Twin States Weather Blog

Tropics Get Active...

* We are watching a cluster of thunderstorms down in the western Caribbean Sea. This cluster of storms is showing signs of becoming better organized, and could become a tropical depression later today. The National Hurricane Center will be sending a plane to investigate the system this afternoon. They are scheduled to be leaving the runway as I type this. Here's a complete rundown of our thinking on how this will affect us,if it should develop.

Intensity: Upper level winds will likely support some gradual strengthening with this system - and water temperatures are pretty warm. The intensity forecast will hinge on how well the low level circulation within the storm gets organized. Let me emphasize that I expect any intensification to be "gradual" strengthening. Major hurricanes are very rare this time of year, and I would be surprised if this storm became much more than a Tropical Storm.

Track: The GFS computer model has been very insistent on bringing this system northward, with a landfall along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Here's this morning's run of the GFS:

GFS Valid 7 AM Saturday

The NAM, however, shows a slower track, with landfall likely occurring along the Louisiana coastline:

NAM Valid 7 PM Saturday

The models seem to be reaching a consensus that this system will affect the northern Gulf Coast. But, until the system actually develops, it's still too early to try to pinpoint any potential landfall location. That being said, indications are that the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf Coasts could be under the gun by the weekend.

If you have beach plans, don't cancel yet. We all know how difficult tropical weather forecasting can be. My advice is to simply continue checking out this space over the next few days.

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 11:31 AM