Twin States Weather Blog

Tropical Depression 1

* The first tropical depression of the 2006 hurricane season has formed...It is located just west of the western tip of Cuba, and will track into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today.

* The depression is not very well organized, but will likely become better organized over the next 24 hours. It is also likely that it will become a tropical storm (winds in excess of 39 mph) later today or tonight.

* Forecast: At this point, we continue to believe the depression will move northward into the Gulf of Mexico, and then turn northeast towards the Big Bend region of Florida. This is consistent with the National Hurricane Center's forecast track. If I had to pick a landfall point, it would be just north of Tampa, Florida.

* Impact here? If the above track is correct, the system will have almost no impact on our weather. We will probably see some drier and cooler air pulled down in the northerly flow as the system departs. It would be nice if we could get some rain out of this, we sorely need it.

* Uncertainty: Our computer model guidance had a wide array of track forecasts. Some models want to stall the system out in the Gulf of Mexico, while others bring it northward towards the central Gulf coast. So, there is still plenty of uncertainty in the track forecast. We can tell you with some confidence that it is highly unlikely that this system will become much more than a tropical storm. It's a bit too early in the year for that, but stranger things have occurred. We will continue to watch closely!

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 11:58 AM