Twin States Weather Blog

Day 1 Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center has issued their Day 1 outlook, which is a forecast of what they expect to unfold tomorrow into tomorrow night. Here is a pertinent excerpt:

"STRONGLY FORCED BOUNDARY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCHOF THE ARKLATEX INTO AR
AND NRN LA.  VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORTSUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES.  AT THIS TIME IT/S NOTENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER THE
DOMINANT STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DISCRETE...OR PERHAPS EVOLVE
INTO A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE.  IF DISCRETE STRUCTURES CAN BE MAINTAINED...
TORNADO THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED AS STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO MS/AL AFTER DARK.

Their outlook agrees well with our going forecast and reasoning. Shear is very high, instability is forecast to be low. But, if enough instability is present to allow the primary mode of thunderstorm to be supercellular (discrete), the tornado threat could be much more substantial that we currently expect. At this point, I still believe the prime threat to be in the form of damaging straight-line winds.

Also, a final note....Winds outside of any thunderstorm activity will be quite gusty today. Many places will see gusts up to 35 mph well before any storms arrive, so you might consider securing any loose items like garbage cans, grill covers, patio furniture, etc.

Labels: Forecast Discussion

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 2:17 AM