Drought Update:
Here is a drought update for you that the Climate Prediction Center issued on May 1st. Severe drought conditions continue for most of Mississippi into western parts of Alabama. Across northern Alabama conditions are worse; furthermore, they are currently suffering from an extreme drought. Notice the letters AH over Mississippi and Alabama, this basically means that the drought is impacting agricultural and hydrological interests across the Twin States. As many of you know, water levels across the area are running low.
Here is an update on select area water levels:
Pearl River:
Philadelphia 4.86'
Carthage 3.89'
Chickasawhay River:
Enterprise 5.24'
Shubuta NR- Observed data is not available unless over 5 feet
Chunky River:
Chunky 2.65'
Tombigbee River:
Demopolis 33.31'
Gainesville 74.12'
Black Warrior River:
Selden Dam 73.89'
Okatibbee Lake:
338.88'
According to the Climate Prediction Center the drought situation is still expected to improve by at least one category over the next few months which would still leaves us in a moderate drought. Go to the following link to read the hydrologic statement from our National Weather Service Office in Jackson, Mississippi.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/cgi-bin/productview2.php?pil=JANESFJAN&version=0Have a great weekend and God Bless
Labels: Public Information Statements
Slight Risk For Severe Weather Today
* The SPC has our area under a slight risk for severe weather today. The primary threat would be damaging winds and hail. Very muggy out there this morning with dewpoints in the 60s. Storms will increase in coverage as we go through the day.
* Strong storms are starting to develop to across South and Southwest Mississippi this morning and as well as Central Mississippi. This activity will move to the east and northeast as we go through the morning and will affect our area later. Already have seen some warnings in Southwest Mississippi this morning.
* More information during Good Morning Meridian updates during Good Morning America and here on the blog...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
4:00 AM Update:
Radar Update:
Sorry, I haven't posted in a couple of hours because I've had trouble getting on the blog. The complex of showers and thunderstorms has really weakened over the past couple of hours. It appears the severe threat is almost non-existent; however, a tornado watch continues for Jones County until 4:00 this morning. The main threat looks to be heavy rain which is good news because we could really use the rainfall. We may see more showers and thunderstorms develop later this morning into the afternoon hours and those could pack a punch if they can get going. Enjoy the rain, and we'll be here to keep you updated.
Labels: Radar Update
Radar Update:
Tonight we are continuing to watch a line of strong to severe thunderstorms pushing across parts of central and southern Mississippi. I haven't seen any new warnings issued over the past hour or so, but a tornado watch remains in effect for a good chunk of southern Mississippi. In our viewing area, Jones County is under a tornado watch until 4:00 a.m. This line of storms should begin to affect our western counties in the next couple of hours, and the storms should be moving through the Meridian area in the early morning hours say between 2 a.m. and 5 a.m. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, but an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out since there is a tornado watch in effect for southern Mississippi. Stay tuned for more updates.
Labels: Forecast Discussion and Severe Weather
Severe Weather Potential!
The Storm Prediction Center has put our Mississippi counties in a slight risk for severe weather tonight into at least Friday morning. A slow moving complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is pushing from Louisiana into western and southwestern Mississippi at this hour. This complex of storms should continue pushing off to the east during the overnight hours. Over the past couple of hours, we have noticed this system weakening somewhat; however, let's not drop our guard just yet. I think the main threat with these storms will be damaging wind and large hail, but an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out. The forecast models we look at are doing a terrible job of handling this event so here is what I think. The best time frame for seeing this activity will be from the early morning hours on Friday until the mid-afternoon; the reason for the broad time frame is once again due to how poorly models are performing. The convection should weaken overall, but still there will be a threat for at least some isolated severe thunderstorms. I will be here as long as the potential for severe weather exists, and Chris will come in if things start getting out of hand. Let's just hope this thing holds together so we can get some much needed rainfall.
God Bless
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Radar Update - Watching To Our West
* Mean line of severe thunderstorms working through far Western Louisiana getting ready to cross the Mississippi River near Vicksburg. Lots of damage reports in Louisiana with this line of storms and a report of major damage around Bastrop, Louisiana.
* Tornado Watch in effect for areas to our west of our coverage area... mainly from Brandon and west to the Vicksburg area. This activity will work toward our area later tonight.
