Twin States Weather Blog

March Roars In...

* Lion? Lamb? Felt more like a polar bear delivering March to our doorstep today. Highs ran almost 20 degrees below normal. Couple the cold air with stiff northwesterly winds, and it felt more like January than March today. The forecast for the next two weeks is going to be a very difficult affair. Here's our thinking:

* The fun starts tomorrow night, when rain overspreads the state from the west. Temperatures aloft support snow, but low level temperatures will likely leave us with only rain.

* My concern is that we could see what's called "dynamic cooling" of the low levels -- causing rain to change to wet snow. Dynamic cooling occurs when our atmosphere is stretched vertically. The best way to measure vertical stretching is by looking at the 700 millibar chart. We look for reddish brown circles of "omega" -- areas of rapid vertical motion in the atmosphere. This is where the potential exists for some dynamic cooling. Here's the 18z NAM showing an "omega" bullseye right over our area:

18z NAM Valid 6 AM Thursday Morning

So, the potential is there for some dynamic cooling. Also, as snowflakes fall through the warm layer of air near the surface, they will melt. This melting of snowflakes causes the air to cool. This will also cause some cooling of the low levels. All of these things considered, we still believe we will only see a cold rain. But, I want you to know there is a very small chance we could see some wet snowflakes. Even if it does snow, surface temperatures will stay above freezing, and the snow will melt rapidly.

* Again, let me reiterate, I am not forecasting snow at this point. I am simply evaluating the possibilities as I see them at this time. We will keep a close eye peeled over the next 24-36 hours and will update this space as our thinking changes.

* Whew. Busy week ahead. Heading over to Brandon tomorrow for the Emergency Management/Media Workshop. Should be a great time, will try to post tomorrow afternoon after I get back to Meridian. Then, I'll be heading to Starkville for the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium Thursday night. Charles will be filling in for me Friday night. If you are a weather enthusiast, consider going to the Symposium! Some of the brightest minds in the business will be presenting this year. For more information, check out the website at:

Southeast Severe Storms Symposium

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 6:49 PM