Severe Weather Threat Overnight and Thursday:
* Good morning everyone. First thing to catch my attention this morning is that the SPC has added a "MODERATE RISK" of severe weather on its Day 2 outlook for much of East Mississippi and Central and South Alabama.
* SPC Discussion for our area:
...ERN MS...AL...GA...
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...MID 60 DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...CELLULAR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND 60-70 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND 20-30 KT 1KM SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES...SOME STRONG. THE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALONG AS THE JET SPREADS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.
* A few notes from the NWS Jackson's Hazardous Weather Outlook from last night:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK...BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADOES AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH THE GREATEST RISK SHIFTING TO ALONG AND EAST OF THEINTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN EXPLOSIVE SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION AND PERSONS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA ARE URGED TO KEEP UPTO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS.
* Summary: Primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds with the risk of a few tornadoes. The tornado threat increases greatly if isolated storms start out ahead of a main line that will sweep through the Twin States Thursday evening.
* Plan accordingly: I strongly recommend if you and your family have not picked out a safe place in your home to go during severe weather, take a few minutes now while there is no active severe weather to find that safe place. Remember a small room, near the center, away from windows. A basement, a hallway, an interior bathroom, or an interior closet.
* We'll talk more about the severe weather threat on Good Morning Meridian at 6:00AM and don't forget to check Andrea and I out on the radio as Good Morning Meridian is now simulcast on 910 AM WALT. Josh will also have updates here on the 'blog and tonight at 5:00 and 6:00 on Newscenter 11.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
posted by Chris Whited @ 3:55 AM
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