* Stay with us for updates here on the blog and on Newscenter 11...
Labels: Forecast Discussion and Severe Weather
New Tornado Watch To Our West:
* Looks like a long night for us... SPC just issued a Tornado Watch for areas just outside our viewing area... no counties in our WTOK coverage area are included. Its roughly along and west of Interstate 55 and into Louisiana... course those storms will end up in our area later tonight.
* Damage report out of Noxubee Co:
Shuqualak [Noxubee Co, MS] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 05:53 PM CDT -- tree down on powerlines.
* Trent and I have got your covered on tv and on the web... I am going stay up and watch the weather situation tonight and handle the blog from home but will probably head up to the station later to assist Trent who is handling the tv side of our coverage.
* Reminder: Our friends over at WMOX radio will be carrying our weather cut-ins for those of you who may be away from tv later tonight. There are at 1010 on the AM dial!
Labels: Forecast Discussion and Severe Weather
Warnings Update:
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Kemper County has been cancelled. The cluster of storms has weakened and is no longer severe. Expect moderate to heavy rain in spots across the county and perhaps some small hail and gusty winds. The storms are moving northeastward at 25 mph.
Labels: Severe Weather
Warnings Update:
* Lauderdale County's warning (Severe Thunderstorm) has be cancelled as the storms have moved into Kemper County. Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for Kemper until 6:00 PM. NWS indicates the storms are weakening but still could have penny size hail and gusty winds. The storms will affect areas along and east of MS Hwy 39... including DeKalb, Enondale, Scooba, and Porterville.
* Trent will have updates on television while I cover things on the blog here
Labels: Severe Weather
Severe T-Storm Warning - Lauderdale and Kemper County:
* NWS Jackson has issued a Severe T-Storm Warning for Lauderdale and Kemper County until 6:00 PM
Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0705032212.wuus54.htmlThe storms will affect NAS Meridian, Daleville, Oak Grove, Blackwater, Enondale, Porterville, DeKalb. Areas along Hwy 39 and US 45 will be impacted by the storms.
Labels: Severe Weather
Radar Update - Storms Getting Active
* Strong thunderstorm affecting Lauderdale, Newton, and Neshoba Counties in East Mississippi. The storms stretch from gust west of Meridian to Collinsville to House and to Union. Another storm was located in Netwon Co. along Hwy 503 moving close to Duffee and Little Rock. This band of storms will move northeast at 25 mph. NWS reports these storms could have some small hail but at the moment are not severe. They could pulse up to severe levels at any time.
* NWS reports:
3 N Forest [Scott Co, MS] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 04:10 PM CDT -- a few trees down off highway 35 around forest.* Take note on the statewide radar image that another line of storms is approaching the Mississippi River. There are active warnings with these storms and the SPC is reporting a watch possible with that line of storms.
* More updates with Trent here in a bit on Live at 5:00 on Newscenter 11... and here on the weather blog
Labels: Severe Weather
Radar Update - Severe T'Storm Warning For Scott County Continues:
Click for larger view
* Severe T-Storm Warning continues for Scott County until 4:45 PM... affecting the northeastern part of the county. The storm will approach Steele and Sebastopol here in the next few minutes.
* Strong storms over Western Lauderdale County along I-59 and I-20 from the split west of Meridian to Lost Gap and Meehan. This storm will clip the Savoy area as well and affect Meridian and Suqualena.
* Another band of storms along I-20 from Newton to Lake. This band is moving northeast and will affect Decatur, Union, and Little Rock.
* Stay with us for updates... Trent is on the television end and I am covering the weather blog...
Labels: Forecast Discussion and Severe Weather
Severe T-Storm Warning - Scott County:
* The NWS in Jackson has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 4:45 PM for Scott County in Central Mississippi.
Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0705032107.wuus54.htmlThe storm will affect Hillsboro, Steele and will pass north of Forest. On this track the storm will affect Sebastopol as well. It is mainly affecting the northeastern part of the county. The storm is moving northeast at 25 mph.
