Tropical Depression 1
* The first tropical depression of the 2006 hurricane season has formed...It is located just west of the western tip of Cuba, and will track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today.
* The depression is not very well organized, but will likely become better organized over the next 24 hours. It is also likely that it will become a tropical storm (winds in excess of 39 mph) later today or tonight.
* Forecast: At this point, we continue to believe the depression will move northward into the Gulf of Mexico, and then turn northeast towards the Big Bend region of Florida. This is consistent with the National Hurricane Center's forecast track. If I had to pick a landfall point, it would be just north of Tampa, Florida.
* Impact here? If the above track is correct, the system will have almost no impact on our weather. We will probably see some drier and cooler air pulled down in the northerly flow as the system departs. It would be nice if we could get some rain out of this, we sorely need it.
* Uncertainty: Our computer model guidance had a wide array of track forecasts. Some models want to stall the system out in the Gulf of Mexico, while others bring it northward towards the central Gulf coast. So, there is still plenty of uncertainty in the track forecast. We can tell you with some confidence that it is highly unlikely that this system will become much more than a tropical storm. It's a bit too early in the year for that, but stranger things have occurred. We will continue to watch closely!
Hot Weekend Ahead...
* This weekend sure looks HOT! Temperatures tomorrow in most communities will easily reach the upper 90's, and a 100 degree reading or two is not out of the question. Throw in the humidity, and it will feel every bit of 100 degrees across all of our area. Sunday will be hot as well, with more middle to upper 90's.
* TROPICS: An area of disturbed weather continues to get better organized in the far western Caribbean Sea. This will likely become a tropical depression in the next 12 to 24 hours, and could be come a tropical storm over the weekend.
* If it does become a tropical storm, it will be named Alberto. While the forecast is still a bit murky, our best effort is that this will track north into the southern Gulf of Mexico, then curve northeast towards central Florida...making landfall somewhere between Apalachicola and Tampa. Shear increases over the northern Gulf, so anything moving in that direction will likely weaken a bit as it approaches land.
* BOTTOM LINE: A tropical storm may form in the western Caribbean Sea. It's very unlikely that this will become an intense hurricane, and it appears at this point that it will pass well to our east. But, expect the unexpected when dealing with tropical weather. We'll keep a close eye on things over the weekend and will update this space frequently.
Tropical Issues?
* Many of our computer models continue to suggest at least the possibility of some sort of tropical system forming in the southernmost Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea over the next couple of days.
* Here's the Thursday 1030pm outlook from the National Hurricane Center:
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR EASTERN YUCATAN. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM LAND WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
* Forgive the all caps...It's a government thing...
* The GFDL computer model develops the system into a tropical storm over the central Gulf of Mexico before weakening it and bringing it inland over the Florida panhandle. But, this is just guidance - not an official forecast...
* Bottom line: There is a chance that we may see a tropical storm form in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It is probably too early in the season for this to become a big storm, if it even develops. We could use the rain, so hopefully we'll get some tropical moisture WITHOUT any tropical storm...
* We will be watching the tropics closely over the next several months, so check back for updates!
Podcast: Friday Edition
* This is the Newscenter 11 Podcast - a forecast designed for the increasingly popular IPods! This product can also be played on most personal computers. It's a great way to get extra forecast and weather content at your convenience.
* In today's podcast, I discuss the heat and potential for tropical trouble...Check it out:http://media.graytvinc.com/audio/Podcast1.mp3* You can point your IPod or MP3 receiving program to this RSS feed in order to subscribe:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/11Podcast
Podcast: Thursday Edition
* This is the Newscenter 11 Podcast - a forecast designed for the increasingly popular IPods! This product can also be played on most personal computers. It's a great way to get extra forecast and weather content at your convenience.
* In today's podcast, I discuss the upcoming heat wave...Check it out:http://media.graytvinc.com/audio/Podcast1.mp3* You can point your IPod or MP3 receiving program to this RSS feed in order to subscribe:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/11Podcast
Northwest Flow...
* This is one of the trickiest patterns we encounter around here: the dreaded northwest flow aloft. The air from 5,000 to 10,000' feet above the ground is coming from the northwest. Tiny shortwaves get embedded in this flow and dive towards the south and southeast, bringing showers and thunderstorms with them. Our computer models are notoriously bad at resolving these tiny features, and therefore also miss the rain that comes along for the ride...
* The rain we expected here tonight is currently over central/southern Louisiana...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for parts of central LA as the storms keep pushing just east of due south.
* Weekend Preview: Sure looks hot. I believe that many places will see middle 90's at some point between Friday and Sunday, with an increase in humidity as well...
* Try to stay cool!
Back Home
* First, I need to thank Charles Daniel for his hard work while I was out West...He worked a double shift all week, then helped out our newest team member on Saturday...EDIT: Be sure to scroll down to read Lauren's first blog post...
* Also, I should probably recommend that if you ever get the chance to go to the Rocky Mountains, DO IT! What an incredible sight!
* I missed being home at times, but I did not miss our trademark summertime heat and humidity. We'll see more of that tomorrow, with readings approaching or exceeding 90 in most communities.
* Rain chances will begin to increase late tomorrow afternoon and especially into tomorrow night. Showers seem like a good bet, and a few thunderstorms will likely affect our area. The chance of severe weather will be mitigated by the fact that the storms are arriving at night; this will limit instability. But, we'll be keeping a close eye on things regardless.
* With a big trough over the eastern U.S., we will have a fairly cool day Wednesday. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower to middle 80's, with a few lingering showers. All in all, not bad for early June.
* We dry out and warm up by week's end....Lower 90's are a good bet, and we may be even warmer...Such is summer in the South!
All Female Weekend Crew, Woo Hoo!
Well, I am delighted to be a new member of the weekend crew! I have had such a warm welcome to Meridian by my co-workers, as well as other residents in the area. I'll tell you one thing, I'm so thankful that I have air conditioning in my car because afternoons here are ridiculously hot!!! My goal while I am here is to be informative about the weather, make it interesting, and to present it in a personable fasion. I genuinely hope to get to know all of our bloggers and answer any weather questions you might have! See you on Saturday!
-Lauren
