Hail Reports Across Tornado Alley
* Be sure to scroll down for Josh's recap of SeCAPS. Sounds like a lot of great talks and a great time!
* Here are a few hail reports from the Great Plains and Arkansas. Lots of activity there today!
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0607 PM HAIL CLARKSVILLE 35.46N 93.47W
04/01/2006 E2.50 INCH JOHNSON AR EMERGENCY MNGR
HAIL OCCURRED IN DOWNTOWN CLARKSVILLE.
0450 PM HAIL 10 SSW ERICK 35.08N 99.93W
04/01/2006 E2.00 INCH BECKHAM OK AMATEUR RADIO
REPORTED 1.5 MILES NORTH OF BECKHAM COUNTY LINE ON HWY
0140 PM HAIL MARLOW 34.64N 97.96W
03/30/2006 E1.75 INCH STEPHENS OK AMATEUR RADIO
0735 PM HAIL 7 S KINGSTON 33.90N 96.72W
03/30/2006 E2.50 INCH MARSHALL OK EMERGENCY MNGR
0745 PM HAIL 3 SW COLBERT 33.83N 96.54W
03/30/2006 E1.75 INCH BRYAN OK EMERGENCY MNGR
0412 PM HAIL 8 N MATADOR 34.13N 100.82W
04/01/2006 E1.75 INCH MOTLEY TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
MOSTLY QUARTERS AND A FEW GOLFBALLS REPORTED BY MATADOR
FIRE DEPARTMENT
0520 PM HAIL 16 N PADUCAH 34.25N 100.30W
04/01/2006 E2.00 INCH COTTLE TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
A LITLLE LARGER THAN GOFLBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY
PADUCAH FIRE DEPARTMENT
SeCAPS Wrap
* What a great time in Mobile! Today was a very busy day, with many informative talks. Some highlights:
Presenter: Chris Franklin
Affiliation: WVUE-TV, New OrleansChris talked about the difficulties of covering Hurricane Katrina. He spent some time in New Orleans, before being shipped over to Mobile to cover the storm from the Fox station in Mobile.
They set up a makeshift studio in the Mobile facility and sent the signal back to their transmitter in Chalmette, LA. He anchored several hours of coverage, and spent over two months in Mobile. The WVUE studios in New Orleans were flooded and suffered severe damage. They will have a new, state of the art broadcast facility finished in June.
Presenter: Dr. Stephen Nelson
Affiliation: Tulane UniversityDr. Turner did a detailed discussion on the geologic factors that led to the severe floods in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina. Some levees were overtopped, while others breached. Some of the levee breaches were due to the floodwall composition.
The concrete that made up the wall was accompanied by 3/4" steel sheet pilings. But, these pilings were not driven far enough down into the ground. The soil under the ground was composed of peat in some cases, and the water moved UNDER the levee, breaching it on the other side.
Presenter: Ryan Wade and Dr. Keith Blackwell
Affiliation: University of South AlabamaMr. Wade and Dr. Blackwell recapped the hurricane season of 2005, with an emphasis on storms that struck the U.S. These two men, along with a few colleagues, make up the
Coastal Weather Research Center. They provide detailed hurricane forecasts to various private sector and governmental clients around the Southeast.
On a side note, Dr. Blackwell developed his own hurricane model years ago. It is called the BLackwell Over-surface Hurricane Wind model (BLOWH for short). The BLOWH model is quite accurate - more information about it can be found here:
BLOWH Model Info* Now time to concentrate on some March Madness...Pizza is on the way, and the UCLA/LSU game begins soon. Should be a fun game, I really don't have a horse in this race. Best of luck to both teams....
* Take care, and I hope you are having an excellent weekend!
