Rain!
* Rain is on the way...for tonights blog post I will post the forecast discussion I write when I forecast. I realize some of it may be a little too meteorological, but it just goes to show what all is considered in a forecast.
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Forecast Discussion: Winds have shifted to south and the Gulf has opened up, bringing moisture back across East Mississippi and West Alabama. A series of shortwaves embedded in the overall longwave trough pattern will enhance lift for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will hold in the mid to upper 70s, as per GFS and NAM guidance numbers and good correlation to 850mb temperatures of 12 C. On Sunday, forecast sounding suggest peak CAPE values of 1000 J/kg and LI of -2 or -3. The limiting factor for severe weather will be the lack of wind shear. The models are suggesting a squall line, potential severe, moving from the Arkansas Delta into the Mississippi Delta before it weakens as it moves through central MS. While a few wind gusts of 40 mph are possible, we don’t expect any severe weather on Sunday.
The models are very consistent in bringing shortwaves through again on Monday with the strongest of the three in on Tuesday. Have gone 70% precipitation chance on Tuesday in response to the stronger shortwave moving through and ample moisture supply.
ECMWF (Euro) and GFS bring a potent shot of Canadian air in here by Weds and keep it here for quite some time. I have a hard time keeping the trough in here that long due to teleconnections suggesting no blocking in the Atlantic Ocean and therefore a progressive pattern which would allow the trough to bring the cold air, move out, and warm us back up. However, with such good consistence between both models and number of runs, will hold the cooler air in here through next weekend. If models hold true, freezing temperatures could once again be possible for a few nights in a row."
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