Severe Weather Update
* The 0z (Evening) run of the NAM is mostly complete. Here is some output of note, valid at 9:00 AM tomorrow morning:Surface Based CAPE: 664.8 J/kg (sufficient)
0-3 KM Storm Rel. Helicity: 411.7 (high)
0-1 KM Storm Rel. Helicity: 353.5 (high)
850mb Winds: 50 knots (57.5 mph) (high)
* These numbers still lead me to believe there is a substantial threat of severe weather and tornadoes tomorrow. The best chance will come between 8am and 4pm...
* I think it is quite likely that the Storm Prediction Center will upgrade parts of MS/AL to a "High" risk with their 6z (midnight) Day 1 Outlook. I will post another update when that product is issued to highlight our latest thinking and discuss the SPC's thinking as well...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 8:47 PM
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