Great Plains Severe
* Sounds like Josh is having a great time down in Mobile! Thanks to him for the updates. Having talked with Jon Davies personally a few times and having heard his presentations in the past, I know Josh is getting quite the treat this morning
* The pattern is a very active and highly amplified one right now. This is bring strong troughs through Tornado Alley about every 2nd or 3rd day and it looks like that pattern will continue for sometime. Here is something I have never seen before...The Storm Prediction Center is so confident that there will be large hail in Western Oklahoma and Southern Kansas that they put a 60% chance of severe hail within 25 miles of a point out there! That is amazing! I would imagine we will see some crazy reports of hail...such as baseball or softball sized. As I see them come through I will be sure to post some of the extreme reports.
To see that forecast click this link and run your mouse over the hail tab at the top of the graphic:
SPC Day 1 Outlook* More updates to come including Josh Johnson's experiences in Mobile, and a few fun facts on hail since that is the topic of the day in Tornado Alley (ironic) so be sure to check back!!!
Davies Time!
* I have a confession to make...I missed the previous talk to get a quick bite of breakfast. McDonald's is only about a half mile up the road, and I was quite hungry. Now, back to the Symposium...
* It's Jon Davies' turn to take the stage. This guy is on another level when it comes to tornado research; he is one of the brightest minds in the entire science.
* Some of this is very technical and uses parameters with which you may not be familiar. Here's a severe weather parameter glossary, you can reference it for any help you might need. You're also welcome to e-mail me with questions about any of these values.
Severe Weather Parameter GlossaryHere's a running summary of his presentation...
* Most important ingredients for tornadic supercells is CAPE (instability) and SRH (storm rel. helicity).
* Low-level mesocyclones develop when horizontal vorticity (rotation) in the atmosphere gets tilted vertically. These mesocyclones are often precursors of tornadoes.
* EHI (Energy Helicity Index) is an indicator of tornado potential - it combines SRH and CAPE. EHI values over 2.0 indicate a potential for low level mesocyclones.
* Problems with EHI are centered around when there is large SRH and small CAPE, especially during cool seasons. Also, cold core tornado situations (500 mb closed lows) give the index problems. Another "wild card" is the development of tornadoes with nonsupercell/nonmesocyclone tornadoes.
* According to work by Dr. Erik Rasmussen, EHI computed over the lowest 1 KM of the atmosphere is quite important.
* Deep layer shear helps organize storms and strengthen updrafts.
* Stronger supercells are supported by 0-6 KM Deep Layer Shear values in excess of 30 knots. Values above 40 knots are particularly supportive.
* Lower cloud bases (we call this the LCL) have importance in tornado development.
* Significant tornadoes usually occur with LCL heights at or below 1500 m. This is not a hard, fast rule (many of these are not). In fact, tornadoes often occur in the northern Plains with higher bases. Where we live, LCL heights are almost always low during severe weather days.
* Low LFC heights and sizable CAPE in low levels (roughly below 3 km) have some relevance in tornado development.
* In some of his recent research, Davies found that a majority of F1-F4 tornadoes occur with MLLFC (Mixed Layer Level of Free Convection) heights between 500m and 2000m.
* STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) is very important, as is EHI...these are used to cross-reference various atmospheric conditions.
* Basic environment ingredients for supercell tornadoes are instability, enhanced horizontal vort. near ground, deep layer shear (0-6 km), relatively low cloud bases, (low LCL), and sizable CAPE in the lowest part of the atmosphere.
* Here are some rough numbers to use...Remember, nature doesn't know parameters, these are only rough values!
0-1 ML EHI 2.0 - 3.0
ML CAPE 500-1000 J/kg
0-6 km shear 30-35 kts
MLLCL heights below 1200-1500m
0-3 KM MLCAPE 40-60 J/kg
MLLFC less than 2000 - 2500 m.
It should definitely be noted that these are NOT exact forecasting tools. Getting too specific into parameters and numbers is not the correct way to approach forecasting tornadoes. The atmosphere does not recognize thresholds, there are many exceptions...
* Look for areas of focus and convergence where storm development might be expected and then assess how the parameter fields may affect that area.
* Fit the parameter fields with the surface pattern.
