozen precipitation Tuesday night/Wednesday. So, we are skeptical, due to the fact that this setup is a known error of the GFS. But, the problem is that some of our other computer models, namely the Canadian, NOGAPS, and UKMET, were seeing the same thing. Our most accurate model, the NAM, does not favor this scenario.
* Bottom line is that we may see some light precipitation around the middle of next week. And, it may be cold enough for some snow flurries in the northernmost reaches of our viewing area. But, at this time, it just doesn't look like a big deal. But, in this pattern, the forecast can change very quickly. So, stay tuned. Derek will be along later today to update the 'blog. And, as always, you can check out his forecast on TV at 10:00 tonight or on the website at www.wtok.com/weather.
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 11:46 AM
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