Rain!
* Rain is on the way...for tonights blog post I will post the forecast discussion I write when I forecast. I realize some of it may be a little too meteorological, but it just goes to show what all is considered in a forecast.
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Forecast Discussion: Winds have shifted to south and the Gulf has opened up, bringing moisture back across East Mississippi and West Alabama. A series of shortwaves embedded in the overall longwave trough pattern will enhance lift for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will hold in the mid to upper 70s, as per GFS and NAM guidance numbers and good correlation to 850mb temperatures of 12 C. On Sunday, forecast sounding suggest peak CAPE values of 1000 J/kg and LI of -2 or -3. The limiting factor for severe weather will be the lack of wind shear. The models are suggesting a squall line, potential severe, moving from the Arkansas Delta into the Mississippi Delta before it weakens as it moves through central MS. While a few wind gusts of 40 mph are possible, we don’t expect any severe weather on Sunday.
The models are very consistent in bringing shortwaves through again on Monday with the strongest of the three in on Tuesday. Have gone 70% precipitation chance on Tuesday in response to the stronger shortwave moving through and ample moisture supply.
ECMWF (Euro) and GFS bring a potent shot of Canadian air in here by Weds and keep it here for quite some time. I have a hard time keeping the trough in here that long due to teleconnections suggesting no blocking in the Atlantic Ocean and therefore a progressive pattern which would allow the trough to bring the cold air, move out, and warm us back up. However, with such good consistence between both models and number of runs, will hold the cooler air in here through next weekend. If models hold true, freezing temperatures could once again be possible for a few nights in a row."
Weekend of Changes
* Many of changes afoot over the next couple of days. Saturday will be a nice day - warm, pleasant and plenty of sunshine. The big changes begin late Saturday afternoon. Our winds will shift around to southwest, and that will usher in a much warmer and more moist airmass.
* That moist airmass will set the stage for our best chance of significant rain in weeks. A front will approach the state from the west on Sunday, and this will combine with upper level dynamics to kick off a round of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be strong across northwest Mississippi, but we do not expect any severe weather problems around here.
* The front will hang up for early next week. We will likely see a few showers and thunderstorms Monday, with a better chance of rain Tuesday. The front will push through Tuesday and we'll see a transition to much cooler weather by early next week.
* I hope you have a fantastic weekend!
NWS Press Release
Here's a press release from our friends at the NWS in Jackson...
MISSISSIPPIANS URGED TO PREPARE FOR TORNADOES
Jackson – For the last five years, the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, in coordination with the National Weather Service, have recognized November as Tornado Awareness Month.
However, this year it is even more important for residents to be prepared for severe weather as our state continues recovery and rebuilding efforts from Hurricane Katrina, said MEMA Director Robert Latham.
“We now have more than 15,000 families in some type of mobile home or travel trailer,” he said. “Our first priority is to make sure these residents are given the information that could very well help save lives.”
MEMA is working with local officials along the Gulf Coast to pre-identify locations that could be opened as shelters if forecasts predict severe weather in those areas, Latham said.
Anyone who lives in a mobile home or other unsubstantial structure should evacuate to a more substantial structure when severe weather threatens. If you are in a substantial structure, such as a brick home or office building, then go to a small interior room during severe weather.
Due to the fact that tornadoes can occur at night, residents are urged to check weather forecasts before going to bed and have a source of receiving weather warnings that will wake them in case severe weather threatens.
For residents who are able to purchase one, a National Oceanic & Atmosphere Administration, or NOAA, weather radios sell for approximately $30 to $70 and sound an alarm when severe weather is approaching. The radios will broadcast severe weather watches and warnings directly from the National Weather Service. The radios can also be programmed for specific counties. For families who do not have a weather radio, or who cannot purchase one, it is recommended they have a battery-powered radio to be able to hear weather watches and warnings.
Some of worst Mississippi November tornadoes in recent years:
Nov. 23-24, 2004: Seventeen tornadoes, five of which were F2 or greater. One person killed in Winston County.
Nov. 10, 2002: Ten tornadoes, two of which were F2 or greater. An F3 tornado caused extensive damage in Columbus, including to the Mississippi University for Women campus. One person was killed in Lowndes County.
Nov. 24, 2001: Nine tornadoes, five of which were F2 or greater including two F4 tornadoes in Bolivar, Madison and Washington counties. A total of five people were killed: two in Madison, two in Sledge, one in Panola County and one in Quitman County.
Other severe weather events in recent years that occurred in fall/winter months:
· Nov. 18, 2003: Severe weather in Hancock, Jasper, Lauderdale, Sharkey, Simpson, Smith & Warren counties, no fatalities reported.
Dec. 19, 2002: Tornado struck Newton County, no fatalities reported.
Secondary Severe Weather Season
* As we get into November, we are entering our secondary severe weather season. Now is a good time to consider purchasing a NOAA Weather Radio. Given the recent disaster of a tornado striking a mobile home park in the middle of the night, it's certainly easy to see that anyone living in a mobile home should own a weather radio and have a plan of action in the event of a tornado warning.
* There was PLENTY of time between when a tornado warning was issued and when the tornado struck the trailer park. The reason those people lost their life was because they were relying on tornado sirens rather than weather radios. Sirens are designed for people outdoors. If you can hear the siren inside your home, you are simply unlucky enough to live too close to the siren.
* I can almost assure you of what will happen in the wake of this disaster...A Congressman who represents those who were lost will make a well-intentioned but logically flawed push to purchase and install more tornado sirens. THIS IS NOT THE ANSWER! But, this is certainly the pattern that most tornado disaster responses follow. The answer is a NOAA Weather Radio in each home - and community weather shelters in every mobile home park.
Weekend Thoughts
* I had to check the calandar over and over today to make sure it was really mid-November. Our high temperature today was 86! As a native Nebraskan this certainly is out of the ordinary for me. But in recent talks with family and friends, sounds like things have been quite warm up north as well.
* Had a great time today at the Southern Farm Bureau PGA golf tournament at Annandale today. I did break a sweat with it being so warm, but the coloring in the trees was beautiful! The course was in great shape and the volunteers did a fantastic job to make it an enjoyable event. If you enjoy golf and get the opportunity to watch a professional event, I would highly recommend going. The quality of golf was impressive and, as always, made me realize that I am not good at golf -- and probably never will be! But that won't stop me from playing.
* Unfortunately an F3 tornado hit Evansville, Indiana overnight last night causing 19 deaths and over 200 injuries. As we get into our secondary severe weather season, this will serve as a good reminder that we need to be prepared. Make sure to get your first aid kits ready with flashlights and batteries! Also, we highly recommend getting a weather radio. Weather radios will alert you when a warning is issued for your area and can be a lifesaver! For more information on weather radios you can email me at
renny.vandewege@wtok.com. We also feature a product called Wireless Weather. Warnings will be delivered to your cell phone. You can sign up for that product at
www.wtok.com