SeCAPS Update
* Good morning! The Southeast Coastal and Atmospheric Processes Symposium continues today in Mobile, Alabama. So far, the speakers have been great. After hearing from Major John Gordon yesterday evening, we were fortunate to hear two more great presentations. Here are some notes...
Presenter: John Haynes
Affiliation: NASA* NASA plays an integral part in weather support operations through their research satellites.
* Some of these satellites are amazing - in fact, one particular satellite has 250 meter resolution! That means it can discern details only 250 meters (a little over 820 feet) apart...Pretty incredible stuff.
* NASA is a partner in TRMM - Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. This uses various radar products and equations to assess rainfall within tropical systems. An interesting fact this mission found is that tropical cyclones usually have vertical convective development in excess of 12 KM just before rapid intensification.
Presenter: Dr. Mark Powell
Affiliation: NOAA, Hurricane Research Division* Dr. Powell and his team are working on a new way to measure hurricane intensity.
* He believes, as I do, that the Saffir-Simpson scale is lacking in many important areas.
* One product they are considering is TKE: Total Kinetic Energy. This would assess the storm's ability to produce damage by incorporating its density, drag coefficient, and wind strength.
* Dr. Powell shared with us the physics behind wind damage in hurricanes. He said that turbulence can create small scale "ripples" that cause roof failure. He also stated that once winds get above 115 knots (approx. 125 mph), roof failure becomes much more likely.
* I will post as many updates as possible...But, I forgot my AC adapter in Meridian, so I'm typing this on a nearby desktop computer. So, there is a small chanc that it may be later this evening before I can post again - but, check back for updates throughout the day!
TGIF
Here's 11 1-Liners for Friday
* A supercell thundertorm moved through today prompting a tornado warning for portions of Lauderdale, Newton, Neshoba, and Kemper counties
* A funnel cloud was reported by the public near Union
* While no tornado touched down, heavy rain and hail were common from that storm
* A tornado hit my father's business in Papillion, NE (suberb of Omaha)
* It was rated an F0, the lowest end of the Fujita Scale
* The tornado tossed bunks of metal studs (not light) all the way over the building
* Thankfully nobody was injured
* We don't expect any in the way of severe weather this weekend
* Other than a stray shower, we should see a fair amount of sunshine and warm temperatures both Saturday and Sunday.
* Josh is probably eating some good barbeque constantly this weekend
* I'm jealous
Greetings from Mobile!
* Whoops - was a bit surprised to see the tornado warning earlier this afternoon...Renny was in the office and handled the situation well. We had a few reports of hail near Rose Hill in Jasper County, and a funnel cloud was reported northeast of Union in southern Neshoba County.
* Major John Gordon has taken the stage, he is a very dynamic representative from the National Weather Service in Louisville, Kentucky. In fact, he is the man in charge at that office. He also serves as a Hurricane Hunter with the US Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters out of Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi.
* He is headling the operations of the Hurricane Hunters during the 2005 hurricane season. They used to fly a WC-130 H, but have upgraded to a new model (WC-130 J).
* They have 10 full time crews taht serve the Mid-Atlantic to the International Date Line.
* The first step of their mission is a low level investigation to determine if the storm is forming.
* Major Gordon said that the new plane has a stronger engine, and that this likely saved the plane from crashing during Hurricane Wilma! Pretty dramatic stuff...
* I will try to post another update later tonight. However, in my old age, I forgot my power supply back in Meridian. I'm working on finding another power supply...Will keep you posted.
Tornado Warning
* Storms firing quick. Most dangerous storm (and only one with a warning) is just east of Collinsville near Meridian NAS, Daleville, and Black Water. Here is the text from that warning.
...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 415 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN KEMPER
AND NORTHERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...
AT 356 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BLACK WATER...OR ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OF MERIDIAN STATION...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BLACK WATER AND MERIDIAN NAVAL AIR STATION BY 410 PM CST...
SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR
HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER
YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Sunrise in the Smokies
* I wanted to pass along this GREAT link...It's a webcam from Look Rock in the Great Smoky Mountain National Park:
http://www2.nature.nps.gov/air/webcams/parks/grsmcam/grsmcam.cfmHere is a webcam from Purchase Knob, NC, also in the Smokies:
http://www2.nature.nps.gov/air/webcams/parks/grsmpkcam/grsmpkcam.cfm* What amazing scenery...I hope you have a great weekend!
Podcast: Friday Edition
* I'm going to post tomorrow's podcast a bit early - I am working the morning shift tomorrow, and will report back here in the wee hours of the morning. After completing the morning shift, I will head for Mobile, Alabama and the Southeast Coastal and Atmospheric Processes Symposium (SeCAPS).
I'm quite excited about learning some new forecasting techniques! As long as there is wireless internet available, I will post updates from the Symposium. I will also try to create a special podcast with some of the things we learn over the weekend. I will also try NOT to eat too much barbeque at the Brick Pit...The chance of that occurring is right up there with our chance of snow today - 0%.
* This is the Newscenter 11 Podcast - a forecast designed for the increasingly popular IPods! This product can also be played on most personal computers. It's a great way to get extra forecast and weather content at your convenience.
* Today's Podcast discusses the landfall of Cyclone Gloria in Australia, tornadoes in the Plains, and an amazing snowfall stat from out West! And, as always, your complete weekend forecast...Check it out:http://media.graytvinc.com/audio/Podcast1.mp3* You can point your IPod or MP3 receiving program to this RSS feed in order to subscribe:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/11Podcast
Spring Weather
* What an active weather day for our neighbors to the north and northwest...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are affecting parts of the Plains today. Some details are available in our 11 1-Liners segment:
1
1 1-Liners for Thursday
- There is a big severe weather outbreak unfolding in the Plains.
- An Oklahoma TV station captured a tornado live via helicopter.
- A tornado is believed to have hit downtown Omaha.
- Lightning started a grass fire in Nebraska.
- We anticipate some showers and storms tomorrow.
- There will most likely not be any severe weather.
- For that, we are thankful.
- A huge Colorado snowstorm is finally over.
- The highest 48 hr total: 26" in Coal Bank Pass, Colorado.
- Several other locales reported over one foot.
- Forgive my fascination with snow.
* Tomorrow still offers some rain chances...Showers and an occasional thunderstorm will roll through tomorrow afternoon. The rain will linger into early Friday evening, but the front should stall and then lift back northward as a warm front. Right now, our thinking is that the front will lift far enough north that Saturday will be mostly dry. But, we cannot rule out a passing shower.
* This weekend is a busy one. Arts in the Park is Saturday, so be sure to head out to Bonita Lakes for that! Pack the rain gear just to be safe, but you will most likely not need it.
* Unfortunately, I will not be able to check out Arts in the Park this year. The big coastal weather symposium in Mobile is this weekend, and I'm heading south to attend that. Should be a great opportunity to learn some new things about weather!
Live Tornado Coverage
* There is a significant outbreak of severe weather today in Oklahoma...Here is some streaming live coverage from a few Oklahoma City stations:
KFORhttp://www.channeloklahoma.com/video/8033571/detail.html* They use helicopters, cellular phone based video, and all kinds of tools to cover tornadoes out there...Pretty interesting stuff.
Podcast: Thursday Edition
* This is the Newscenter 11 Podcast - a forecast designed for the increasingly popular IPods! This product can also be played on most personal computers. It's a great way to get extra forecast content at your convenience!
* Today's content features a remarkable story of dedication from a cooperative weather observer in Georgia. Check it out:http://media.graytvinc.com/audio/Podcast1.mp3* You can point your IPod or MP3 receiving program to this RSS feed in order to subscribe:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/11Podcast
Crazy Colorado Weather...
* Quick note: Check out the latest observation from Wolf Creek Pass, Colorado:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KCPW.html* They are reporting moderate snow with lightning! Neat stuff...