Labels: Severe Weather
Storms Approaching From Our Southwest:
(Click for larger view)
* Band of strong to severe thunderstorms is approaching our southwestern counties of the Newscenter 11 viewing area. At the moment there are no warnings in our viewing area. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are in effect over South Central Mississippi with the storms in Simpson, Marion and Jefferson Davis County.
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for Jones County only until 4:00 PM. We'll have to wait and see here if the SPC decides to extend a new watch more into our viewing area.
* Trent will have more on the television side and here on the blog this afternoon and evening. I will also be updating here on the blog if storms start to affect our area.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Severe Threat:
Right now we are watching a line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving across South Central Mississippi. This line is moving off to the north northeast, and it could begin to affect WTOK's western and southwestern counties over the next hour or so. These storms have a history of producing winds in excess of 70 m.p.h. around Brookhaven, MS and a few trees were blown down in that area as well. A severe thunderstorm watch continues for Jones County in our viewing area until 4:00 p.m. Stay tuned for further updates...
Labels: Severe Weather
Severe T-Storm Watch To Our Southwest:
* SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas of South and Southwest Mississippi until 4:00 PM. This watch only includes one county in our viewing area... Jones County.
* More later....
Labels: Severe Weather
8:00 AM Update
* Isolated thunderstorms have popped up just west of Meridian in Lauderdale County. There are also isolated storms popping up in parts of Jasper County.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Isolated Storms Today:
* Good morning... we've already seen some isolated storms this morning across parts of Winston and Noxubee County. With a moist atmopshere and daytime heating storms will pop up in random spots today.
* Better rain chances come into the forecast later tonight and tomorrow as the system over Texas finally moves our way. Models keep the area wet through next week so isolated storms will be kept in the forecast.
* No heat relief: No cool down is expect as daytime highs remain in the middle 80s and overnight lows in the lower 60s.
* New Weather Blog: We are starting a new weather blog that will be run through our website server and not the blogger server here soon. Its not up yet as we are still working out the bugs but we will switch to it here in the next week or so. The new link for the weather and other stations blogs is:
http://www.wtok.com/wtokblogs* Have a great day...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Evening Update:
Forecast models are doing a poor job handling the convective system racing across Texas. This system has produced widespread wind damage across Texas with tornado and hail reports as well; furthermore, check out all the storm reports across Texas associated with this event by looking at the above image. This system has pushed well ahead of the primary upper level disturbance which is located in eastern New Mexico and western Texas. So the further this complex of storms moves east it should weaken as it gets away from the main support. I will call for this system to weaken as it heads toward the Mississippi River, but check Chris' forecast out tomorrow morning just in case it does hold together. As the main upper level disturbance across eastern New Mexico and western Texas continues to move east, we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms developing Thursday afternoon. This shortwave will move across Mississippi on Friday and bring us our best chance for rain and thunderstorms.
Have a good night,
God Bless
Labels: Forecast Discussion
A Few Showers Today, More On The Way!
A few showers moved across our western counties earlier today, and we had a couple of thunderstorms across eastern Wayne County and also southern Choctaw County Alabama. All of that activity is now dissipating, and really we only had maybe 10-20% total coverage. Most of the rainfall at this hour is moving across North Mississippi, and this activity should stay to the north of our area indicated by the first radar image you see.
The second radar image is from the Dallas/Forth Worth area, and as you can see that are getting some hefty thunderstorm action. The activity across Texas is associated with an upper level disturbance that is moving in our direction. I don't think we will see the severe weather they are seeing across parts of Texas; however, this upper level feature (shortwave) will provide us with scattered shower and thunderstorm chances for later in the day Thursday. The shortwave should be moving across Mississippi by Friday, that will be the time period when we see our best chance for showers and thunderstorms.
God Bless
Labels: Forecast Discussion
SCATTERED STORMS ON THE WAY!
As high pressure continues to slip off to the east, it will allow fairly week upper level disturbances to affect East Mississippi and West Alabama. On this Tuesday night, an upper level low is centered across the Southern Plains; however, as this system lifts to the northeast it will have very little impact on our weather because most of the rainfall will stay to the north and west of the Twin States. So Wednesday will be for the most part dry with very warm temperatures continuing. By the way, today we hit a high of 88° at Key Field in Meridian which gives us our warmest day of the year so far. I will hold out for a 10% chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two on Wednesday, but the best chance of rain will stay to the west of Interstate 55. By late Wednesday, another upper level disturbance should be moving into West Texas, and this system will continue to move off the the east on Thursday. With our warm and moist atmosphere in place, as this disturbance approaches our area scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on the menu for Thursday and Friday.
