Twin States Weather Blog

Severe Weather Likely Tomorrow Evening and Tomorrow Night

* We are starting a 3pm Instant Messaging briefing with our partners at the National Weather Service in Jackson. I will use this space to update you on their thoughts on the severe weather episode that is likely tomorrow evening and night across Mississippi and Alabama:

"...the models imply that a setup that already looked threatening a day or two ago has gotten even more so today. NAM and GFS agree on more surface moisture and instability. based on this, our thinking is that this now has the potential to become a very dangerous event."


"...it looks like some hail-producing thunderstorms may be possible with this activity into the early afternoon hours - mainly north of I-20."


"...shear will obviously not be a problem - 0-3 km SREH values are off the chart greater than 1000 m2/s2 in some areas. any storms that develop in advance of the line and are rooted in the surface will have a significant tornado threat. both gfs/nam agree on convection ahead of the squall line and see no reason to dispute that given the strong moisture advection with this system and height falls moving in."


"...our thinking jives pretty well with SPC that the most significant risk of widespread wind and tornadoes would generally be over southern and western sections of our area - S of I-20 and W of I-55. But there will be a significant threat everywhere."


* Again, we are mostly in agreement with NWS Jackson. We believe the primary threat here is strong damaging winds, but isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Labels: Forecast Discussion

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 2:55 PM