11 1-Liners for Wednesday
* Forgive the pause in our 11 1-Liners segment - been very busy this week with meetings and working on new projects...
11 1-Liners for Wednesday
- More sunshine today than we were thinking.
- This has warmed us up - 72 right now in Meridian.
- I've heard no complaints about that.
- Showers/storms are likely Friday.
- We do not anticipate any severe weather.
- We will include very small rain chances for the weekend.
- Don't curse me; the weekend won't be a washout.
- What a snowstorm over the Rocky Mountains!
- Thundersnow is possible in Colorado, 13-20" is expected.
- I've seen thundersnow once, in Alabama during March of 1993.
- Have you seen thundersnow? Share with us by leaving a comment...
* As mentioned in the 1-Liners segment, we are going to include a small chance of a few showers Saturday and Sunday. The latest computer model guidance is a bit more sluggish with the front, stalling it out just north of here. That will be enough for a few showers here and there, mainly on Saturday.
* I hope you are enjoying the Podcast - I have received great feedback on it so far, and we appreciate you taking the time to listen. If you haven't tried it out, scroll down and give it a listen...
Podcast: Wednesday Edition
* This is the Newscenter 11 Podcast - a forecast designed for the increasingly popular IPods! This product can also be played on most personal computers. It's a great way to get extra forecast content at your convenience!
* Today's content features the forecast through the weekend, in addition to an update on a HUGE winter storm out West. Check it out:
http://media.graytvinc.com/audio/Podcast1.mp3* You can point your IPod or MP3 receiving program to this RSS feed in order to subscribe:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/11Podcast
Out of Season
* While late March and early April is usually a stormy and active period around here, the weather this week will be neither stormy or active. We do expect a few showers, and a thunderstorm is not out of the question. But, the threat of severe weather is almost zero.
* A very weak (the technical word for this is "diffuse") front is draped along the I-20 corridor. While this will provide some weak surface convergence and lift, it won't be enough to give us widespread rain - just a few sprinkles and showers. In fact, many places will stay dry. But, we do believe the front will be good enough to keep us fairly cloudy through tomorrow.
* Another front will move towards us Friday. While this front will cause more lift, we expect the best upper level support and dynamics to pass well north of here. A few showers are possible Friday, and we could see some thunderstorms. But, at this time, we don't anticipate severe weather.
* WOOOHOOO, THE WEEKEND: I know many are looking forward to the weekend. I certainly am. This is the weekend of the Southeast Coastal and Atmospheric Processes Symposium on the campus of the
University of South Alabama in Mobile. Jon Davies, one of the sharpest weather research minds in the country, will be presenting. Also presenting will be Dr. Keith Blackwell (renowned tropical weather expert) and Major John Gordon (hurricane hunter and NWS Louisville boss), among many others. Here's the full agenda:
SeCAPS AgendaThrow in some GREAT food from places like the
Brick Pit (best barbeque I've ever had) and The Original Oyster House, and you have all the makings of a great weekend. I'm hopeful the wireless internet connection will be active from the conference room. If it is, I will provide some updates in this space...
Interesting Tornado Stat
* It seems as though we are in the midst of a signficant tornado drought. While we certainly won't complain, we should all be aware that March and April are historically our prime months for tornadoes. And, tornado season in the South is a long way from over...
* I received this interesting stat from Alan Gerard, the Meteorologist In Charge of the NWS in Jackson:
In the Jackson County Warning Area, we have not had a strong tornado in the month of March in over 10 years. The last strong tornado in March in our CWA was on March 7, 1995, in Tensas Parish, LA. The only other strong tornadoes in March since 1990 in our CWA occurred on March 9-10, 1992. That was also the event that had the last violent tornado in March in our CWA, which occurred in Washington/Sharkey/Humphreys counties - there was also a strong tornado during that event in Lauderdale county. Just to give some idea of how unusual this is, in the southeast United States March is the second most active month for strong tornadoes, ranking just behind April.
