Twin States Weather Blog

Severe Weather Threat Limited:

* The large mass of rain and thunderstorms (what we call an MCS) across Western Mississippi seems to be moving a bit quicker than the model runs have been showing so it looks like the severe weather threat is limited. Instability is not developing as quickly as thought and the overcast we have seen across the Twin State area has blocked sunshine for the most part which has not allowed the atmosphere to destabilize. Having said that, isolated strong storms are still possible across East Mississippi and West Alabama tonight and Sunday morning across the area. A few of those storms could become severe. As the MCS moved eastward, we'll have to watch for intensification. I do note on the radar image above the isolated strong cell down in Marion and Lamar county in South Mississippi just west of Hattiesburg. Radar is showing some light rain moving across Neshoba and Leake counties. There is also an isolated storm popping in Southern Smith County. We'll have to watch these isolated cells this afternoon and evening ahead of the MCS.

* Here is the afternoon and evening Hazardous Weather Outlook from the NWS over in Jackson:

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST
ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST OUT OF LOUISIANA HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION MORE
RAPIDLY THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT
OF UNSTABLE AIR AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
...AND LESSENED THE RISK OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

...FLOODING...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
HARRISONBURG...LOUISIANA...TO VICKSBURG...TO CARTHAGE
TO DE KALB LINE. THE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS IT
GETS INTO SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER
THE SAME AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
SHOULD BE COMMON IN THIS AREA...WITH SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHEREVER STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY. IN SPITE
OF VERY DRY RECENT CONDITIONS...THIS COULD CAUSE SOME PONDING
OF WATER AND MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS.

* More updates here on the blog as needed and Rob has your forecast at 6:00 tonight on Newscenter 11.

Labels: Forecast Discussion

posted by Chris Whited @ 2:52 PM