Twin States Weather Blog

Early Morning Update

* Finished up with the Southeast Coastal and Atmospheric Processes Symposium today...Very interesting stuff. The highlight of the day was hearing from tropical weather guru Dr. Keith Blackwell. Dr. Blackwell talked about precipitation cores descending to the surface in open-eye tropical systems. These descending cores can bring small areas of very strong winds to the surface. The research is preliminary, but definitely shows promise. Also promising was a presentation by Patrick Gatlain from the NWS in Huntsville, Alabama. He is researching how jumps in lightning strikes can indicate the formative stages of a tornado. Again, still preliminary - but shows promise.

* Quick forecast update...I've been in the conference for the better part of the last two days, but will try to post a quick and dirty analysis of the severe weather threat. Here goes:

As best as I can see, things seem just slightly out of phase for a major severe weather outbreak in our neck of the woods. CAPE values remain low, but I get the idea that the models are understimating those. The best upper level dynamics are just north of us, but close enough to still cause concern.

I believe we'll see a few isolated storms try to develop late Monday afternoon. The "cap" will be rather strong; breaking this cap will be a difficult process. But, if we can get some sun, we should be able to do it. Any of these storms ahead of the line could be severe, with hail, wind, and isolated tornadoes all possible.

Then, a squall line sweeps through Monday night into early Tuesday morning. These storms will pack a punch, damaging wind and large hail will be the main threat, but a tornado or two within the line is not out of the question.

Will be interested to see the new Day 2 Outlook from the SPC...For now, time for me to get some rest.

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 1:03 AM