* Be sure to scroll down for Tuesday's Podcast!
Podcast: Tuesday Edition
* This is the Newscenter 11 Podcast - a forecast designed for the increasingly popular IPods! This product can also be played on most personal computers. It's a great way to get extra forecast content at your convenience!
http://media.graytvinc.com/audio/Podcast1.mp3* You can point your IPod or MP3 receiving program to this RSS feed in order to subscribe:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/11Podcast
Unsettled Week Ahead...
* Be sure to scroll down for our Podcast - an audio forecast that can be played on IPods and other MP3 players, as well as personal computers. It's an interesting combination of weather trivia and a forecast. Check it out!
* Our weather this week will be unsettled. We'll be dealing with several storm systems over the next 7 days, but it appears that the heaviest rain/strongest storms will go north of us. No complaints here!
* Storm 1: This one isn't necessarily a storm, but rather a weak front that will stall across the Deep South. This front will serve as the focus for shower and thunderstorm development tomorrow. We don't expect a wash-out, but a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible tomorrow. This front will stay draped across Mississippi and Alabama Wednesday and Thursday, leaving rain chances in our forecast. Again, not a wash-out.
* Storm 2: By late Thursday, an area of low pressure will be moving through the Central Plains. This will have a trailing cold front, which will slice towards the Southeast. Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely as this front approaches Friday. The showers could linger into early Saturday, but at this time we'll be optimistic and forecast a mostly dry weekend. Stay tuned - this is a highly changeable forecast.
* Storm 3: Yet another area of low pressure will form in Texas late Sunday. This will begin moving eastward along the I-40 corridor, and will bring rain chances with it as well. Showers could fall as early as Sunday afternoon or evening, but we expect most of the rain with this feature to come during the day Monday. The upper level wind fields do not look terribly impressive for any severe weather chances at this time. But, as we all know, forecasting the precise details of a system a week away can be murky...We'll be watching.
* A busy day is ahead: I have to prepare the forecast products (internet, TV graphics, etc.), then do the weather on the news at 5pm and 6pm. Then, at 7pm, I'll be doing a storm spotting presentation for LEMA highlighting the difficulty of spotting storms in the Southeast. This is a topic I'm quite familiar with, having chased storms in the South since I received a driver's license. All of that chasing, and I still haven't seen a tornado....Some lousy storm chaser I am!
Podcast: Monday Edition
* This is the Newscenter 11 Podcast - a forecast designed for the increasingly popular IPods! This product can also be played on most personal computers. It's a great way to get extra forecast content at your convenience!
http://media.graytvinc.com/audio/Podcast1.mp3* You can point your IPod or MP3 receiving program to this RSS feed in order to subscribe:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/11Podcast
Pleasant Weekend
* WOW - This is a great example of why it's called March Madness. The Final Four is 75% set:
UCLA
LSU
George Mason
Villanova or Florida (Florida leads 45-38 at the time of this writing)
That's a 2 seed (UCLA), a 4 seed (LSU), an 11 seed (George Mason), and either a 1 or 3 seed. My bracket is done; stick a fork in it! I hope your bracket is faring better than mine.
* Back to weather - what a nice weekend. Hard to find any clouds around here, but we did see some cold temperatures this morning. Meridian's Key Field hit 30 degrees, so I feel sure that many outlying areas probably saw upper 20's for at least a few hours.
* For the rest of this week, WARM is the word. We will likely see a few 70 degree readings in some backyards tomorrow, but the really warm stuff arrives over the latter half of the week.
* Rain chances: While there is a chance of showers from Tuesday on through the end of the work week, it seems that the greatest rain chances will come on Tuesday and again on Thursday. There could be some strong storms involved Thursday, but with the recent cool/dry airmass, it will take some time for the atmosphere to "recharge" with the warm/moist airmass that supports severe weather.
* Time to snag a bite of dinner...I am covering the evening shift for Renny tonight, so I'll be in the office later watching things!