The above map was generated by the GFS Model at 12Z (7:00 a.m.) this morning, and it is showing precipitation for 0Z Friday which is really 7:00 p.m. Thursday. And just so you know what you are reading here is a little guide taken from Unisys Weather. (The quantitative precpitation field shows estimated 12 hour precipitation (liquid equivalent) for the 12 hour period prior to the valid time). So it basically shows rainfall rates below a 0.25" across the area from 7 a.m. Thursday through 7 p.m. Thursday. However, isolated rain totals could approach 0.50" or even higher with stronger storms. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time, but any storm that develops may produce gusty winds, brief heavy downpours, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. We need the rainfall because we are 14.43" behind for the year.
God Bless
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Welcome To May:
* Very mild morning across Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama this morning. Temperatures are in the middle 50s as I write this with clear skies in the area. Nice almost full moon in the sky this morning. It will be officially full tomorrow May 2nd.
* Daytime highs will climb back into the upper 80s today on southerly winds. A few clouds will drift in from the west as we go through the day so mostly sunny skies will dominate the forecast.
* Rain chances: The high over the Southeast is still keeping the storm system over Texas from moving much but eventually it will move toward Mississippi as the high weakens and shifts out of the area. A cold front will drop down into the Tennessee Valley by Wednesday night and will stall just to our north. The combination of the low moving in and the front will help showers and storms in the forecast Thursday and Friday. The front will stall over Southeast and another low over the Southwestern US will work this way over the weekend and first of next week keeping clouds in place with a few thunderstorms in the forecast.
* More on the forecast on Good Morning Meridian from 5:30 - 7:00 AM. Also join Trent tonight at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
April Ends Warm & Dry... May Starts Warm & Dry:
* As we start May tomorrow, a warm ridge dominates the Southeast and is keeping things warm and dry across the Twin States. Daytime highs yesterday were in the middle and upper 80 and we are heading in that same direction today. The warm trend will stay with us through the extended periods.
* Rain chances this week: A storm system over Texas that is being blocked by the high will eventually move toward Mississippi as the high weakens and shifts out of the area. A cold front will drop down into the Tennessee Valley by Wednesday. The combination of the low moving in and the front will help showers and storms in the forecast Thursday and Friday. The front will stall over Southeast and a few more weak shortwave lows will move across through the weekend and first of next week keeping clouds in place with a few thunderstorms.
* Drought Monitor: US Drought monitor still has our area under Severe Stage Drought levels. We are ending the month of April only picking up 3.28" of rain. Most of that came with the two inch rain event last week. April officially ends at -2.34 below normal but the year still stands severe at -14.26" for Key Field.
* More on your forecast here in a bit on Newscenter 11 at 5:00 and later at 6:00 and 10:00. I am back again with you bright and early (though I might be a bit tired) on Good Morning Meridian: Early Editon at 5:30 AM Tuesday and Good Morning Meridian from 6:00 - 7:00 AM.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Warm & Dry Though Midweek:
* I am running a bit late on the morning blog update this morning... sorry about that everyone.
* High pressure will be dominate the Twin States through Wednesday. Our next chance of rain will be late Wednesday night through Saturday as upper level disturbances affects the region.
* A front will move south along with a the disturbance over Texas will combine to affect our area by Thursday and Friday. Another disturbance will affect the area over the weekend but it will not be a total washout.
* I'll have a more detailed forecast on the blog later today as I am back in at 5:00, 6:00 and 10:00 covering the evening shift for Trent.
* Have a great week!
Labels: Forecast Discussion
Here is a drought update for you that the Climate Prediction Center issued on May 1st. Severe drought conditions continue for most of Mississippi into western parts of Alabama. Across northern Alabama conditions are worse; furthermore, they are currently suffering from an extreme drought. Notice the letters AH over Mississippi and Alabama, this basically means that the drought is impacting agricultural and hydrological interests across the Twin States. As many of you know, water levels across the area are running low.
