Looking Dry...
* Radar shows that most of the measurable precipitation is across southernmost Mississippi. We expect that most of our area will stay dry today, especially along and north of U.S. 80. There could be a few sprinkles along the Highway 84 corridor, but even there, the chance of significant rain is almost zero.
* Looking back, the GFS outperformed the NAM with this event. The NAM overestimated both the coverage and intensity of the precipitation - bringing rain much too far inland.
* Just wanted to post a quick note about the evaporating rain chances. I'm at home in Jacksonville, Alabama. My cousin Jennifer is getting married today at 4pm, so I'll be out for the rest of the day. Charles will have your full forecast tonight at 6 and 10!
Tough Forecast Ahead
* Getting a few reports of sleet from around the Laurel area tonight....This is not a widespread event, and there will be no accumulation or travel problems from any sleet pellets you do see falling tonight...
* The weekend looks wet, at least for some of us. The best chance of rain will come along and south of I-20. Our computer model guidance is still murky about the exact amount of moisture available with this system. We believe that the drier GFS is probably correct. So, we do not anticipate a soaking rain with this system; amounts will likely stay under one-half inch in most places. Some communities north of I-20 could potentially stay dry altogether. Indeed, a tough forecast!
* It doesn't get any easier next week. Monday and Tuesday should be cool and dry, but the fun really begins around midweek. A deep upper low is forecast to track across the Deep South. These closed upper lows are famous for their ability to throw curveballs at our forecasting attempts. They are capable of supplying their own cold air AND their own moisture. Combining those two can lead to some fun. We'll watch it closely...
Nebraska - The Good Life
* If you read the title of this post, I am not bashing Mississippi...that is actually our state motto that is painted all over the big green signs when you enter the state :) As Josh noted earlier, I am back in Lincoln, Nebraska, my hometown, visiting family and friends. This is the first substantial time I have spent at home in about a year -- so lots of catching up to do.
* I have seen my new baby nephew, Zak. He is a cutie for sure. I have spent time with my family and friends and done a little christmas shopping as well. It sure is amazing to see how things have changed around here in just one year.
* The weather here...it is quite a change. I came home to snow cover and cool weather. The snow has melted but today has consisted of a high near 30 with a northwesterly breeze at 35mph and periods of flurries and light snow...no accumulation though.
* I want to thank Josh and Charles for giving me a couple weekends of rest after a rather hectic 5 months to start my career at WTOK. Those of course included Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and a few other severe weather days. I am looking forward to being back on Christmas Eve and doing a little tracking of Santa. Time to raid the parents fridge (I love free food!)...
Fun Times...
* This is among my favorite times of the year in the world of weather forecasting. We can see it all in December - snow, severe weather, warmth are all possible. I guess the things we don't see around here in December are hurricanes. No complaints here. We have a lot of fun ahead, so we'll get right to our thinking...
* Tomorrow sure looks wet. Periods of rain, heavy at times, will occur through the afternoon and evening hours. Some neighborhoods could end up with over one inch of rain by the time the rain tapers off late tomorrow night.
* Thursday and Friday look dry and cool.
* Our next system will approach in time for the weekend. We expect a cold rain around here, with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees. Parts of northernmost Mississippi, Alabama and much of Tennessee could see some wintry weather out of this system. There is some chance that we could see a few sleet pellets at the onset of the precipitation, but there will be no accumulation and it will not be a big deal. Any sleet will change very quickly to a chilly rain.
Computer model guidance continues to waffle on the exact amount of precipitation expected with this system. So, we'll just have to watch it unfold for a few more days before delving into the specifics of how much rain we expect.
* The models hint at a very significant upper trough by the middle of next week, with a surface low forming somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. This is generally a setup that is favorable for some wintry precipitation somewhere across the Deep South. Obviously, it's far too early to try and pinpoint where and exactly when...It's just something we'll have to keep an eye on over the next few days...
